Formal targets, central bank independence and inflation dynamics in the UK: A Markov-Switching approach

We examine inflation and uncertainty in the UK with a version of the Markov Switching model, which allows for changes in the variance as well as in the mean and persistence of a series. We find that the UK’s attempts at exchange rate pegs in the form of shadowing the deutschmark and entering the ERM were ineffective, and in the latter case counterproductive in lowering inflation uncertainty. The 1981 budget, however, greatly lowered uncertainty, and the adoption of a formal inflation target also had a palpable, negative impact on inflation uncertainty. As a suggestive exercise, we examine inflation uncertainty in the US, and find that, over 2005–2008, in the absence of an inflation target, uncertainty rose in the US, while uncertainty remained low in the UK over this period of rising commodity prices and financial turmoil.     

Business cycle amplification with heterogeneous expectations

This paper studies the implications for business cycle dynamics of heterogeneous expectations in a stochastic growth model. The assumption of homogeneous, rational expectations is replaced with a heterogeneous expectations model where a fraction of agents hold rational expectations and the remaining fraction adopt parsimonious forecasting models that are, in equilibrium, optimal within a restricted class. Our approach nests the literature on rational expectations in business cycle models with a recent approach based on adaptive learning. We demonstrate that (i.) heterogeneous expectations can lead to substantial improvement in the internal propagation of equilibrium business cycle models and (ii.) the internal propagation depends on the degree of heterogeneity. A calibrated model with heterogeneity provides a closer fit to business cycle data than its representative agent, rational expectations counterpart.     

A NOTE ON SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF FINITE MIXTURES OF DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS WITH APPLICATION TO GAME THEORETIC MODELS*

We view a game abstractly as a semiparametric mixture distribution and study the semiparametric efficiency bound of this model. Our results suggest that a key issue for inference is the number of equilibria compared to the number of outcomes. If the number of equilibria is sufficiently large compared to the number of outcomes, root‐n consistent estimation of the model will not be possible. We also provide a simple estimator in the case when the efficiency bound is strictly above zero.     

A model of adolescents' online consumer self-efficacy (OCSE)

This paper investigates adolescent online shopping and self-efficacy development in the virtual setting. The authors present and test a model of antecedents and mediators to two dimensions of online consumer self-efficacy. Additionally, a discriminant analysis finds that more involved adolescent online shoppers can be differentiated from less involved online shoppers on key variables of interest-shopping motivations, self-efficacies, shopping behaviors, and relative influence in household decision-making.     

Monopoly and the problem of the economists

By any measure economists have played increasingly prominent roles in antitrust policy making, at least since the early 1970s. Indeed, the approach to the analysis of public policy toward business pioneered by Chicago school economists dominates the academic literature nowadays. According to the Chicago school's adherents, their insistence that antitrust be examined through the lens of price theory should have produced discernably ‘better’ (read pro-consumer) laws and ‘better’ law enforcement. This paper contends that economists have in fact not had a positive influence on antitrust policy, but have instead actively contributed to its use as a way of subverting competitive market forces.     

TFP change and its components for Swedish manufacturing firms during the 2008–2009 financial crisis

Journal of Productivity Analysis - A driving force of economic development is growth in total factor productivity (TFP). Manufactured goods are, to a large extent, exports, and represent an...     

Applications of amine gelling agents in fire technology

A novel gelatin system for use in oil spills at sea provides rapid immobilization of liquids upon demand.