Estimating the Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rate for Potential EMU Members

In this study, we attempt to examine the possibility of emergence of significant fluctuations of the exchange rates in the future for the candidate EMU countries. In doing so, we estimate the equilibrium rate of the nominal effective exchange rate for Poland, Hungary, Slovak Republic and Malta through the BEER and PEER approaches. While the PEER-based estimation implies a large misalignment rate for the Hungarian forint, the BEER-based analysis shows that the present exchange rates of the countries considered do not deviate significantly from their equilibrium rates. As a consequence, based on BEER analysis, we do not expect large fluctuations in the effective exchange rates among the currencies considered. Hence, the relevant effective exchange rates are expected to be relatively stable. As a matter of fact, the entry of those countries into EMU is not expected to weaken the stability of Euro.

Financial Globalization and Banking Crises in Emerging Markets

Bank crises in emerging economies have been a feature of the recent global crisis, and their incidence has increased in the post-Bretton Woods era. This paper investigates the impact of financial globalization on the incidence of systemic bank crises in 20 emerging markets over the years 1976–2002 using measures of de facto and de jure financial openness. An increase in foreign debt liabilities contributes to an increase in the incidence of crises, but foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities have the opposite effect. A more liberal de jure capital regime lowers the incidence of banking crises, while a regime of fixed exchange rates increases their frequency. The results of the econometric analysis is consistent with the experience of East European and central Asian emerging markets, which attracted a relatively large proportion of capital flows in the form of debt in recent years and have been particularly hard hit by the global financial crisis.     

Designing a competency-based human resources organization

New organizing factors are emerging as human resources professionals seek performance breakthroughs, with process and competency emerging as key factors in determining how the HR function is organized. While the process focus rides the wave of interest in total quality management and reengineering, a growing number of organizations see competence as the key to enduring performance and to making HR most effective. This article combines experience from the authors' work with some emerging possibilities to describe a competency-based approach for designing a high performing HR organization. © 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Measurement of total factor productivity growth and biases in technological change in Western Australian agriculture

This study investigates productivity growth in broad-acre agriculture in Western Australia. Tornqvist indices of three output groups (crops, sheep products and other) and five input groups (livestock, materials and services, labour, capital and land) are constructed and discussed. Indices of total output and total inputs are also derived and used to form an index of total factor productivity, that is observed to grow at an average annual rage of 2·7%. The input and output indices are also used in the estimation of output supply and input demand equations, derived from a flexible profit function. The Generalized McFadden functional form is used, because it is possible to impose global curvature upon it without loss of flexibility. Asymptotic chi-square tests reject the hypotheses of Hicks-neutral technical change in inputs and in outputs. Technical change is observed to be ‘materials and services’ saving relative to the other input groups, and also appears to favour wool and sheepmeat production relative to the other output groups.     

Nonlinear dynamical systems and inventory management

Surprisingly, deterministic time series can generate highly irregular, random-appearing trajectories. These deterministic time series result from nonlinear dynamical systems of differential or difference equations. The random appearance displayed by these systems is called nonlinear dynamical complexity. Properties of nonlinear complex systems include aperiodic random appearance, sensitive dependence on initial conditions and model parameters, and nonstationarity. Experiments involving the operation of simulated business environments and theoretical nonlinear dynamical models for inventory are reviewed to explore motivating factors that can give rise to demand with nonlinear complexities. The experimental and theoretical evidence reviewed indicates that nonlinear complexities in demand have significant implications for inventory management. Thus, researchers and practitioners in inventory management need to consider these properties when choosing inventory management methods. Characteristics of nonlinear dynamical systems and their implications for inventory management are presented in this paper. The use of the Brock, Dechert, and Scheinkman (1987) (BDS) test for nonlinear dependence is demonstrated on actual demand data.     

The differential impact on stockholder wealth of various antitakeover provisions

This paper examines the relationship between the passage of six types of corporate antitakeover provisions (supermajority, classified boards, fair-price, reduction in cumulative voting, anti-greenmail and poison pills) and stockholder wealth. Our event study from a sample of 381 firms that adopted 486 antitakeover provisions in the 1984 to 1988 period indicates a strongly negative effect on stockholder wealth, supporting the management entrenchment view of the antitakeover provisions. Moreover, the empirical results of this paper indicate that the market reacts equally negatively to both non-operating provisions that require stockholder approval and to operating provisions that do not require stockholder approval. However, separate analyses of the antitakeover provisions provide some support for the argument that stockholders discriminate between individual provisions.