The pre‐eminence of gold and silver as Shariah money

Shariah money is gold and silver, supplied by the market on profit criterion. Everywhere, government inconvertible paper money arose from bankruptcy. A government with balanced budgets would never need it. Imposed by force, inconvertible paper is a taxation mean, highly inflationary, and causes impoverishment. Unjust and bankrupt governments will continue to force this despotic money. Islamic Monetary Economics refutes the idea of money as a policy tool. Fully convertible paper is Shariah compliant. Shariah requires a just government to balance its budgets and restore fully gold and silver as lawful money.     

Firm Characteristics and Stock Price

This study examines the stock price reaction to the internal control reporting required under Section 404 of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act of 2002 for three distinct groups of firms. After controlling for general stock price movements, we find that stock returns are most negative for firms that delay filing of their internal control reports, continue to be negative for firms with ineffective internal controls, and are positive for firms with effective internal controls. The decrease in stock prices of the first two groups is more pronounced for those with a lower return on assets, higher growth rate in sales, and no prior disclosure of their internal controls weaknesses. Our results indicate that market participants value the reliability of financial information ensuing from Section 404 compliance, irrespective of firm size and debt proportion. Thus, regulators and policymakers worldwide should consider mandating comparable SOX 404 compliance for all publicly held companies to improve the accuracy and reliability of financial reports.     

The seeds of a crisis: A theory of bank liquidity and risk taking over the business cycle

We examine how the banking sector could ignite the formation of asset price bubbles when there is access to abundant liquidity. Inside banks, to induce effort, loan officers are compensated based on the volume of loans. Volume-based compensation also induces greater risk taking; however, due to lack of commitment, loan officers are penalized ex post only if banks suffer a high enough liquidity shortfall. Outside banks, when there is heightened macroeconomic risk, investors reduce direct investment and hold more bank deposits. This ‘flight to quality’ leaves banks flush with liquidity, lowering the sensitivity of bankers’ payoffs to downside risks and inducing excessive credit volume and asset price bubbles. The seeds of a crisis are thus sown.     

The permanent income hypothesis in five major industrial countries: a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition test

This paper presents a new test of the permanent income hypothesis in five major industrial countries. The test first decomposes consumption and income into their long run trend (permanent) and short run cyclical (transitory) components, using the recently developed multivariate stochastic detrending approach developed by Vahid and Engle (1997), among others. This approach exploits the presence of possible common stochastic trends and cycles among the variables in the system to arrive at a more efficient decomposition of these variables. Using the decomposition results, and in contrast to many articles in the literature, the paper finds support for the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, the paper finds that, while permanent consumption is related to permanent income, transitory consumption is related to neither permanent nor transitory income.

Economic sanctions and trade diversions in Sudan

The latest episode of the armed conflict between Northern and Southern Sudan erupted in 1983 and ended with the signing of the ＂Comprehensive Peace Agreement （CPA）＂ in 2005. The CPA allows for a referendum on independence for South Sudan in 2011. A similar scenario is possible for Darfur, where an armed conflict broke out in 2003 over demands for greater decentralization and development in the region. The peace agreement between the central government and the Eastern Sudan region continues to be fragile, and the risk of escalation of across the border spillovers of conflicts with Uganda and Chad persists. The U.S., EU, among other global players, is putting pressure on the Khartoum government to change its policies. Economic sanctions are among the tools used by the U.S. government while encouraging others follow suit. This paper investigates the response of the Sudanese economy to eliminating trade flows with the EU in the first phase and with East-Asian countries in the second. It discusses the changes in the macro-indicators, trade variables and welfare measures that would result. Moreover, it assesses the potential trade diversion and resource reallocation due to sanctions in each phase. To simulate these scenarios, detailed economic databases for Sudan, EU, East-Asian region, MENA, COMESA and the rest of the world are needed. For this purpose, GTAP Africa database and the standard GTAP model are employed. The 57 sectors of Africa database are aggregated to ten sectors including： grains and crops, livestock and meat products, mining and extraction, processed food, textiles and clothing, light manufacturing, heavy manufacturing, utilities and construction, transport and communication and other services. Moreover, the database regions are aggregated to six including Sudan, the EU, East Asia, MENA, COMESA and the Rest of the world. Results show that Sudanese trade reallocates to Asia in the first phase and to COMESA and MENA regions in the second. Sanctions exact a devastating toll on the Sudanese economy： GDP declines, trade shrinks and welfare deteriorates. The deterioration in the country＇s trade is mainly in the imports side, which justifies an improvement of the country＇s balance of trade, while welfare losses are derived by a deteriorated terms of trade and allocative efficiency.     

Islamic business research

The Islamic finance industry, which is deeply rooted in Islamic law (Sharia), will undoubtedly have an increasingly large impact on modern finance in the years to come. Since its formal establishment in the 1970s, the industry has already grown to US$2.2 trillion, with a growth rate that outpaces that of conventional finance. The purpose of this special issue is to inspire academic researchers, regulators and standard setters, and providers and users of Islamic funding to advance the research of critical issues related to the efficiency of Islamic finance.     

The interplay between the Bayesian and frequentist approaches: a general nesting spatial panel data model

The interplay between the Bayesian and Frequentist approaches: a general nesting spatial panel-data model. Spatial Economic Analysis. An econometric framework mixing the Frequentist and Bayesian approaches is proposed in order to estimate a general nesting spatial model. First, it avoids specific dependency structures between unobserved heterogeneity and regressors, which improves mixing properties of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedures in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. Second, it allows model selection based on a strong statistical framework, characteristics that are not easily introduced using a Frequentist approach. We perform some simulation exercises, finding good performance of the properties of our approach, and apply the methodology to analyse the relation between productivity and public investment in the United States.     

Optimal Carried Interest: Adverse Selection in Islamic and Conventional Venture Capital and Private-Equity Funds

In an optimal carried interest model with adverse selection, the optimal profit-loss sharing ratio (PSR) explains how the risk aversion of the two parties can affect their bargaining powers by allowing investors to detect the true risk aversion of fund managers and not their true skills. The higher the management fee, the higher is the PSR. Our simulation exercise shows that when the fund manager is more risk averse than the investor for a higher invested capital and weaker expected net profit, the optimal negotiated profit-sharing ratio will be higher.