Endogenous Games and Mechanisms: Side Payments Among Players

We characterize the outcomes of games when players may make binding offers of strategy contingent side payments before the game is played. This does not always lead to efficient outcomes, despite complete information and costless contracting. The characterizations are illustrated in a series of examples, including voluntary contribution public good games, Cournot and Bertrand oligopoly, principal–agent problems, and commons games, among others.     

LIQUIDITY,MONEY CREATION AND DESTRUCTION,AND THE RETURNS TO BANKING*

We build on our earlier model of money in which bank liabilities circulate as a medium of exchange. We investigate optimal bank behavior and the resulting provision of liquidity under a range of central bank regulations. In our model, banks issue inside money under fractional reserves, facing the possibility of excess redemptions. Banks consider the float resulting from money creation and make reserve‐management decisions that affect aggregate liquidity conditions. Numerical examples demonstrate positive bank failure rates when returns to banking are low. Central bank interventions may improve banks' returns and welfare through a reduction in bank failure.     

Are Preferential Trade Agreements with Non-trade Objectives a Stumbling Block for Multilateral Liberalization?

In many preferential trade agreements (PTAs), countries exchange not only reductions in trade barriers but also cooperation in non-trade issues such as labour and environmental standards, intellectual property, etc. We provide a model of PTAs motivated by cooperation in non-trade issues and analyse its implications for global free trade and welfare. We find that such PTAs increase the cost of multilateral tariff reductions and thus cause a stumbling block to global free trade. This occurs because multilateral tariff reductions decrease the threat that can be used in PTAs and thus the surplus that can be extracted from them. By explicitly modelling the interaction between preferential and multilateral negotiations, we derive a testable prediction and provide novel econometric evidence that supports the model's key prediction. The welfare analysis shows that the current World Trade Organization rules allowing this type of PTAs may be optimal for economically large countries, thus the model can predict the rules we observe. We also analyse alternative rules that constitute a Pareto improvement.     

The inflation and inflation uncertainty relationship for Turkey: a dynamic framework

This article assesses the interaction between inflation and inflation uncertainty in a dynamic framework for Turkey by using monthly data for the time period 1984–2009. The bulk of previous studies investigating the link between inflation and inflation uncertainty employ Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH)-type models, which consider inflation uncertainty as a predetermined function of innovations to inflation specification. The stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) models that we use allow for gathering innovations to inflation uncertainty and assess the effect of inflation volatility shocks on inflation over time. When we assess the interaction between inflation and its volatility, the empirical findings indicate that response of inflation to inflation volatility is positive and statistically significant. However, the response of inflation volatility to inflation is negative but not statistically significant.     

The distributional impact of large dams: Evidence from cropland productivity in Africa

We examine the distributional impact of large dams on cropland productivity in Africa. As our unit of analysis we use a hydrology based spatial breakdown of the continent that allows one to exactly define regions in terms of their upstream/downstream relationship at a highly disaggregated level. We then use satellite data to derive measures of cropland productivity within these areas. Our econometric analysis shows that while regions downstream benefit from large dams, no beneficial effects accrue to cropland within the vicinity. Moreover, we find that the productivity enhancing impact of upstream dams is dependent on the local climate. Overall our results suggest that upstream dams have quantitatively on average provided up to 12% of the minimum daily per capita amount of kilocalorie needs in downstream communities and increased agricultural production by 1%.     

Impact on Firm Liquidity Arising from Outsourcing Decisions as Evidenced by Off-Balance-Sheet Disclosures

International Advances in Economic Research - Based on transaction-cost and resource-based theories (and other approaches), there is an extensive literature on the range of factors that are viewed...     

Response to Seitz and Tödter, 'How the P* Model Rationalizes Monetary Targeting: A Comment on Svensson'

Seitz and TÎdter argue, counter to Svensson, that the P * model provides a rationale for money-growth targeting. In particular, they argue that 'money growth targeting is a special form of inflation forecast targeting based on a "limited" information set. In contrast to "full information" inflation forecast targeting, money growth targeting is likely to be more robust under changing conditions of the real world'.
However, money-growth targeting is better described as a special case of inflation targeting, namely when money growth is considered to be the only predictor of future inflation. But there is overwhelming empirical evidence that there are not only other, but also better, predictors of future inflation than money growth, which makes inflation-forecast targeting superior to money-growth targeting. Inflation-forecast targeting is indeed more robust (in the sense of using available information and allowing judgemental adjustments in a flexible way) than monetary targeting.
In particular, in the P * model, the real money gap is a better predictor of future inflation than money growth, as demonstrated theoretically by Svensson and empirically by Gerlach and Svensson (the empirical finding is also confirmed by Trecroci and Vega). Therefore, inflation-forecast targeting is superior also within the P * model. Under `changing conditions of the real world', for instance after the formation of a monetary union, money growth is likely to be particularly unreliable as a predictor of future inflation, making monetary targeting especially unsuitable and non-robust.