Heterogeneous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-Run in High Frequency Returns

Recent empirical evidence suggests that the interdaily volatility clustering for most speculative returns are best characterized by a slowly mean-reverting fractionally integrated process. Meanwhile, much shorter lived volatility dynamics are typically observed with high frequency intradaily returns. The present article demonstrates, that by interpreting the volatility as a mixture of numerous heterogeneous short-run information arrivals, the observed volatility process may exhibit long-run dependence. As such, the long-memory characteristics constitute an intrinsic feature of the return generating process, rather than the manifestation of occasional structural shifts. These ideas are confirmed by our analysis of a one-year time series of five-minute Deutschemark-U.S. Dollar exchange rates.     

Corporate Risk Management and the Incentive Effects of Debt

This paper demonstrates how the incentive of manager-equityholders to substitute toward riskier assets, commonly referred to as the “asset substitution problem,” is related to the level of observable risk in the firm. When observable and unobservable risks are sufficiently positively correlated, increases (decreases) in observable risk generate the incentive for manager-equityholders to increase (decrease) unobservable risk. Thus, credible commitments to hedge observable risk can benefit the firm's manager-equityholders by reducing the incentive to shift risk and the associated agency cost of debt. This provides a positive rationale for hedging diversifiable risk at the firm level.     

No more dancing for gods: constructing Taiwanese/Chinese identity through the Ilisin

Increasingly there is a desire amongst political and administrative authorities concerned with the management of English professional football to extend the ‘sense’ of transformation witnessed in the popularity and cultures of support surrounding the domestic game to the national team. However, there is a widely held perception that both the social formations constituted around the England team and media representations of them have proven resistant to the cultural shift (imagined or otherwise) associated with domestic club football. Concern within the UK Home Office, the English Football Association (FA) and some supporters' groups has led to a high profile attempt to overcome this ‘resistance’ and ‘re‐market’ the image of England supporters in order to create a more socially inclusive supporter base. Drawing on ethnographic and textual data collected in the build up to, and during, the 2002 men's football World Cup finals, this paper considers the frameworks of knowledge associated with this intervention and their impact on the cultural forms of support for the England team during the World Cup, in specific locations both at ‘home’ and ‘away’. This consideration then gives way to an interpretation of the extent to which ‘Englishness’ continues to be performed in culturally exclusive ways that emphasize the contingency of new and emergent social formations.     

ROLE OF VOLUNTARY PROGRAMS IN AGRICULTURAL NONPOINT POLLUTION POLICY

Voluntary programs' effectiveness in reducing agricultural pollution is under debate in the professional literature, within government regulatory agencies, and among legislators. In general, non-farm business owners bear little or none of the costs of environmental degradation that their business activities cause. However, farmers who reside on the farm may bear some of the costs associated with using chemicals. As a result, voluntary programs encouraging adoption of management practices that simultaneously improve on farm and off-farm environmental quality may not require subsidizing farmers for their full loss in profits. However, farmers likely will not adopt regulatory agencies' recommended management practices that do not positively affect on farm environmental quality unless subsidies exceed full adoption costs .     

Output Gaps In Real Time: How Reliable Are They?

The output gap is of central interest to policymakers. Being unobservable, however, its estimation is prone to error, particularly in real time. Errors result from revisions to the data and unavoidable end-point problems associated with the econometric techniques used to estimate it.
This is the first study of the seriousness of these problems for Australia. Over a 28-year period, we obtain real-time output-gap estimates which are unbiased and highly correlated with final estimates derived with the latest data and the benefit of hindsight. We conclude that reasonably reliable output gap estimates can be obtained in real time.     

Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market

The behavior of quote arrivals and bid-ask spreads is examined for continuously recorded deutsche mark-dollar exchange rate data over time, across locations, and by market participants. A pattern in the intraday spread and intensity of market activity over time is uncovered and related to theories of trading patterns. Models for the conditional mean and variance of returns and bid-ask spreads indicate volatility clustering at high frequencies. The proposition that trading intensity has an independent effect on returns volatility is rejected, but holds for spread volatility. Conditional returns volatility is increasing in the size of the spread.