Estimates regarding demographic developments in Romania by quantitative and qualitative assessments

The enlargement of the European Union and the liberalization of the labour market will substantially influence the demographic indicators in New Member States. The paper aims to identify and synthetically present some factors of influence which triggered by the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century a series of characteristics defining the changes of the demographic model and structure of population on age brackets. Romania＇s population lost in the period 1992-2007 about 1250 thousands persons, which represents more than the population increase effort by restrictive policies （abortion prohibition） during the period 1977-1992. Also, this paper presents the most important factors that determine the demographic decline beginning in the last decade of the 20th century, both at national and regional levels. For Romania, another phenomenon is represented by the demographic dregs due to the emigration of the feminine population of fertile age. The increase of the share of female population in the emigration flows became more noticeable in the period 2002-2007. Supposing that from those women who migrate, less than 2/3 are going to give birth to children abroad, （1.3 represents the fertility rate at present）, we can estimate, for example, that during the period 2000-2007 Romania has lost more than 69,099 persons. The paper presents some theoretic considerations on the Markov-type model, and the results obtained by using it for studying the development of demographic indicators in Romania, and their forecasting as well.     

Option spanning with exogenous information structure

Supplementing a finite state-space static securities market with options written on an injective claim obtains market completeness. This study concludes that options maintain this spanning property in the infinite state-space static securities market models of interest in the extant literature. In addition, underlyers for which options bring about market completeness are shown to be dense.     

A meta-design approach to agroindustrial buildings: A case study for typical Italian wine productions

The study is part of a wider research aiming at defining building design criteria for small and medium-sized wine-growing and producing farms. The goal of this paper is to work out and validate a specific meta-design process, suitable to lead to the definition of possible layout solutions optimized in terms of functional requirements. The production process has been resolved into two macro-phases, in their turn composed of sections consisting of various series of operations and functions. The in-depth analyses performed on the spatial requirement of these operations and functions allowed to define the functional areas and spatial units suitable for building design. Finally, their functional and spatial relations were analysed through flow charts and matrix approach. The results allowed us to outline examples of possible layout solutions.     

Predictive density estimators for daily volatility based on the use of realized measures

The main objective of this paper is to propose a feasible, model free estimator of the predictive density of integrated volatility. In this sense, we extend recent papers by Andersen et al. [Andersen, T.G., Bollerslev, T., Diebold, F.X., Labys, P., 2003. Modelling and forecasting realized volatility. Econometrica 71, 579–626], and by Andersen et al. [Andersen, T.G., Bollerslev, T., Meddahi, N., 2004. Analytic evaluation of volatility forecasts. International Economic Review 45, 1079–1110; Andersen, T.G., Bollerslev, T., Meddahi, N., 2005. Correcting the errors: Volatility forecast evaluation using high frequency data and realized volatilities. Econometrica 73, 279–296], who address the issue of pointwise prediction of volatility via ARMA models, based on the use of realized volatility. Our approach is to use a realized volatility measure to construct a non-parametric (kernel) estimator of the predictive density of daily volatility. We show that, by choosing an appropriate realized measure, one can achieve consistent estimation, even in the presence of jumps and microstructure noise in prices. More precisely, we establish that four well known realized measures, i.e. realized volatility, bipower variation, and two measures robust to microstructure noise, satisfy the conditions required for the uniform consistency of our estimator. Furthermore, we outline an alternative simulation based approach to predictive density construction. Finally, we carry out a simulation experiment in order to assess the accuracy of our estimators, and provide an empirical illustration that underscores the importance of using microstructure robust measures when using high frequency data.     

The importance of technology-based intersectoral linkages for market share dynamics

The Importance of Technology-Based Intersectoral Linkages for Market Share Dynamics. — The paper introduces technology-based intersectoral linkages (or technological spillovers) in an empirical model of international market share dynamics. The Pavitt taxonomy is applied as a yardstick for interpreting the empirical results. Overall, the results appear to be broadly consistent with the criteria behind the taxonomy, on the relative importance of the different factors of competitiveness in the different sectors. In particular, unit labour costs appear to play the largest role in supplier-dominated industries, ‘own sector’ technological activity plays the largest role in science-based industries, upstream linkages in scale-intensive and downstream linkages in specialized-supplier types of industries.     

