Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models

We develop a new method for deriving minimal state variable (MSV) equilibria of a general class of Markov switching rational expectations models and a new algorithm for computing these equilibria. We compare our approach to previously known algorithms, and we demonstrate that ours is both efficient and more reliable than previous methods in the sense that it is able to find MSV equilibria that previously known algorithms cannot. Further, our algorithm can find all possible MSV equilibria in models. This feature is essential if one is interested in using a likelihood based approach to estimation.     

深圳市人口现状、问题和对策研究

深圳的外来人口超过1200万,总人口达到1400万。深圳人口问题是中国农村城市化的历史过程在深圳的特殊表现。深圳人口问题的源头是产业结构问题。深圳城中村为外来人口增长提供了庞大的容纳场所。     

对江苏外贸增创新发展优势的探讨——苏沪浙鲁粤对外贸易特征的比较分析

本文通过对苏沪浙鲁粤五省市“十五”期间及其前后外贸运行情况及各自特征的比较分析,旨在了解江苏对外贸易的优劣势,汲取先进省份有益的经验,取人之长,补己之短,在激烈的区域经济竞争中促进外贸又好又快发展。     

企业生存空间研究

企业的生存空间是市场份额,市场份额决定企业成败。提高市场占有率是企业拓展空间的路径。提高市场占有率有两种战略:一种是“以农村包围城市”,先易后难;另一种是“先取城市,再走向农村”,先难后易。     

论企业内部的制衡机制

一个企业，光有完善的外在管理架构并不能解决有效管理问题。要防范经营风险，必须有良好的企业内部制衡机制。     

CEO体制是公司治理体制的重大变革

自中国加入WTO以来,为了与国外公司治理模式接轨,中国的民营企业、高科技企业和一些国有企业纷纷引入西方的首席执行官制度(英文简称CEO).2001年以来,中国的很多著名民营与高科技企业如海尔、四川长虹、江苏春兰、平安保险、泰康人寿保险、网易、搜狐、新浪等企业都实行了CEO制度.根据网上查询结果,到目前为止,宣称自己为CEO的中国企业老总已经超过2500多个.中国<2002～2005年全国人才队伍建设规划纲要>中明确要"建设一支职业经理人队伍.逐步实行职业资格制度,加紧研究制定资质认证标准和市场准人规则.参照国际惯例,探索建立符合中国企业实际的首席执行官制度."     

实现经济、社会全面、协调、可持续发展

<正>坚持以人为本,树立全面协调可持续的发展观,是党的十七大以胡锦涛同志为总书记的党中央从新世纪新阶段党和国家事业发展全局出发提出的重大战略思想,是我们党对社会主义现代化建设指导思想的新发展。深刻而全面地理解科学发展观的核心,实现经济、社会全面、协调、可持续发展,对于我们自觉树立和落实科学发展观、全面建设小康社会和构建社会主义和谐社会具有重要意义。     

战略性出口贸易政策效应分析—以出口关税为例

改革开放以来,因外贸体制改革、行业协会建设滞后等原因,中国外贸出口"大国贫困化增长"特征日显。因此,本文以出口关税为例,具体阐释战略性出口贸易政策的效应、实施条件,为中国采取战略性出口贸易政策消除"大国贫困化增长"、优化出口商品结构、改善贸易条件和贸易效应提供理论基础。     

Downgrade of U.S.Credit Rating Rattled Global Market

The Standard & Poor's rating agency announced on August 5 that it has downgraded the U.S.credit rating to AA+ from its top rank of AAA for first time.In response to S&P's move,Asian and Oceania markets saw intense volatility on August 8 as major stock markets in Australia, New Zealand,Japan,South Korea,Singapore, Mainland China,Taiwan and Hong Kong en-     

Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models

Inference for multiple-equation Markov-chain models raises a number of difficulties that are unlikely to appear in smaller models. Our framework allows for many regimes in the transition matrix, without letting the number of free parameters grow as the square as the number of regimes, but also without losing a convenient form for the posterior distribution. Calculation of marginal data densities is difficult in these high-dimensional models. This paper gives methods to overcome these difficulties, and explains why existing methods are unreliable. It makes suggestions for maximizing posterior density and initiating MCMC simulations that provide robustness against the complex likelihood shape.