The in-depth testing of survey questions: A critical appraisal of methods

It has become increasingly apparent that the conventional piloting, or pre-testing, of survey questions does not ensure that questions are understood by respondents as researchers intend them to be understood. This has led survey methodologists to advocate the use of indepth testing procedures. While some of the procedures used to identify comprehension problems appear to be reasonably effective, almost all of the procedures used to identify other kinds of problems have not proved to be very useful. Two reasons stand out as explanations for this general lack of success. First, the probes used are themselves not likely to be interpreted in the same way by different respondents. Second, the cognitive psychological assumptions that have suggested many of the procedures may not adequately reflect the processes that underlie the way questions are answered. A number of suggestions are made with the view to making the in-depth testing of survey questions a more profitable exercise.     

重大突发事件风险管理研究

当前，国际社会重大突发事件的风险性质正在发生剧烈的变化，只有了解和把握这些变化及其制约因素，才能够对此有一个准确、科学的认识。本文对国际社会重大突发事件风险性质的变化进行了概要性介绍，并从社会流动性和系统复杂性的提高，人类居所、活动或资产规模的增大和集中化，突发事件风险因素的变化，公共和私人机构处理风险职责的漂移，以及社会变化和对风险的理解等5个方面对重大突发事件的风险管理进行了探讨。     

Institutional design and the closure of public facilities in transition economies

As part of the reforms of their systems for financing and delivering health care, many transition economies, particularly in central and eastern Europe, have adopted national insurance funds that are institutionally separate from ministries of health. Most of these countries have also grappled with the problem of restructuring the delivery system, especially the need to reduce hospital capacity. Although improving the performance of medical care providers through a shift from passive budgeting to explicitly incentive mechanisms is important, why this change in financial relations between the government and providers could not be implemented simply by reforming the role of health ministries is not obvious. This paper presents an explicit rationale for the separation of powers between the regulator (the ministry of health) and the financing body (the insurance fund), based on the inability of a single agency to commit to closing hospitals. JEL classification: L51, P20, P35, I18.     

IT基础设施定价问题透视

一、Internet定价的基本原则 网络服务定价的基本原则是既要充分考虑到网络服务成本,又要能通过服务定价提高网络资源利用率。而且,服务定价系统必须尽可能地具有通用性和开放性,以支持各种不同类型的Internet应用。 1、反映成本构成。Internet网络服务的成本构成如下:(1)提供网络基础设施的成本。包括网络的线路租金(包括国际联网费用,国内主干网费用和电话中继线费用)、节点(包括构成ISP所     

The Effects of Occupational Injuries After Returns to Work: Work Absences and Losses of On-the-Job Productivity

We extend the research on postinjury employment by estimating productivity losses for workers with permanent partial disabilities (PPDs) in the first three years after injury. Our method distinguishes between productivity losses attributed to spells of work absence versus reduced earnings during spells of employment. The method is applied to data for 800 Ontario workers with PPDs. The results document large productivity losses persisting at least three years after injury, with different loss patterns for workers returning to stable versus unstable employment. Human capital investments or job accommodations can reduce productivity losses, but the significant determinants of losses differ for the stable versus unstable employment groups.     

寄语《市场研究》

当全球迈入新世纪以来,政经变化、信息发达,往往也使得市场环境更加快速变迁,加上不确定性因素的提高,企业经营者纷纷面临市场饱和、产品加速淘汰、消费者嗜好善变及竞争者涌现等问题.面对多变的市场,单凭直觉反应和主观判断已无法应对营销决策上的需要,如何能化被动的适应防御为主动评估市场趋势已是现今社会的重要课题.     

人在江湖飘

在《功夫》一片中，周星星暗害包租婆不成，反中蛇毒加刀伤，于是跑到交通灯里，一套如来神掌下来，没事人一般。人在江湖飘，哪有不挨刀。身在广告这一行浸淫得久了，从哼哼哈哈的花拳绣腿到金钟罩、铁布衫，自我修炼的本领长了不少，任泰山崩于眼前面不改色。     

Evaluating FOMC forecasts

Monetary policy outcomes have improved since the early 1980s. One factor contributing to the improvement is that Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. These forecasts indicate what the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. We evaluate the accuracy of the FOMC forecasts relative to private sector forecasts, the forecasts of the Research Staff at the Board of Governors, and a naïve alternative. We find that the FOMC output forecasts were better than the naïve model and at least as good as those of the private sector and the Fed staff. The FOMC inflation forecasts were more accurate than the private sector forecasts and the naïve model; for the period ending in 1996, however, they were not as accurate as Fed staff inflation forecasts.     

The Only Solution to the Decline in Business Ethics: Ethical Managers

This paper defines business ethics as a seriesof behaviors that adhere to values held by theindividual manager, the manager's supervisorsand subordinates, general society and, mostimportantly, the manager's customers andclients. The concept of business ethics isexplored through several levels of businessorganizations and operating environments.The paper then examines recent evidence of thedecline in business ethics by noting a fewexamples involving Beech-Nut, Hertz, MichaelMilken, E.F. Hutton, Sears, Salomon Brothers,Dalkon Shield, Exxon Valdez, S&L scandal,brokerage analysts. Surveys are cited toindicate that the American public believes thatbusiness ethics are declining.To further analyze the topic, the authorreports on a series of structured interviewswith managers in a variety of organizations.Fourteen senior managers were interviewed: 4from large county government, 3 from stategovernment, 4 from large corporations, 3 fromsmall businesses. The managers were asked theiropinions concerning the decline of businessethics, and for their recommendations topossibly retard the decline. All managers saidthey believed that ethics are in decline andthat the public believes ethics are declining.The recommendations for retarding or reversingthe decline yielded several suggestions: teachethics in schools and business organizations,develop and enforce Codes of Ethical Conductwithin all organizations, establish bettermonitoring and reporting mechanisms, and hireethical managers.The paper builds on theinterview results by coupling the managers'remarks with admonitions from many authors:while teaching ethics and Codes of EthicalConduct are important, the most importantfactor is the ethical behavior of managers(leaders). Ethical leadership is fundamentalsince ethical behavior is an individual – not acorporate – matter. In practice, ethics is notsomething that a manager ``does'; it issomething that the manager ``is.'