A consistent test for nonlinear out of sample predictive accuracy

In this paper, we draw on both the consistent specification testing and the predictive ability testing literatures and propose an integrated conditional moment type predictive accuracy test that is similar in spirit to that developed by Bierens (J. Econometr. 20 (1982) 105; Econometrica 58 (1990) 1443) and Bierens and Ploberger (Econometrica 65 (1997) 1129). The test is consistent against generic nonlinear alternatives, and is designed for comparing nested models. One important feature of our approach is that the same loss function is used for in-sample estimation and out-of-sample prediction. In this way, we rule out the possibility that the null model can outperform the nesting generic alternative model. It turns out that the limiting distribution of the ICM type test statistic that we propose is a functional of a Gaussian process with a covariance kernel that reflects both the time series structure of the data as well as the contribution of parameter estimation error. As a consequence, critical values that are data dependent and cannot be directly tabulated. One approach in this case is to obtain critical value upper bounds using the approach of Bierens and Ploberger (Econometrica 65 (1997) 1129). Here, we establish the validity of a conditional p-value method for constructing critical values. The method is similar in spirit to that proposed by Hansen (Econometrica 64 (1996) 413) and Inoue (Econometric Theory 17 (2001) 156), although we additionally account for parameter estimation error. In a series of Monte Carlo experiments, the finite sample properties of three variants of the predictive accuracy test are examined. Our findings suggest that all three variants of the test have good finite sample properties when quadratic loss is specified, even for samples as small as 600 observations. However, non-quadratic loss functions such as linex loss require larger sample sizes (of 1000 observations or more) in order to ensure reasonable finite sample performance.     

Is your open-innovation successful? The mediating role of a firm's organizational and social context

Open firms are not equally successful. This is because, in order to benefit from external sources of knowledge, firms must be able to absorb such knowledge. The paper outlines a firm's context as a set of organizational and social features, which may be considered absorptive capacity antecedents. It explores the mediating role of such antecedents in the relationship – hitherto insufficiently researched – between the degree of openness and innovative performance. The use of a methodology combining both direct interviews and survey of Italian firms has allowed us to confirm the supposed mediating role. We also identify different modes for companies to open up their innovation process and, for each of them, the antecedents that are consistent with choices regarding the degree of openness.     

The (lack of) international harmonization of EU standards: import and export effects in developed versus developing countries

This article studies the effect of the lack of international harmonization in agri-food standards on international trade flows focusing on the European Union (EU). The EU is characterized by high level of protectionism, which makes it an ideal case study. We measure the differences in countries’ level of ‘protectionism’ by applying an index of aggregation of non-tariff measures to data on maximum residue levels on pesticides and veterinary drugs allowed by countries on agri-food products. The restrictiveness of countries standards’ is compared with the one imposed by the Codex Alimentarius, which is considered as non-protectionist. The EU emerges as the most rigorous standards setter. The higher standards imposed by the EU affect in particular imports from developing countries, while it facilitates its exports, irrespective of the level of development and standard restrictiveness set by the importing countries.     

Macroeconomic conditions and well-being: do social interactions matter?

We investigate the role played by social interactions in the transmission of the effects of macroeconomic conditions on well-being. Using survey data for a representative sample of Italian individuals, we find that social interactions play a dual role. On the one hand, the well-being of people who spend more time with their friends or go out more often is less sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations. On the other hand, social interactions are negatively affected by worsening macroeconomic conditions, thus playing a relevant role in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks to subjective well-being. More specifically, the negative impact of downturns on the frequency of going out and active participation in associations significantly contributes to the adverse effects of recessions on satisfaction with life and with individual life domains.