Estimating net lottery revenues for states

Based on 1980–95 data, this paper estimates and forecasts net lottery revenues for states with and without lotteries. This study indicates that a multi-state estimation is improved when a time-series and cross-section technique is used. Forecasting results are also improved when unequal time series in the data and less-than-full first years of operating lottery are controlled. For states without lotteries, the time-series and cross-section estimation indicates that only two of 14 states without a lottery would have generated net lottery revenue of more than $100 million. The number increases to five of 14 in the cross-section estimation.     

Words versus Actions about Organ Donation: A Four-Year Tracking Study of Attitudes and Self-Reported Behavior

Historically, the proportion of the American public that expresses positive views about organ donation exceeds the proportion that actually signs an organ donor card (ODC). The public seems to say one thing but does another. In July 1994, The Advertising Council, Inc., in conjunction with the Coalition on Donation, launched a major promotional campaign to educate the U.S. public about organ and tissue donation. This article reports on a four-year study tracking attitude toward organ donation and transplantation and its relationship with direct experience (knowing an organ recipient) and intermediate behaviors. The intermediate behaviors investigated are donating blood and signing an ODC. No significant changes were noted in attitude toward donation, but the proportion of individuals who had signed an ODC increased significantly.     

Reinforcement-Based Adaptive Learning in Asymmetric Two-Person Bargaining with Incomplete Information

The sealed bidk-double auction is a mechanism used to structure bilateral bargaining under two-sided incomplete information. This mechanism is tested in two experiments in which subjects are asked to bargain repeatedly for 50 rounds with the same partner under conditions of information disparity favoring either the buyer (Condition BA) or seller (Condition SA). Qualitatively, the observed bid and offer functions are in agreement with the Bayesian linear equilibrium solution (LES) constructed by Chatterjee and Samuelson (1983). A trader favored by the information disparity, whether buyer or seller, receives a larger share of the realized gain from trade than the other trader. Comparison with previous results reported by Daniel, Seale, and Rapoport (1998), who used randomly matched rather than fixed pairs, shows that when reputation effects are present this advantage is significantly enhanced. A reinforcement-based learning model captures the major features of the offer and bid functions, accounting for most of the variability in the round-to-round individual decisions.     

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN TRANSITION COUNTRIES: BALANCING THE BIASES?

In the past several years, efforts have been made to introduce the 1993 System of National Accounts (1993) SNA ) in most of the formerly centrally planned economies. In doing so, a number of problems have emerged, some of which are particular to the situation of these countries. Some of these problems will probably cause overestimates of national accounts variables, others will cause underestimates, and it would be purely coincidental if these effects cancel out. This paper discusses the most disconcerting issues in this situation, and possible solutions.     

Guidelines for Corporate Trademark Licensing

Licensing a trademark in many firms, if it occurs at all, is an incidental ad hoc arrangement. An unorganized approach can mean trouble. It can also mean the firm is losing an opportunity to exploit fully a valuable asset. Tom Meyer, Cathie Tinney, and Terry Tinney argue that trademark licensing is deserving of careful attention and planning.     

THE EFFECT OF MARKET PROXY REBALANCING POLICIES ON DETECTING ABNORMAL PERFORMANCE

In this paper, effects on the measured abnormal performance of test portfolios are compared against market proxies having the same or different rebalancing policies. Results show that the common practice of comparing buy-and-hold test portfolios with equally weighted market proxies produces lower Jensen [ 7 ] alphas and lower alpha t-values. Comparing buy-and-hold test portfolios with value-weighted market proxies produces higher portfolio betas and alphas, but lower alpha t-values. Finally, comparing buy-and-hold test portfolios with buy-and-hold market proxies produces the most powerful tests of abnormal performance.     

Supervising the Unethical Selling Behavior of Top Sales Performers: Assessing the Impact of Social Desirability Bias

This study measures social desirability bias (SD bias) by comparing the level of discipline sales managers believe they would administer when supervising unethical selling behavior with the level of discipline they perceive other sales managers would select. Results indicate the presence of SD bias; the sales manager respondents consistently claimed that they would be stricter while their peers would be more lenient. Using an analytical technique that takes social desirability bias into account, it appears that sales managers use of discipline is affected by the sales performance of the salesperson being disciplined resulting in more lenient discipline for top sales performers. In addition, the more lenient treatment for top sales performers persists even when there is a pattern of a prior ethical infraction and the existence of an explicit organizational policy proscribing the act in question. Sales managers believe that, like themselves, others would be stricter when an unethical act is committed for the second time but not as strict as they personally would be. A within-subjects interaction effect indicates more SD bias under the condition of the unethical act being committed for the second time.