EFFECTS OF SMALL BUSINESS ACCOUNTING BASES AND ACCOUNTANT SERVICE LEVELS ON LOAN OFFICER DECISIONS

This study examines effects of four combinations of accounting bases and service levels — GAAP and income tax bases, and audit and review service levels — on loan officers' decisions, both separately and in interaction. It examines effects on loan decisions and perceptions of interest rates, default risk, confidence, and usefulness. The interaction of accounting basis and service level significantly affects perceived confidence but does not affect other decisions. Accounting basis and service level separately affect interest rates, default risk, and report usefulness, but do not affect the loan decision.     

Fixed Exchange Rates and Disinflation in Emerging Markets: How Large Is the Effect?

We examine developing countries which have institutional quality ratings for the effects of exchange rate rigidity on inflation. The level of institutional development exerts no effect on the impact of currency regimes. However, the interaction of institutional quality and exchange rates has, in the most plausible specifications, a negative impact on inflation. This suggests that fixed exchange rates exert at most a contingent effect on inflation, and indicates that countries in Eastern Europe and Latin America contemplating currency pegs would be better off improving institutional quality prior to adopting the euro or dollar and expecting a large subsequent disinflationary effect. JEL no.  F31, O11     

Bayesian MCMC Mapping of Quantitative Trait Loci in a Half-sib Design: a Graphical Model Perspective

Graphical models provide a powerful and flexible approach to the analysis of complex problems in genetics. While task-specific software may be extremely efficient for any particular analysis, it is often difficult to adapt to new computational challenges. By viewing these genetic applications in a more general framework, many problems can be handled by essentially the same software. This is advantageous in an area where fast methodological development is essential. Once a method has been fully developed and tested, problem-specific software may then be required. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the potential use of a graphical model approach to genetic analyses by taking a very simple and well-understood problem by way of example.     

IntraLATA long-distance demand: carrier choice, usage demand and price elasticities

Competition in the long-distance market in the US continues to intensify; the 1996 Telecommunications Act has led to increased competition in long-distance telephony especially as the Regional Bell Operating Companies have begun to gain entry to long-haul, long-distance markets. In order to better understand the implications of having increased service offerings, models of how customers choose between carriers (and the impact of this choice on subsequent usage) will be useful. We develop the first publicly available models that simultaneously estimate choice and usage for intraLATA long-distance in the US. Utilizing a generalized Tobit model, the price responsiveness of usage and carrier choice are estimated. The results are generally consistent with expectations both in terms of theory and of practical experience in the industry.     

Interest rate corridors and reserves

This paper evaluates reserves regimes versus interest rate corridors, which have become competing frameworks for monetary policy implementation. Rate corridors, relying on lending and deposit facilities to create ceilings and floors for overnight interest rates, evince mixed results on controlling volatility. Reserve requirements allow period-average smoothing of interest rates but, even if remunerated, are subject to reserve avoidance activities. A system of voluntary, period-average reserve commitments could offer equivalent rate-smoothing advantages. If central banks created symmetric opportunity costs of meeting or falling short of period-average reserve requirements (or commitments), they could achieve flat reserve demand on settlement day.     

Wealth and Risk Effects of Adopting Deposit Insurance in Canada: Evidence of Risk Shifting by Banks and Trust Companies

This paper confirms that adopting explicit deposit insurance expanded risk-shifting incentives for Canadian Banks and Trust Companies. By transferring responsibility for monitoring non-systematic risk to the Canadian Deposit Insurance Corporation (CDIC), deposit insurance eliminated the compensation previously paid to large-block stockholder monitors. This transfer fueled a redistribution of insured-institution stock from poorly diversified large-block shareholders to diversified investors. Also, subsequent changes in market volatility support the hypothesis that CDIC insurance and the absorption of catastrophic risk it provided reduced systematic risk in the stock market as a whole even as it increased non-systematic risk in the banking and trust-company sector.     

Some Cracks in the Empire of Chance (Flaws in the Foundations of Reliability)

Making quantified statements about the uncertainty associated with the lifelength of an item is one of the most fundamental tasks of reliability assessment. Most practitioners routinely do this using one of the several available statistical techniques. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. The first is to give the user an overview of the key tenets of two of the most commonly used parametric approaches. The second is to point out that these commonly used approaches involve strategies that are either ad hoc, or are in violation of some of the underlying tenets. A method that is devoid of logical flaws can be proposed, but this method is difficult to implement. The user must therefore resign to using that technique against which the fewest objections can be hurled.     

Scaling up support for children in HIV-affected families by involving early childhood development workers: community views from KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

The United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimates that South Africa has 1.2 million orphans as a result of AIDS. This study investigated the views of communities in KwaZulu-Natal on the potential use of early childhood development (ECD) practitioners for helping children in vulnerable households. It reports on in-depth interviews and focus group discussions with community members and service providers in six different areas of KwaZulu-Natal. Despite the increase in the numbers of deaths, people in affected areas have yet to accept that HIV is the cause. Stigma, denial, myths and witchcraft beliefs were evident, particularly in the rural areas. There was general agreement by the respondents that ECD practitioners with additional training specific to HIV/AIDS could assist families if cost difficulties were overcome. As community members with basic training in childcare they could enhance community responses by linking with community health workers and other service providers to assist children and households in need.     

A theory of innovation for process-based innovations such as nanotechnology

Many see Nanotechnology as the technology that will underlie the next Schumpeterian wave creating new opportunities for wealth and job creation. Further it is a process based or materials technology. Yet all currently used models of innovation are based on assembled products or service products and these simply do not recognize the differences in materials products nor the “enabling” nature of Nanotechnologies. If nanotechnology is poised to become the economic engine of this millennium and if current models of innovation, which are utilized, by policy makers and firm based strategist alike are based on technology product paradigms that are dissimilar to the realities of nanotechnology and other process-based technologies then there is cause for concern.Here the authors provide a model and supporting cases demonstrating a new process or materials based innovation model that is based on the tight coupling between product and process innovation of not only Nanotechnology-based products but other process-based products. This is an important finding, because it identifies and remedies a gap in the literature associated with earlier process and product innovation models. For process-based products like materials, food, chemicals and nanotechnologies any change to the manufacturing processes results in significant changes in end product features. The implications of this model to practice are considered.