General training by firms, apprentice contracts, and public policy

Workers will not pay for general on-the-job training if contracts are not enforceable. Firms may if there are mobility frictions. Private information about worker productivities, however, prevents workers who quit receiving their marginal products elsewhere. Their new employers then receive external benefits from their training. In this paper, training firms increase profits by offering apprenticeships which commit firms to high wages for those trainees retained on completion. At these high wages, only good workers are retained. This signals their productivity and reduces the external benefits if they subsequently quit. Regulation of apprenticeship length (a historically important feature) enhances efficiency. Appropriate subsidies enhance it further.     

Nonhomothetic Preferences and International Trade

This study examines whether nonhomothetic preferences underlie the “missing trade” problem associated with factor content of trade models. We first find that per capita income goes a long way in explaining differences in goods consumption across countries. We then find a striking correlation between the factor content of consumption and per capita income, and show that accounting for this is a key part of resolving the case of the missing trade. However, nonhomothetic preferences over broad categories of expenditure play only a small role in this phenomenon. Rather, we find that as income grows, spending is directed towards the relatively capital‐intensive version of a given good. Since recent research shows that capital intensity is correlated with quality ( Schott, 2004 ), our results suggest that within‐product quality differences are likely important for explaining the factor content of trade, whereas nonhomothetic preferences over broad categories of expenditure are much less so.     

Exchange-rate variability and U.S.-French trade flows: evidence from industry data

Recent studies have greatly expanded the literature on the effects of exchange-rate volatility on industry-level bilateral trade flows. In this study, we examine the case of the United States and France, applying cointegration analysis to a set of 146 U.S. export and 115 U.S. import industries. We find that the majority of industries show little or no relationship between risk and trade volumes, but that small industries—particularly for exports—show more sensitivity than do large ones. A disproportionate share of industries respond positively to increased volatility, particularly among U.S. importers, suggesting the presence of “risk loving” behavior.     

Exchange‐rate volatility and US–Hong Kong industry trade: is there evidence of a ‘third country’ effect?

In an effort to better understand the determinants of trade flows worldwide, researchers have recently incorporated external volatility (in addition to that of the partners’ bilateral exchange rate) into their models. The so‐called ‘third country’ effect is present if adding this term changes the bilateral volatility estimates that are found when external volatility is omitted. This study examines US exports to Hong Kong for 143 industries, and imports from Hong Kong for 110 industries, and finds two key results. First, expected inflation due to Hong Kong's dollar peg leads to increased US exports in a large number of industries. Second, comparing our results with those of a previous study shows strong evidence of a ‘third country’ effect, especially for US imports. Nonparametric tests suggest that these effects differ by sector: for both exports and imports. Manufacturing industries that enjoy a large trade share are less likely to experience this effect once external volatility is incorporated into the analysis.     

Volatility and stock price indexes

The stochastic approach to index numbers has been successfully applied to the estimation of inflation, the world interest rate and international competitiveness.?One distinct advantage of this approach is that it provides the whole distribution of the index, not simply one value. In this article, we extend the stochastic approach to the estimation of a stock market index. We demonstrate how this approach can be used to identify ‘redundant stocks’ that do not contribute significantly to the overall index.?For index tracking purposes, these stocks can be safely excluded.     

Competitive balance versus competitive intensity before a match: is one of these two concepts more relevant in explaining attendance? The case of the French football Ligue 1 over the period 2008–2011

The aim of this article is to investigate the determinants of attendance at French football Ligue 1 matches over the period 2008–2011 with an emphasis on examining the effects of both competitive balance and intensity before a match. Competitive balance is measured by the point difference between the two teams concerned by a match in the championship. Competitive intensity is measured by the point difference for the home team in relation to ranks with sporting stakes. Results show that competitive balance has an insignificant impact whereas competitive intensity has a significantly positive impact. Implications are drawn.     

An analysis of irrigated agricultural outcomes under the prior appropriation doctrine: hypotheses and applications

This article measures irrigated agricultural outcomes under the prior appropriation doctrine by developing a model of farmers’ land allocations in response to water supply change. The modelling approach considers the institutional factors of water rights and permits the inclusive determination of water and land allocations. We utilize farm-level data of irrigated agriculture in Water District #1 in Idaho to examine the predictions from our theoretical model. The water rights priority date is consolidated at the farm level and used to differentiate farmers’ responses. We test a set of hypotheses that relate to water supply and crop revenue. Our results suggest that the water rights priority has a profound impact on agricultural outcomes, indicating strong institutional effects and weak influence of market-based approaches. Farmers respond to both long-term and seasonal water supply change and variation, and they respond to seasonal water supply forecasts in varied ways depending on their water rights portfolios, thus signalling a disproportionate distribution of potential impacts of water supply change.     

Pricing fx forwards in OTC markets – new evidence for the pricing mechanism when faced with counterparty risk

By using daily foreign exchange (fx) market data for five major currency pairs, this article shows that, especially since the beginning of the financial crisis, pricing of fx forwards has not matched the pricing formula derived from the covered interest rate parity (CIP). This corresponds to previous empirical results. Therefore, the CIP leads to systematic over- or underpricing. Overall, four statistically significant explanatory factors for this systematic over- or underpricing have been identified – the volatility in the difference between the interest rate levels, the spot price, the fx forward spread and the counterparty risk. In particular, the high significance of the counterparty risk demonstrates that pricing models for fx forwards should be reviewed.     

Bernanke versus Taylor: a post mortem

Our analysis sheds light on the issue of whether the monetary policy contributed to the recent housing boom and bust. We have estimated and analysed a model that allows a comparison between the actual policy and several alternative Taylor rules. When the Taylor rule path was computed using revised data and the deflator for the GDP, we found a notable impact on key housing market variables, supporting Taylor’s critique of the Fed policy. However, the bulk of our evidence suggests that the policy as it would have been conducted under our real-time Taylor rules would not have had any significant impact on the housing market variables. This conclusion is robust with regard to the price index used as well as the relative weights used on the inflation and output gaps.     

Public trust and corruption perception: disaster relief

Public trust in government and nongovernment organizations is essential to the public’s willingness to donate and to support those organizations. We measure public trust in disaster aid using people’s perception of these organizations’ effectiveness in delivering aid relief to the victims of two recent major earthquakes in China. Based on the survey data collected in 2013 from about 2100 residents in Hong Kong, we document the vulnerability of these residents’ trust perceptions in aid delivery. We find that the sharp decline in trust perception is highly negatively correlated with their perception of corruption of local governments in China.