Testing the ‘Fear of Floating’ Hypothesis: A Statistical Analysis for Eight African Countries

Open Economies Review - This paper revisits the fear of floating hypotheses for eight African countries from the collapse of the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system in the early 1970s up until...     

Current Accounts in the Long Run and the Intertemporal Approach: A Panel Data Investigation

This paper is a theory‐based study of the long‐run determinants of the current account (CA). For many OECD economies after the Second World War, there has been more long‐run variation in the CA data than is emphasised by a ‘Permanent Income’ version of the intertemporal approach that is based on consumption‐smoothing and that allows only transitory CA imbalances. A theoretical model of the CA is developed, based on the ‘broader’ variant of the intertemporal approach that stresses the long‐term component of the CA. We find that some key theoretical predictions hold, while others fail, validating the approach but also pointing to its limitations.     

Country characteristics and preferences over tax principles

The European Union has long maintained an intention to move to the origin principle of taxation, but no progress has been made since the completion of the single market. The lack of progress seems surprising, given the significant support for the origin principle in the economic literature. However, there is a contrast between the European Union that contains countries of widely different sizes and productivity levels, and the theoretical literature that has focused on models with symmetrical countries. We extend the modelling of preferences over tax principles to incorporate asymmetries in efficiency and size. We show that asymmetry can cause disagreement among countries over tax principles to be sustained even with close economic integration. Large countries and inefficient countries are shown to prefer the origin principle. In contrast, small countries and efficient countries can have a preference for the destination principle. These results provide an insight into the political economy of the impasse in European Union tax policy.     

Economy-wide benefits from water-intensive industries in South Africa: Quasi-input-output analysis of the contribution of irrigation agriculture and cultivated plantations in the Crocodile River catchment

A quasi-input-output framework was employed to measure and compare economy-wide benefits from irrigated crops and cultivated plantations in the Crocodile River catchment. The results of the analysis showed that it makes a huge difference to consider not only direct economic benefits from water-using activities, but also their economy-wide benefits and multisector linkages for evaluating water allocation regimes and policies. A completely opposite ranking of the compared activities was obtained when economy-wide effects (including indirect multipliers) were taken into account, compared with considering only direct benefits.     

Bank Performance around the Introduction of a Section 20 Subsidiary

As of 1987, commercial banks in the United States were allowed to establish Section 20 subsidiaries to conduct investment-banking activities. A concern of regulators was that these activities would result in a decrease in performance of commercial banks relative to the risk being undertaken. This paper examines the performance of commercial banks around the establishment of a Section 20 subsidiary. We find that Section 20 activities undertaken by banks result in increased industry-adjusted operating cash flow return on assets, due mainly to revenues from noncommercial-banking activities. Further, risk measures for the sample banks do not change significantly.     

Revisiting the Link Between Stock Prices and Goods Prices in OECD Countries

Fisher hypothesis postulates positive relation between stock return and inflation; however early studies document negative relationship between the two and they conclude that stock cannot be used as a hedge against inflation. In this paper we explore long‐run nonlinear relationship between stock price and goods price. Our sample consists of 19 OECD countries; all or some of these countries have been studied before with the findings of linear cointegration between the stock index and goods price index. Based on unit root tests and linear cointegration test, we apply threshold cointegration tests, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration test and panel VAR method. With all these econometric methods we arrive at heterogeneous findings as follows: two countries have linear cointegration, five countries have threshold cointegration, nine countries do not have any cointegration and finally two countries provide inconclusive results. Estimates of Fisher coefficient provided by linear and nonlinear cointegration methods, which range between 1.27 and 1.86, are consistent with previous studies. Impulse response analysis from panel VAR for countries having no cointegrating relation shows that shock to inflation produces negative response in stock return, which supports findings of earlier studies.     

Aggregate scale economies, market integration, and optimal welfare state policy

Using a two-sector-two-country model with aggregate scale economies and unionisation, we show that optimal welfare state policy entails positive levels of unemployment benefits under free-trade and capital mobility. In this setting, economic integration does not reduce the revenue raising capacity of governments and thus does not lead to a race-to-the-bottom in social standards. Instead, trade and capital flows interact with welfare state policies in increasing welfare even when each government acts independently (non-cooperatively) in determining its optimal welfare payment. Cooperation is shown to improve upon non-cooperative outcomes by raising both the generosity of the welfare state and aggregate welfare.     

Gender differences in low‐risk single‐occasion drinking: an application of the theory of planned behaviour

This study examines the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) in the context of adhering to the UK low‐risk single‐occasion drinking (LRSOD) guidelines. Additionally, gender differences were explored. A convenience sample of 110 female students and 107 male students provided information about their LRSOD behaviour, as well as views, attitudes and intention regarding keeping to the LRSOD limit. Results of this study show the theory of reasoned action rather than the TPB to be pertinent, accounting for 24% of the variance for the female sample and 36% for the male sample. Gender differences are evident in terms of perceived pressure from government and educational campaigns as well as perceived likelihood of positive consequences of adhering to the LRSOD guidelines. Implications of the findings are discussed.     

Economic reform,informal–formal sector linkages and intervention in the informal sector in developing countries: A paradox

Within a general equilibrium framework of a developing economy with a foreign owned factor of production, this paper questions whether the informal–formal sector relationship is pro-cyclical/complementary – expansion or contraction in one necessarily implies an expansion or contraction in the other – when the informal sector is subject to a technological shock. We derive a necessary and sufficient condition under which a positive shock to the informal sector results in an emphcontraction in both the size of the urban formal sector and the informal sector. Thus, although our result shows that the informal–formal sector relationship is pro-cyclical, it nevertheless calls into question the conventional wisdom on the benefits of intervention in the informal sector of developing economies, particularly where multinational corporations sub-contract certain labor-intensive stages of production to the informal sector.