COMPLEMENTARITY IN INPUT–OUTPUT ANALYSIS AND STOCHASTICS

The complementarity between the quantity and value systems of input–output analysis is shown to be the basis of the complementarity problem approach to computable general equilibrium. The numerical superiority of the latter to the linear programming approach facilitates stochastic analysis of input–output scenarios. For the example where Kyoto targets are underachieved to uncertain degrees, confidence intervals are derived for the associated consumption reductions.     

Advances in specification testing

Testing the specification of econometric models has come a long way from the t tests and F tests of the classical normal linear model. In this paper, we trace the broad outlines of the development of specification testing, along the way discussing the role of structural versus purely statistical models. Inferential procedures have had to advance in tandem with techniques of estimation, and so we discuss the generalized method of moments, non parametric inference, empirical likelihood and estimating functions. Mention is made of some recent literature, in particular, of weak instruments, non parametric identification and the bootstrap.     

On Microfoundations and Keynes’ Economics

Most mainstream economists regard the principles of ‘rational choice’ theory as the only foundation of economics and insist that macroeconomics be based on those principles. These include certainty or certainty-equivalence, which followers of Keynes reject. Macrofoundations of microeconomics are often proposed instead. We argue that the issue is more complex and explain why it is unlikely that a logically watertight fit between the two levels of analysis will ever be achieved. The complex interactions within and between the two levels suggest that it is unhelpful to assign foundational status to either level. We examine Keynes’ General Theory is examined as an example and compromises are found to fit the two together. It is argued that compromise is inevitable and that good theorising entails defending the compromises made.     

Volatility forecasting: combinations of realized volatility measures and forecasting models

This article examines financial time series volatility forecasting performance. Different from other studies which either focus on combining individual realized measures or combining forecasting models, we consider both. Specifically, we construct nine important individual realized measures and consider combinations including the mean, the median and the geometric means as well as an optimal combination. We also apply a simple AR(1) model, an SV model with contemporaneous dependence, an HAR model and three linear combinations of these models. Using the robust forecasting evaluation measures including RMSE and QLIKE, our empirical evidence from both equity market indices and exchange rates suggests that combinations of both volatility measures and forecasting models improve the forecast performance significantly.     

Implications of nurse-physician relations: report of a successful intervention

Given the evidence linking medical errors to ineffective communication, strategies for improving communication among health care professionals must be implemented. The purpose of this article was to examine the effect of a collaborative intervention on improving communication patterns between nurses and physicians on two study units. The intervention consisted of two nurses and two physicians (per unit) meeting together (8 hours total) to collaboratively develop a solution to communication issues on their respective units. Physicians scored significantly higher on reports of openness of communication within groups, openness between groups, accuracy between groups, and collaboration between groups. Collaboration reported among nurses and physicians improved for both professions, with significance reached for physicians (p = 0.031). Strategies must be identified to break down the barriers set by the current culture, and that expedite the development of a team-centered culture supporting collaborative relations among health care professionals.