An analysis of the black market exchange rate in a developing economy — The case of Turkey

Zusammenfassung Eine Analyse des Schwarzmarkt-Wechselkurses in Entwicklungsl?ndern — Das Beispiel der Türkei. — Die Schwarzmarkt-Wechselkurse in Entwicklungsl?ndern sind nicht unabh?ngig davon, welche Politik betrieben wird und wie sich die anderen ?konomischen Variablen (wie Einkommen, Preisniveau und Inflationserwartungen) entwickeln. In diesem Aufsatz wird mit Hilfe türkischer Daten ein einfaches Modell entwickelt und gesch?tzt, das gleichzeitig Schwarzmarkt-Wechselkurse, Preisniveau, Realeinkommen und reale Geldmenge bestimmt. Die Ergebnisse dynamischer Simulationen zeigen, daΒ sich dann, wenn Rückwirkungen aus den übrigen Teilen der Wirtschaft zugelassen werden, die Wirkungen wirtschaftspolitischer MaΒnahmen auf die Schwarzmarkt-Wechselkurse erheblich von denen unterscheiden, die man in einem Ein-Gleichungs-Modell beobachten würde, in dem alle erkl?renden Variablen als exogen angesehen werden.

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Résumé Une analyse du taux de change sur le marché noir dans une économie développante. — Les taux de change sur le marché noir dans les pays en voie de développement ne sont pas indépendants des politiques appliquées ou des autres variables économiques comme par exemple le revenu, le niveau des prix ou les expectatives d’inflation. Cet article a construit, estimé et simulé, en utilisant des données de la Turquie, un modèle simple qui simultanément détermine le taux de change sur le marché noir, le niveau des prix, le revenue réel et l’encaisse réelle. Les résultats des simulations dynamiques démontrent que, si l’on permet des rétro-actions du reste de l’économie, les effets d’un changement de politique sur le taux de change sur le marché noir sont substantiellement différents á ceux qu’on observerait avec un modèle á une seule équation dans laquelle toutes les variables explicatives sont supposément exogènes.

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Resumen Un análisis del tipo de cambio negro en una economfa en desarrollo. — Tipos de cambio de mercado negro en pai’ses en desarrollo no son independientes de las polfticas aplicadas o de otras variables econ?micas tales como el ingreso, nivel de precios o expectativas de inflation. En este articulo se ha construido, estimado y simulado, sobre la base de datos de Turquia, un modelo simple que détermina simultáneamente el tipo de cambio de mercado negro, nivel de precios, ingreso real y balances monetarios reaies. Los resultados de simulaciones dinámicas muestran que, cuando se permiten realimentaciones del resto de la economia, los efectos de un cambio de pol?tica dado sobre el tipo de cambio de mercado negro son sustancialmente diferentes de aquéllos que habrian sido observados con un modelo de ecuación única que asume que todas las variables explicativas son exógenas y no permite ninguna realimentación.

     

Can hedging tell the full story? Reconciling differences in United States aggregate- and industry-level exchange rate risk premium

While the importance of currency movements to industry competitiveness is theoretically well established, there is little evidence that currency risk impacts US industries. Applying a conditional asset pricing model to 36 US industries, we find that all industries have a significant currency premium that adds about 2.47 percentage points to the cost of equity and accounts for approximately 11.7% of total risk premium in absolute value. Cross-industry variation in the currency premium is explained by foreign income, industry competitiveness, leverage, liquidity, and other industry characteristics, while its time variation is explained by US aggregate foreign trade, monetary policy, growth opportunities, and other macro variables. The results indicate that methodological weakness, not hedging, explains the insignificant industry currency risk premium found in previous work, thus resolving the puzzle that currency risk premium is important at the aggregate stock market level, but not at the industry level.     

Quality of Education,Economic Performance and Institutional Environment

This paper addresses two questions. First, how does the quality, rather than the quantity, of education impact economic performance? Second, does the quality of education have a larger impact on economic performance in countries with better institutions (i.e., social and political variables which affect economic outcomes)? Using data from more than fifty countries, we observe that there is a positive relationship between the quality of education and GDP per capita. In addition, we find that the quality of education has a more beneficial effect on GDP per capita in countries with better law and order conditions, government stability, and overall institutional environment. These results remain unchanged under various scenarios.     

Does Culture Drive Innovation and Export Quality?

Quality upgrading is important for two reasons: it helps us understand the determinants of trade flows between countries and it promotes economic development. We study the cultural determinants of export quality using Hofstede's four original cultural dimensions to provide hypotheses on R&D spending, patents per capita and export quality. We then employ three-stage least squares analysis and confirm our hypotheses. For example, we find uncertainty avoidance encourages small-scale continuous improvement initiatives and substantially increases export quality. Power distance and individualism increase export quality, while masculinity has a small impact on quality. Finally, we provide implications for understanding the direction of trade and developing policy.     

The Underpricing of Venture and Nonventure Capital IPOs: An Empirical Investigation

In this paper, we examine the premarket underpricing phenomenon within a group of venture-backed and a group of non-venture-backed initial public offerings (IPOs), using a stochastic frontier approach. Consistent with previous research, we find that venture-backed IPOs are managed by more reputable underwriters and generally are associated with less underwriter compensation. However, unlike other papers in the literature, we find that the initial-day returns of venture-backed IPOs on average, are, higher than the non-venture-backed group. We observe a significantly higher degree of premarket pricing inefficiency in the initial offer price of venture-backed IPOs. Further, our results show that a significant portion of the initial day returns is due to deliberate underpricing in the premarket.     

Price hike of staple food,nutritional impact and consumption adjustment: evidence from the 2005–2010 rice price increase in rural Bangladesh

This paper studies the nutritional impact of the rice price increase between 2005 and 2010 on households in rural Bangladesh and their resulting adjustment in consumption of rice, non-rice food and non-food items. We compare net rice buyers, who suffer from a negative income effect, with self-sufficient households that do not suffer from any such effect. Our findings indicate that rural households in Bangladesh cope well with the surge in the domestic rice price as indicated by the absence of any effect on their calorie intake and dietary diversity. In fact, both types of households similarly change their consumption of rice, non-rice grain, pulses, protein, fruits and other items. Furthermore, we do not find any evidence of buyers’ switching towards low-quality items in a food group. In a separate analysis, we compare net rice sellers with self-sufficient households and arrive at a similar conclusion. In both cases, income plays a crucial role in the consumption of non-rice food and non-food items, indicating the importance of effective income support programs at the time of price shocks in staple food items.