Maximum likelihood estimation of linear expenditure systems with serially correlated errors: An application

The present paper uses Canadian data for the period 1947–1972 and three commodity groups to examine the empirical importance of restrictions imposed by autocorrelated disturbances on the static linear expenditure system, LES. For comparison a simple habit persistence model is also estimated. Results of applications of likelihood ratio tests indicate that autocorrelation is present in the data, that a simple habit persistence hypothesis on the structure is implied and that the restrictions imposed by the form of the utility function and maximization problem are inconsistent with the data whether or not adjusted for the autocorrelation in errors. Despite these differences, the estimated price and income elasticities remain fairly constant across the various specifications of the LES that were considered.     

S&P 500 futures market and the normal backwardation hypothesis

This paper examines the behavior of near term S&P 500 index futures contract prices in the context of the theory of normal backwardation. Daily S&P 500 futures prices for 41 contracts over the 1982–1992 period are examined. There is no evidence that S&P 500 futures prices are biased estimates of the expected future spot price on expiration. Daily futures prices usually lie below the expected future spot price on expiration and usually rise over the contract period, but these price movements are not statistically significant. The surprising result of this study is the number of observations where backwardation appears not to hold. Furthermore, changes in the U.S. dollar exchange rates, the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and the switching of S&P 500 contracts quarterly expiration day had no significant effect on the behavior of S&P 500 futures prices.     

MFN Status and the Choice of Tariff Regime

The gradualist approach to trade liberalization views the uniform tariffs implied by MFN status as an important step on the path to free trade. We investigate whether a regime of uniform tariffs will be preferable to discriminatory tariffs when countries engage in non-cooperative interaction in multilateral trade. The analysis includes product differentiation and asymmetric costs. We show that with the cost asymmetry the countries will disagree on the choice of tariff regime. When the choice of import tariffs and export subsidies is made sequentially the uniform tariff regime may not be sustainable, because of an incentive to deviate to a discriminatory regime. Hence, an international body is needed to ensure compliance with tariff agreement.     

Zero truncated Poisson integer-valued AR(1) model

In this paper, we introduce a new stationary integer-valued autoregressive process of the first order with zero truncated Poisson marginal distribution. We consider some properties of this process, such as autocorrelations, spectral density and multi-step ahead conditional expectation, variance and probability generating function. Stationary solution and its uniqueness are obtained with a discussion to strict stationarity and ergodicity of such process. We estimate the unknown parameters by using conditional least squares estimation, nonparametric estimation and maximum likelihood estimation. The asymptotic properties and asymptotic distributions of the conditional least squares estimators have been investigated. Some numerical results of the estimators are presented and some sample paths of the process are illustrated. Some possible applications of the introduced model are discussed.     

Social capital and poverty in Uganda

This paper investigates the links between social capital and household poverty in Uganda. It assumes a two-way causal relationship between poverty and access to social capital. This suggests an endogeneity problem, so the paper uses econometric techniques that control for endogeneity. Using two nationally representative datasets, the authors' analyses revealed that access to social capital defined in terms of membership of social organisations positively affects household income and reduces poverty. Education was the key determinant of income and increases the probability of joining social networks. Their results further show that household income and welfare are positively associated with access to social capital or group participation. This suggests that government strategies to increase household income that take into consideration existing social institutions will go a long way to encourage associational growth and performance and consequently reduce poverty.     

An investigation into the mixed reported adoption rates for ABC: Evidence from Australia, New Zealand and the UK

An accumulated body of the literature confirms that the adoption of activity-based costing (ABC) can lead to a substantial improvement in organisational performance, productivity and profitability, and therefore encourages further adoption of the technique. However, studies investigating the diffusion of ABC have reported inconsistent and mixed results. This could cause uncertainty for many potential adopters of ABC (especially for those who follow the fashion and fads approaches) and influence their tendencies towards the adoption of ABC in the future. Addressing the diffusion process as a contextual factor, this study simultaneously investigates the adoption of ABC from the perspectives of different diffusion processes. Using two commonly adopted diffusion processes (the stages of adoption and the levels of adoption), this study examines the relationship between the reported adoption rates for ABC and the diffusion process approaches chosen to measure its adoption rates in three western countries: Australia, New Zealand and the UK. A similar questionnaire was used and more than 2000 qualified CIMA members (via a survey study and follow-up interviews) were targeted. The findings suggest a significant association between the reported adoption rates for ABC and the diffusion process approaches chosen to measure the adoption rates. The findings further suggest that the lack of a common understanding of ABC systems may have also contributed to the mixed reported adoption rates for ABC, as many ABC adopters have considered themselves adopters of traditional accounting systems by mistake (especially when they are dealing with ‘facility costs’ as one of the main cost hierarchies under ABC systems).     

Regulation fair disclosure and the market’s reaction to analyst investment recommendation changes

Previous research has shown that affiliated analysts (those who are working for investment banks that underwrite securities for companies) have an incentive to provide optimistically biased recommendations from selective information they are given by the firm. In an effort to halt such activities, as of October 2000, Regulation Fair Disclosure (RegFD) prohibits selective disclosure of material non-public information by public companies to privileged individuals (such as favored research analysts) and requires broad, non-exclusionary disclosure of such information. We examine firms’ stock price reactions to investment recommendation changes from affiliated analysts versus unaffiliated analysts from October 1998 to November 2002, around the passage of RegFD. Similar to previous research, we find that investors reacted more significantly to recommendation downgrades by affiliated analysts than to those by unaffiliated analysts prior to the passage of RegFD. However, we find that the difference in the reactions to recommendation changes is not present after the passage of RegFD. We also find that stock price reactions to analysts’ (both affiliated and unaffiliated) recommendation changes decreased significantly after the passage of RegFD. Thus, RegFD appears to have curbed the selective disclosure of information (particularly negative information) by firms to affiliated analysts. Further, the smaller reactions to recommendation changes by all analysts after RegFD may reflect a change in analysts’ behavior (irrespective of information that is available) or a response by corporate managers to withhold information rather than risking a violation of fair disclosure rules.     

Consumer Demand Analysis at Agriculture Canada — Past and Future

This paper traces the development of consumer demand analysis at Agriculture Canada for the period 1972 to 1982 and identifies areas for future work. The objectives of this exercise are threefold: (I) to assess existing empirical results, emphasizing problems in specifying, estimating and evaluating alternative models; (2) to make the benefit of the Canadian experience available to applied researchers in Canada and other countries who are investigating the structure of consumer demand; and (3) to provide perspective for future analyses of consumer demand.
Cet article retrace le développement de l'analyse de la demande des consommateurs de 1972 à 1982 à Agriculture Canada el ètahlit les champs d'intérét du travail à venir. Le but de cette mise en perspective se divise en trois: (1) évaleur les résullats empiriques déjà obtenus en mettant l'accent sur la spécificiation, l'estimation et l'évaluation de modeles de remplacement, (2) rendre les avantages de expérience canadienne disponible aux specialistes de la recherche appliquée du Canada et de l'étranger qui étudient la structure de la demande de consommation et, (3) fournir des perspectives pour d'éventuelles analyses de la demande des consommateurs.