NONPARAMETRIC BOOTSTRAP PROCEDURES FOR PREDICTIVE INFERENCE BASED ON RECURSIVE ESTIMATION SCHEMES*

We introduce block bootstrap techniques that are (first order) valid in recursive estimation frameworks. Thereafter, we present two examples where predictive accuracy tests are made operational using our new bootstrap procedures. In one application, we outline a consistent test for out‐of‐sample nonlinear Granger causality, and in the other we outline a test for selecting among multiple alternative forecasting models, all of which are possibly misspecified. In a Monte Carlo investigation, we compare the finite sample properties of our block bootstrap procedures with the parametric bootstrap due to Kilian (Journal of Applied Econometrics 14 (1999), 491–510), within the context of encompassing and predictive accuracy tests. In the empirical illustration, it is found that unemployment has nonlinear marginal predictive content for inflation.     

The Commission,ENP and Construction of Borders

The thrust of the article is to investigate the reasons for the ambiguous character and results of the ENP. The argument is that these are a result of tensions inherent in the discourses produced at various sites in the EU that are involved in the development and implementation of the Policy. These tensions result in the simultaneous construction of mutually exclusive types of borders at the external edges of the EU. The main contribution of the present study to this argument is the detailed empirical evidence it provides for these tensions through the examination of the discourse of the European Commission. The article introduces the concept of soft/ hard borders as a very good analytical tool for studying the ENP and conducts a double-reading of the major types of Commission documents related to this Policy. The main finding is that at present some of the main hurdles the ENP is facing are a result of insufficient transformation of the assumptions and routinised practices that guide policy-making. These lead to underlying themes in Commission discourse that preclude the establishment of the necessary soft external border for the EU. Instead they promote the construction of more traditional hard borders.     

Beyond market failures: the market creating and shaping roles of state investment banks

The paper develops a typological framework of the roles of state investment banks (SIBs) in the economy. The typology identifies four different roles: countercyclical; developmental; venture capitalist; and challenge-led. The paper conceptually elaborates the typology by first providing a historical overview of SIBs, and then discussing how the mainstream “market failure theory” justifies them. It then advances a different conceptualization based on insights from heterodox economics, showing that all roles of SIBs are more about market creating/shaping rather than market-failure fixing. The paper concludes with a proposal of a new agenda for research on SIBs based on our typological framework.     

Performance measurement in R&D: exploring the interplay between measurement objectives, dimensions of performance and contextual factors

Measuring research and development (R&D) performance has become a fundamental concern for R&D managers and executives in the last decades. As a result, the issue has been extensively debated in innovation and R&D management literature. The paper contributes to this growing body of knowledge, adopting a systemic and contextual perspective to look into the problem of measuring R&D performance. In particular, it explores the interplay between measurement objectives, performance dimensions and contextual factors in the design of a performance measurement system (PMS) for R&D activities. The paper relies on a multiple case study analysis that involved 15 Italian technology-intensive firms. The results indicate that firms measure R&D performance with different purposes, i.e. motivate researchers and engineers, monitor the progress of activities, evaluate the profitability of R&D projects, favour coordination and communication and stimulate organisational learning. These objectives are pursued in clusters, and the importance firms attach to each cluster is influenced by the context (type of R&D, industry belonging, size) in which measurement takes place. Furthermore, a firm's choice to measure R&D performance along a particular perspective (i.e. financial, customer, business processes or innovation and learning) is influenced by the classes of objectives (diagnostic, motivational or interactive) that are given higher priority. The implications of these results for R&D managers and scholars are discussed in the paper.     

Understanding modes of civil case disposition: Evidence from Slovenian courts

We contribute to the scant empirical literature on the functioning of courts in the post-socialist world by analyzing civil case disposition in Slovenia. We first characterize basic empirical patterns in modes of civil case disposition in Slovenian local courts. We then examine court-level determinants of the incidence of in-court settlements versus trial-based judgments. Consistent with the theory that both judges and disputing parties take into account their respective private benefits and costs when choosing their preferred mode of case disposition, we find evidence that the incidence of in-court settlements versus trial-based judgments increases with the number of all case filings per judge. Thus, court resources and demand for court services influence not only total court output, as previously established in the literature, but also how cases are disposed of.     

Convergence in per-capita GDP across European regions: a reappraisal

This paper studies convergence in per-capita GDP across European regions over the period 1980–2000. We use median unbiased estimators of the rate of convergence to the steady-state growth path, while allowing for unrestricted patterns of heterogeneity and spatial correlation across regions. By permitting the model parameters to be completely different across regions, not only we avoid imposing strong a priori assumptions but we are also able to analyze the spatial patterns in the estimated coefficients. Our results differ from those found using conventional estimators. The main differences are: i) the mean rate of convergence is much lower; ii) for most regions this rate is zero; iii) the number of regions for which we reject equality in trend growth rates is substantially lower. We also find significant evidence of correlation of growth rates across neighbor regions and across regions belonging to the same country.     

Asymptotic Revenue Equivalence in Auctions

We study the revenue in auctions of a single object when the number of bidders becomes large. We show that all sequences of auctions belonging to a class of mechanisms have limiting expected revenue equal to the expected best-use value of the object. An important special case that is covered is common value auctions, but more generally not even affiliation of values is assumed. This provides an asymptotic revenue equivalence result for settings beyond that of private values. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D44, C72.