Driven by aspirations,but in what direction? Performance shortfalls,slack resources,and resource‐consuming vs. resource‐freeing organizational change

Research summary : Prior literature drawing on the behavioral theory of the firm has not considered how resource constraints impact the direction of organizational change in response to performance shortfalls relative to aspirations. We argue that decreasing financial resources resulting from substantial performance shortfalls and the absence or availability of slack resources together affect the emphasis on different types of organizational change in response to performance shortfalls. Using data on the acquisition and divestment behavior of 530 companies in the information and communications technology sector from 1992 to 2014, we find that the frequency of resource‐consuming acquisitions and of resource‐freeing divestments are affected differently by performance below aspirations and that these relationships are moderated by the level of financial slack. Managerial summary : This paper examines whether firms respond to performance shortfalls with acquisitions or divestments. We argue and show that the closer the firm is to the aspired level of performance, the more likely it is to respond with resource‐consuming acquisitions to close the performance gap, whereas the further it is from aspired performance, the more likely the firm is to respond with divestments to free resources. Financial slack weakens these relationships between performance relative to aspirations and acquisitions or divestments such that it increases the likelihood of a response through acquisitions while it reduces the likelihood of a response through divestments. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Short Sales and Price Discovery in the Hong Kong Real Estate Market

Indirect real estate (IRE) returns are often shown to lead direct real estate (DRE) returns. Apart from differences in liquidity, transaction costs, and management skills, the DRE market is also less complete than the IRE market—when negative shocks arrive, one can only short IRE (e.g., real estate stocks or REITs), but not DRE. This study investigates if short sales in the IRE market convey any information to the DRE market. Based on high‐frequency (weekly) property price data in Hong Kong from 2000 to 2012, we find that short sales in the IRE market led DRE returns, even after controlling for the lagged IRE returns in a VAR model. This supports an information spillover mechanism in which the DRE market learns private information that is not reflected in IRE returns. The spillover effect, however, weakened after the recent global financial crisis because the increased uncertainty over the credibility of individual firms made short sales more reflective of firm‐specific information than real estate market fundamentals.     

Employee satisfaction and turnover intention: A comparative analysis between front-of-house and back-of-house employees in casino-entertainment venues

ABSTRACT

This study investigates job location and its relationship with employee turnover intention within the casino-entertainment industry. The researchers analyzed turnover intention at the supervisor and company level from the perspective of employees who hold front-of-house or back-of-house jobs in three Nevada casinos and their corporate office. The results of this research fill existing gaps in the academic literature related to turnover intention and provide beneficial implications for industry and academic practitioners. Organizations within the casino-entertainment industry may develop strategies related to the management of human capital that could provide fiscal and operational benefits.     

Seeing relationships through the lens of psychological contracts: the structure of consumer service relationships

Serving as mental models, psychological contracts guide consumers’ service interactions with their service providers. This study incorporates a psychological contract perspective into the relationship marketing literature, exploring service customers’ beliefs about the terms and conditions of the resource exchange process and the types of relationships they form with service providers. It provides new insights that explain why and how some customers respond favorably to a company’s relationship overtures and investments while others do not. A latent class analysis on a sample of 700 consumers across three different service industries reveals that consumers form four distinct types of psychological contracts: relational, standard, transitional, and captive. To further validate the differences between the contract types, open-ended responses from the respondents were sorted by each class. The distinctive themes that emerged provide a richer understanding of the characteristics of each class beyond those inferred from the quantitative results. Each contract type is also profiled against its underlying level of trust, satisfaction, and commitment to understand the relationship between the contract types and these traditional relationship marketing variables. Marketers can differentiate their relationship marketing strategies and allocate their resource investments more effectively by segmenting consumers according to their psychological contract type.     

Das Wiederholungsparadoxon

In this paper we discuss how repetition of a single statement affects its perceived credibility. Using an experimental design, our results support previous psychological studies on the “truth-effect”, which have shown that repeated messages are considered more credible than non-repeated messages. In addition, our study sheds light on the unanswered question why the truth-effect vanishes or reverses if statements are repeated too often. Analysis strongly points to a parallel, indirect negative effect, caused by participants showing reactance as a consequence of repetition.     

Buchbesprechung

Buchbesprechung

Buchbesprechung     

Output Expectations and Forecasting of UK Manufacturing

This paper analyses both quarterly data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Survey on respondents’ expectations of recent and forthcoming manufacturing output and monthly Office of National Statistics (ONS) figures on actual manufacturing output within the UK. Quarterly output expectations of the CBI manufacturers are explained from the monthly ONS observations using a bounded rationality approach. The logistic formulation models the diffusion process across respondents. There is a backward-looking CBI Survey perspective, explained by past ONS observations, and a forward-looking perspective, explained from future ONS statistics. Also, the forecasting of monthly manufacturing output from earlier values, along with the quarterly CBI Survey information, is examined and tested against the alternative Pesaran/Thomas method. The study provides econometric evidence for the validity of the logistic model and shows that bounded rationality can explain the formation of predictions among business managers in the UK manufacturing sector. The emerging consensus from the literature, supported by this paper, is that the logistic format is a superior approximation to the true data generating process compared with the earlier standard Anderson/Pesaran/Thomas approach. An adjustment to the Survey is used, which achieves perfect symmetry with up and down versions of the data. The benefits of this adjustment are tested in the forecasting section.

Testing the Unstable Middle and Two Corners Hypotheses About Exchange Rate Regimes

The recent rash of international currency crises has generated considerable interest in the role that exchange rate regimes have played in contributing to these crises. Many economists have argued that efforts to operate adjustably pegged exchange rate regimes have been a major contributor to “the unstable middle” hypothesis and some have argued that this unstable middle is so broad that only the two corners of hard fixes or floating rates will be stable in a world of high capital mobility—the two corners or bipolar hypothesis. Two recent empirical studies by researchers at the International Monetary Fund reach opposing conclusions on these issues. We examine the issue further and show that conclusions can be quite sensitive to how exchange rate regimes are grouped into categories and the measures of currency crises that are used. In general we find that the dead center of the adjustable peg is by far the most crisis prone broad type of exchange rate regimes, but that countries need not go all the way to freely floating rates or hard fixes to substantially reduce the risks of currency crises.

Does Disclosure Regulation Work? Evidence from International IPO Markets*

This study examines whether IPO disclosure requirements mandated by countries’ securities laws are associated with variation in IPO underpricing in international IPO markets. Our empirical analysis uses a unique sample of 6,025 IPOs from 34 countries over the period from 1995 to 2002. We show for the first time that the stringency of disclosure requirements for IPO prospectuses is negatively associated with the extent of IPO underpricing, after controlling for various country‐ and firm‐level determinants of underpricing. Moreover, we find that the disclosure effect on IPO underpricing is moderated by the extent of a country’s capital market integration. Taken together, our findings are consistent with the view that increased disclosure regulation appears to reduce IPO underpricing and hence the cost of equity, and that institutional factors such as capital market integration play an important role in understanding the economic consequences of disclosure regulation in international IPO markets.     

Policy Determinants of School Outcomes under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from South Africa

In this paper, we assess the determinants of secondary school outcomes in South Africa. We use Bayesian model averaging techniques to account for uncertainty in the set of underlying factors that are chosen among a very large pool of explanatory variables in order to identify the subset of explanatory variables most strongly associated with the dependent variable. Our analysis indicates that the socio‐economic background of pupils, demographic characteristics such as population groups (Black and White), as well as geographical locations account for a significant variation in pupils’ achievement levels. We also find that the most robust policy determinants of pupils’ test scores are the availability of a library at school, the use of IT in the classroom as well as school climate.