Forecasting Japanese health futures with the BFT : A demand-side approach

In response to the problems associated with supply-side health-care planning, the Institute of Health Systems Development has created a demand-side approach which has been named BFT (Bioforecasting Technology). The system involves integration of data regarding the population, the natural and social environment, and the health/medical/social services with projections on factors that will influence the future population's demand for different kinds of health services. BFT forecasts have proved highly accurate. The system has been used throughout Japan and internationally, and much wider applications beyond standard hospital and health planning are possible.     

Visual communication technology : Priorities for the 1980s

The author considers a strategy for the study of visual communications in the 1980s. To establish a basis for this strategy, market research was carried out to ascertain major visual communications needs in leading business organizations. The systems found to have greatest potential were video conferencing, interactive information retrieval, facsimile, document processing, and office automation (integrating all four systems). In the light of these requirements, the author describes a study programme for the 1980s and shows which technologies should be developed.     

Dynamics of quote and deal prices in the foreign exchange market

We empirically investigate price fluctuations of yen-dollar exchange rate using the high-frequency data recorded in the electronic broking system for seven-year period. The distribution of quote price changes has symmetric fat-tails approximated by a power law; however, that of deal price is asymmetrical. The autocorrelation function and diffusion of price changes indicate that quote price exhibits anti-correlation feature in short time scale, whereas deal price is essentially uncorrelated. The bid-ask spread shows power-law distribution and long range temporal correlations similar to that observed in absoute price changes.      

Competition in the presence of individual demand uncertainty

This article offers a tractable model of (oligopolistic) competition in differentiated product markets characterized by individual demand uncertainty. The main result shows that, in equilibrium, firms offer advance purchase discounts and that these discounts are larger than in the monopolistic benchmark. Competition reduces welfare by increasing the fraction of consumers who purchase in advance, that is, without (full) knowledge of their preferences.     

The asset growth effect: Insights from international equity markets

Firms with higher asset growth rates subsequently experience lower stock returns in international equity markets, consistent with the U.S. evidence. This negative effect of asset growth on returns is stronger in more developed capital markets and markets where stocks are more efficiently priced, but is unrelated to country characteristics representing limits to arbitrage, investor protection, and accounting quality. The evidence suggests that the cross-sectional relation between asset growth and stock return is more likely due to an optimal investment effect than due to overinvestment, market timing, or other forms of mispricing.     

THE FORMATION OF CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: NEW EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN'S DEFLATION EXPERIENCE

Using a new data set, we investigate the relationship between the inflation experience and expectations of households in Japan, focusing on the post-1995 deflationary era. Our first finding is that inflation expectations increase with age. Second, we find that measured inflation rates also increase with age, although age and inflation expectations continue to exhibit a positive correlation even after controlling for the household-level inflation rate. Analysis suggests that the correlation between age and inflation expectations is driven largely by the correlation between cohort and inflation expectations, which we interpret to represent the effect of historical inflation experience on inflation expectations.     

Does a large loss of bank capital cause Evergreening? Evidence from Japan

Using the real estate lending share of the bank’s loan portfolio at the peak of the land-price bubble as an instrument for bank capital, we identify the impact of capital adequacy on the allocation of bank lending under the Basel regulatory framework. We find that, in Japan, a large loss of bank capital caused by the regulator’s excessively tough stance towards banks not only induced the contraction of the bank lending supply but also the banks’ reallocation of their lending portfolios to financially unhealthy industries with a higher concentration of non-performing loans.     

Random walk or a run. Market microstructure analysis of foreign exchange rate movements based on conditional probability

Using tick-by-tick data for the dollar–yen and euro–dollar exchange rates recorded on the actual transaction platform, a ‘run’—continuous increases or decreases in deal prices for the past several ticks—does have some predictable information on the direction of the next price movement. Deal price movements, that are consistent with order flows, tend to continue a run once it is started. Indeed, conditional probabilities of a run continuing in the same direction after several consecutive observations exceed 0.5. However, quote prices do not show such a run tendency. Hence, a random walk hypothesis is refuted in a simple test of a run using tick-by-tick data. In addition, a longer continuous increase of the price tends to be followed by a larger reversal. The findings suggest that those market participants who have access to real-time, tick-by-tick transaction data may have an advantage in predicting exchange rate movements. The findings reported here also lend support to the momentum trading strategy.