Entrepreneurs,formalization of social ties,and trustbuilding in Europe (fourteenth to twentieth centuries)1

The establishment of trust is a key component of economic activity and social ties can make business dealings work better. However, we do not know much about how economic actors created new social ties deliberately in order to pursue their objectives. This article analyses the way in which merchants and entrepreneurs used specific rituals to establish formal social ties, with the intent of protecting their business relationships. It focuses on relational instruments that until now had been neglected, particularly godparenthood and marriage witnessing. It shows that formalization, ritualization, and publicity of ties were used by entrepreneurs to establish trust with their business associates, for example when information was asymmetric or when institutions were perceived as inefficient in guaranteeing mutual good behaviour. The analysis covers a long period, from the late middle ages to today. It pays particular attention to the consequences of the Reformation in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries and of the industrial revolution in the nineteenth. Contrary to the received wisdom, it suggests that formal social ties such as godparenthood continued to play an important role in economic activity during and after the industrial revolution. New databases on early modern Italy and nineteenth‐century France are used.     

PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION IN THE FACE OF A MEANS‐TESTED PUBLIC PENSION

We investigate whether households adjust their asset portfolios just prior to retirement in ways that are consistent with maximizing eligibility for a means‐tested public pension. We utilize detailed micro data for a nationally‐representative sample of Australian households to estimate a system of asset equations which are constrained to add up to net worth. Our results provide little evidence that healthy households or couples are responding to the incentives embedded in the means tests determining pension eligibility by reallocating assets. While there are some differences in asset portfolios associated with having an income near the income threshold, being of pensionable age, and being in poor health, these differences are often only marginally significant and are not clearly consistent with the incentives inherent in the Australian age pension eligibility rules. Any behavioral response to the incentives inherent in the age‐pension means test appears to be predominately concentrated among single pensioners who are in poor health.     

On the Impact of Innovation on the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve

When modeling the effects of innovation on the marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve, many studies in environmental economics have posited, implicitly or explicitly, a uniform downward shift. The purpose of this paper is to thoroughly investigate this claim in a simple theoretical framework by introducing innovation in the production function of a price‐taking, polluting firm in four economically meaningful ways. We establish that the effects of innovation on the MAC curve depend critically on the specific type of innovation, and that only innovation in end‐of‐pipe technology leads to a uniform downward shift of the MAC curve. A second class of results points to the fact that for other types of innovation in the overall production process, the scope for an upward shift of the MAC curve in response to innovation is easier to justify theoretically. These results call for a re‐appraisal of various results in environmental policy obtained in theoretical work relying on this postulate.     

Informed Trading Intensity

We train a machine learning method on a class of informed trades to develop a new measure of informed trading, informed trading intensity (ITI). ITI increases before earnings, mergers and acquisitions, and news announcements, and has implications for return reversal and asset pricing. ITI is effective because it captures nonlinearities and interactions between informed trading, volume, and volatility. This data-driven approach can shed light on the economics of informed trading, including impatient informed trading, commonality in informed trading, and models of informed trading. Overall, learning from informed trading data can generate an effective informed trading measure.     

Financial Expertise as an Arms Race

We show that firms intermediating trade have incentives to overinvest in financial expertise. In our model, expertise improves firms’ ability to estimate value when trading a security. Expertise creates asymmetric information, which, under normal circumstances, works to the advantage of the expert as it deters opportunistic bargaining by counterparties. This advantage is neutralized in equilibrium, however, by offsetting investments by competitors. Moreover, when volatility rises the adverse selection created by expertise triggers breakdowns in liquidity, destroying gains to trade and thus the benefits that firms hope to gain through high levels of expertise.     

Consumer Credit: Changing Patterns in Supply and Demand Variables,and Their Implications

Retail outlets and finance companies were the first businesses to offer consumer installment credit, and for many years they enjoyed a virtual monopoly in that area. This situation has changed. There has been a gradual but continual decrease in their percentage of market share, and a corresponding increase in that held by commercial banks and credit unions. This study seeks to explain this change in market share, to measure the effects of selected supply and demand variables which may have contributed to it, and to assess the potential ramifications for the above lenders and the borrowing public at large.     

BENEFITS OF PRESERVING OLD-GROWTH FORESTS AND THE SPOTTED OWL

This paper presents results from a national contingent-valuation study of the economic benefits of preserving old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest. The study elicits "market-like" valuation responses from U.S. households concerning the benefits of a conservation policy for the northern spotted owl. These data provide a basis for estimating the benefits of preservation in terms of average household willingness to pay. Existing cost estimates are used to compute threshold prices that the benefits of the policy must exceed for the policy to be efficient. Benefit/cost ratios are calculated using "best" and "lower-bound" estimates of the benefits of preservation. Under all combinations of assumptions, the estimated benefits exceed the costs of the conservation policy.