The predictive failure of the Baba, Hendry and Starr model of M1

restored a stable specification for M1 demand using an error-correction model which allowed for learning about new assets and incorporated a volatility term in long-term interest rates. Our study replicated their in-sample results, but found that their model completely breaks down over longer sample periods. We argue that this predictive failure could have been anticipated by sensitivity analysis. Their specification appears to have underestimated the interest rate elasticity of money demand because of the learning-adjustment mechanism. Our results also call into question their basic use of volatility in narrow money demand models.     

The role of trade unions in supporting victims of domestic violence in the workplace

This article explores the effects that domestic violence has on victims in their workplace and how trade unions respond. Focussing on the experiences of union representatives, the research highlights the support offered to victims, the barriers representatives face and the under‐acknowledged personal impact that these cases can have upon representatives.     

A Conjoint-based Product Designing Procedure Incorporating Price Competition

Conjoint analysis has become a major tool in the process of designing and concept testing consumer packaged goods and industrial products. In most applications, however, product concepts are tested against existing sets of competing brands without considering potential competitive reactions. Although many researchers have recognized the need for models to incorporate competitive reactions, few methodological developments have been published thus far. Instead of what-if analysis, which depends heavily on the managers' intuition about the competitors' reactions, S. Chan Choi and Wayne DeSarbo propose a game theoretic approach that models competing firms' reactions in price. This price reaction model is incorporated in the conjoint simulator for evaluating product concepts against competing brands. They illustrate the methodology using a commercial data set previously collected.     

Do Savings Associations Have a Special Commitment to Housing?

In this paper, we investigate whether elimination of the savings association charter might reduce lending to nontraditional mortgage borrowers. We present a theoretical model of lender portfolio choice, in which nontraditional lenders have some market power and traditional lenders are price takers in the mortgage market. The comparative statics indicate differences between nontraditional and traditional lenders in terms of their asset allocation responses to changes in borrower income and house prices. Empirical tests indicate the absence of such differences between savings associations and commercial banks, suggesting that elimination of the savings association charter would not impair lending to nontraditional mortgage borrowers.     

Conditioning Variables and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

Previous studies identify predetermined variables that predict stock and bond returns through time. This paper shows that loadings on the same variables provide significant cross-sectional explanatory power for stock portfolio returns. The loadings are significant given the three factors advocated by Fama and French (1993) and the four factors of Elton, Gruber, and Blake (1995). The explanatory power of the loadings on lagged variables is robust to various portfolio grouping procedures and other considerations. The results carry implications for risk analysis, performance measurement, cost-of-capital calculations, and other applications.     

Do input subsidy programs “crowd in” or “crowd out” commercial market development? Modeling fertilizer demand in a two‐channel marketing system

Many governments in developing countries distribute fertilizer at subsidized prices in an effort to stimulate small farmers' agricultural productivity and food security. Prior fertilizer demand studies have largely failed to account for the effects of government programs on farmers' commercial purchases. Using a double hurdle model and nationally representative rural household panel data in Zambia, we distinguish between these sources and measure the contemporaneous "crowding in" and "crowding out" effects of government input programs on commercial fertilizer sales. Where the private sector is relatively active and average wealth is higher (areas seemingly more likely to be targeted by government programs), results indicate that subsidies have substantially crowded out the private sector, in some cases to the point that such programs could actually lower overall fertilizer use. On the other hand, in poorer areas where the private sector is relatively inactive, subsidies help to generate demand and crowd in private sector retailers. Empirical studies explicitly modeling farmers' fertilizer purchase behavior within a dual marketing framework can provide important insights for agricultural policy discussions in developing countries.