Using Tucker’s theorem of the alternative to simplify,review and expand discrete arbitrage theory

For valuing derivatives and other assets in securities and commodities markets, arbitrage pricing theory has been a major approach for decades. This paper derives fundamental arbitrage pricing results in finite dimensions in a simple unified framework using Tucker’s theorem of the alternative. Frictionless results, that is perfect market results, plus imperfect market results such as those with dividends, periodic interest payments, transaction costs, different interest rates for lending and borrowing, shorting costs and constrained short selling are presented. While the results are mostly known and appear in various places, our contribution is to present them in a coherent and comprehensive fashion with very simple proofs. The analysis yields a simple procedure to prove new results and some are presented for cases with imperfect market frictions.     

Covariance complexity and rates of return on assets

This paper considers the estimation of the expected rate of return on a set of risky assets. The approach to estimation focuses on the covariance matrix for the returns. The structure in the covariance matrix determines shared information which is useful in estimating the mean return for each asset. An empirical Bayes estimator is developed using the covariance structure of the returns distribution. The estimator is an improvement on the maximum likelihood and Bayes–Stein estimators in terms of mean squared error. The effect of reduced estimation error on accumulated wealth is analyzed for the portfolio choice model with constant relative risk aversion utility.     

The Correct use of Confidence Intervals and Regression Analysis in Determining the Value of Residential Homes

This paper shows that (1) the principle of substitution has been misinterpreted in regression analysis on residential homes by the misuse of the confidence interval; (2) the proper confidence interval to judge the accuracy of the equation is the mean CI; and (3) the accuracy of the equation can be improved by applying factor analysis to the entire data set rather than a predetermined neighborhood. These results are illustrated in a sample of 571 residential sales in Northwest Arkansas during 1975. The data are divided into clusters, and a regression equation is computed for each. The results show that the mean confidence interval is the correct application of the principle of substitution. The correct decision rule to determine the superiority of the multi-equation or the single equation model compares the explained to the unexplained variation. These results should allow the appraiser to select properties that are better suited for comparison. This will improve the accuracy of the regression analysis and resulting estimates of property value.     

HOW STOCK-SWAP MERGERS AFFECT SHAREHOLDER (AND BONDHOLDER) WEALTH: MORE EVIDENCE OF THE VALUE OF CORPORATE "FOCUS"

Alfred Chandler once described the U.S. conglomerate movement of the 1960s and '70s as an "historical aberration and a 'disaster." And the recent trend in corporate mergers and acquisitions away from "diversifying" acquisitions would seem to confirm Chandler's argument.
In what constitutes yet another piece of evidence in support of Chandler's argument, the authors of this article conducted a study of changes in debt and equity values in 260 stock-forstock mergers completed between 1963 and 1996. With a sample almost evenly divided between conglomerate and "related" mergers, the authors report significant net wealth gains for all securityholders as a group in "related" mergers, but generally insignificant net gains for securityholders in conglomerate mergers. Not surprisingly, target firm shareholders experienced net wealth gains in both kinds of acquisitions; but for acquiring company shareholders, there was a striking difference: economically and statistically significant gains for acquirers in related transactions, and significant losses for acquirers in conglomerate deals.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the study, however, was that even the bondholders of acquirers in related mergers benefited more than bondholders in conglomerate deals. The result is surprising because, to the extent bondholders benefit from corporate diversification, one would expect the opposite result. That bondholders in related mergers experience larger wealth increases than those of conglomerate acquirers is just one more sign of the dramatic differences in total value created by the two kinds of mergers.     

Computer Use and Productivity Growth in US Federal Government Agencies, 1987–92

We examine the impact of information technology (IT) on productivity in the public sector econometrically, using data from the BLS Federal Productivity Measurement Program and from Computer Intelligence Infocorp, and by interviewing some government officials. We estimate a production function for government services that includes IT capital as an input, and find a strong positive relationship across federal agencies between productivity growth and computer-intensity growth during the period 1987–92, controlling for growth in compensation and other outlays per employee, and in the number of employees. Our estimates are consistent with the hypothesis that there are 'excess returns' to IT capital.     

Managerial Ownership, the Method of Payment for Acquisitions, and Executive Job Retention

This study investigates how acquiring and target firm managers' preferences for control rights motivate the payment for corporate acquisitions. We expect that managers of target firms who value influence in combined firms will prefer to receive stock. One reason top managers desire influence is to enhance their chances of retaining jobs in the combined firm. Our analysis shows a strong, positive association between managerial ownership of target firms and the likelihood of acquisitions for stock. We also find that managers of target firms are more likely to retain jobs in combined firms when they receive stock rather than cash.     

Situational and trait interactions among goal orientations

Regulatory focus theory has been used to describe and explain a wide range of consumer responses. This goal orientation has been examined both as a chronic difference and a situational variable. Yet, it is unclear how a situational manipulation interacts with the individual??s chronic goal orientation. The present research investigates the potential for interactions and suggests that typical outcomes of regulatory focus are likely to emerge more clearly under circumstances in which promotion focus is manipulated. The studies demonstrate asymmetric effects in the interactions of chronic and situational manipulations of regulatory focus using different manipulations and outcome variables. The implications of these findings are significant for any research involving the manipulation of variables that can also be considered as chronic tendencies.     

The out-of-region bias: Distance estimations based on geographic category membership

This research addresses estimations of distance, an important factor in numerous consumer decisions (e.g., store choice, willingness to pay for travel). Our central hypothesis is that when two places are located in the same geographic category, individuals estimate them to be closer to each other than when they are located in different categories, a bias we term ??the out-of-region bias.?? In study 1, we demonstrate that participants are more willing to visit a store located in the city in which they live rather than a store located in a neighboring city because they mistakenly think that a store in their city is closer to home. In studies 2a and b, we show that the out-of-region bias leads consumers to express higher willingness to pay for an airline ticket that involves travel across versus within regions because they inaccurately estimate greater distance between cities that are located in different regions (vs. the same region). Study 2a also demonstrates that the out-of-region bias is ameliorated in the presence of a map, indicating that the bias is a conceptual (vs. perceptual) bias, and study 2b rules out an alternative explanation for our results based on consumers?? tendency to exaggerate north?Csouth distances.