Estimating the Impact of Anti-dumping and Anti-cartel Actions Using Intervention Analysis

Intervention analysis is proposed as a method for estimating the effects of anti-dumping actions in the presence of a domestic cartel. Data requirements and modelling effort compare favourably with traditional structural model approaches. The method is applied to an anti-dumping action brought to the European Commission and in which the European producers of the product were fined after an anti-cartel action by the Commission covering an overlapping period. Interven tion analysis is applied to distinguish the effects of the anti-dumping action from those of changes in cartel behaviour     

Unlocking the transformative potential of branchless banking in Indonesia

Branchless banking has the potential to significantly enhance financial inclusion among Indonesia’s large and geographically disparate unbanked population and to connect Indonesia’s micro, small and medium enterprises to the global economy. Why has the branchless-banking revolution not yet materialised? Constrained by regulation, deployments have failed to attract a critical mass of users. Indonesia’s fragmented telecommunications sector has made it difficult for providers to emulate the success stories in other countries, in which dominant providers are competing for the market with a proprietary platform. In Indonesia, it is likely that a considerable degree of interoperability will be required for providers to unleash network effects and attract users. Indonesia’s providers are experimenting in this space. Recognising branchless banking’s potential to accelerate financial inclusion, Bank Indonesia appears committed to improving the regulatory framework. This article identifies the components of an enabling regulatory environment. Success in Indonesia would provide a model for a more widespread uptake of transformative branchless banking.     

Assessing the classification of work-relatedness of fatal incidents: a comparison between Australia,New Zealand and the United States

As part of a larger study comparing work-related fatal injury of workers in Australia, New Zealand and the United States, an assessment was made of the similarities and differences between the three countries in identifying fatal incidents as work-related or not. The researchers in each country independently classified 333 brief scenarios, describing a variety of fatal incidents, into one of nine categories related to work: worker, bystander, commuter, volunteer, student, suicide, other, unknown and none of the above. Complete agreement with the classification was moderate (62%), but agreement when classifying scenarios as working, not working or unknown was much higher (full agreement for 80% of scenarios; Kappa =0.71). Only 5% of scenarios were classified differently by all three countries. Other main findings of the study were that there is variation between countries in the interpretation of what is and what is not work-related, and variation in the amount or type of information required to make a definitive classification. Common circumstances described in the scenarios for which there was some disagreement in classification included domestic violence incidents at work, volunteer workers, business trips, social functions connected to work, hobby farmers and some possible bystander incidents that occurred on farms or on the road. The results suggest that, even without the use of standard definitions, comparisons between the datasets of the countries involved in this study can be made with reasonable confidence. However, they also emphasise the importance of minimising ambiguity in the definitions used, and of understanding the manner in which the definitions are applied, when comparing results between studies.     

Demand uncertainty and foreign trade in the UK tobacco industry

The concern about the potential health harzards of various tobacco products in the UK has led many tobacco companies to exploit markets in underdeveloped countries. These markets are relatively safe since the health risks of tobacco are not yet fully known. The possibility, therefore, arises that domestic producers might exploit certain markets to provide a form of profit insurance, exporting surpluses when domestic demand is unexpectedly low. This study concentrates on the UK cigarette industry. However, similar analysis could be performed for any uncertain market where a certain alternative exists that can be exploited at relatively low cost.     

Cellular clouds

This paper progresses an analysis of what it means to be a cellular network operator and what form the ownership and control of future cellular networks may take. Alternative modes of ownership may allow for the creation of more flexible cellular networking environments in which competition for packages of resources, that is, the licenced spectrum, the RAN and core network, ensures that the most efficient and innovative architectures, services and applications are delivered to the consumer. This paper develops the concept of the Cellular Network Cloud and Utility Cellular Networking as a means to explore the possibilities for such revolution in the way in which cellular networks are owned and operated. Changes to current industry practices which would help to meet the objectives of more flexible and competitive network ownership and control are proposed.