The Forward Premium in the Nord Pool Power Market

This article investigates the forward premium of futures contracts in the Nordic power market for the time period from January 2004 to December 2013. We find that futures prices are biased predictors of the subsequent spot prices and that there is a significant forward premium in the Nord Pool market, particularly during the winter and autumn. We analyze the impact from several factors on the forward premium. The spot price, and the deviation of water inflow from its usual level, positively affect the forward premium. The variance of the spot price also has a positive effect on the forward premium, but only for the contract closest to delivery.     

Problems in cross-functional sourcing decision processes

We identify problems encountered in a cross-functional sourcing decision process, founded on a longitudinal case study at a large manufacturing company. Ten problems are identified which affect the process negatively and which derive from three underlying factors: functional interdependency, strategy complications and misaligned functional goals. These factors are long-observed in literature on organizations but not specifically in the cross-functional sourcing decision process and we add an investigation into the effects these factors have on attempts to make better-founded sourcing decisions. Our findings indicate that the reality of making sourcing decisions is often more complex than is portrayed in previous research on sourcing decisions.     

Volatility Linkages Among Gold Futures in Emerging Markets

We aim to detect the cross-border volatility linkages among gold futures in emerging markets, which still remain an untapped area. China, India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey, and U.S. futures markets are included in the sample. The volatility linkage analyses confirm the existence of volatility transmission among the majority of the sample countries’ gold futures. This article carries vital inferences and implications for policy makers and investors. The policy making is particularly important for China, which is a relatively isolated market. From investors’ perspective, the results indicate that the risk diversification and cross-market hedging opportunities in the emerging gold futures markets are quite limited.     

Perspective: State‐of‐the‐Art: The Quality of Case Study Research in Innovation Management

The practice of innovation management is developing fast. As new concepts emerge, exploratory studies are needed and case study research is often appropriate. To investigate the usage and quality of case study research in innovation management, all of the articles published in five top journals over 20 years (1997–2016) were reviewed. Case study research accounted for 818 of the published articles in this period (12%) and an evaluation template (termed ca se s tudy e valuation t emplate: CASET) was developed to objectively assess these articles against 10 quality criteria. It was found that the quality of case study research has often been low, although it has improved over time. Similarly, quality was found to fluctuate both within and between the different innovation journals. This indicates that the peer review process for case study research is not as robust as it should be. The assessment of individual articles using the evaluation template found significant deficiencies. Many articles: did not justify why case study research was appropriate; did not apply theoretical sampling criteria; were not transparent on how conclusions were drawn from the data; did not consider validity and reliability adequately; and did not go beyond description in their interpretation. However, the evaluation template also identified 23 “exemplary studies,” which clearly addressed nearly every criterion. Such exemplary studies provide innovation management researchers with “benchmark” reading, which can help shape their own research. This article makes four contributions to the innovation management discipline. First, the evaluation template and exemplary studies can help innovation researchers improve the quality of their case study research. Second, clear recommendations are given for how reviewers can use the template to make the peer review process more consistent and robust. Third, journal editors are encouraged to consider the implications of the findings for their particular journal. Fourth, the article should stimulate a long overdue debate on methodology in innovation management research, including the use of case study research.     

Nils Ekholm

Abstract

The problem of χ² tests of a linear hypothesis H₀ for ‘matched samples’ in attribute data has been discussed earlier by the author (Bennett, 1967, 1968). This note presents corresponding results for the hypothesis that the multinomial probabilities p satisfy (c ?1) functional restrictions: F ₁(p) = 0, ... , F _C?1(p) = 0. An explicit relationship between the usual ‘goodness-of-fit’ χ² and the modified minimum χ² (=χ*²) of Jeffreys (1938) and Neyman (1949) is demonstrated for this situation. An example of the test for the 2 × 2 × 2 contingency table is given and compared with the solution of Bartlett (1935).     

Online monitoring and assessment of emerging risk in conventional industrial plants: possible way to implement integrated risk management approach and KPI’s

Existing methodologies and practices do not provide enough possibility for online monitoring and assessment of emerging risks occurring as a result of a change in technology, product, operating conditions, as well as in organization of activities in conventional industrial plants. Typical today’s off and online methods and corresponding software packages are used as risk assessment methods, while various risk aspects (such as: process risks, process equipment integrity risks, organizational risks, and health and environmental risks) are being assessed and treated independently. However, it is clear that risk assessment and making decisions in line with that has to be based on information collected from different (independent) sources in online mode. Also, the fact that additional risks in operations may occur due to unexpected changes in technology, accidents or unexpected process equipment degradation should be taken into account. When monitoring and process management systems are being designed and developed, only the process aspect and process risk are usually analyzed, while other risk aspects are not taken into account (like health and environmental risks). A new approach, to be presented in this paper, provides a possibility of online monitoring and assessment of risks (e.g. in petrochemical industry, power industry, etc.).     

On the Complementarity of Equilibrium Exchange‐Rate Approaches

Based on a simple, stock–flow adjustment framework, we show that existing concepts of equilibrium exchange rates can be viewed as realizations of the same model at different time horizons. We then compare fundamental and behavioral estimations of equilibrium exchange rates based on the same, econometric modeling of the net foreign asset position in the long run, for a panel of 15 countries over the 1980–2005 period. These estimations suggest that, although more robust to alternative assumptions, the BEER approach may rely on excessive confidence on past behaviors in terms of portfolio choices. Symmetrically, FEERs may underestimate the plasticity of international capital markets because they focus on the adjustment of the trade balance.     

Remarks on the foundations of actuarial science

Abstract

In a paper entjtled ?Critical Thoughts on Actuarial Science? read before the Swedish Actuarial Society and published in this part of the Journal K. ENGLUND has expressed some views which gave rise to objections also from my part in the verbal discussion at the meeting of the Society. In the following lines I have tried to develop my views about the most important questions touched upon in his paper.     

The properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden

This article assesses the properties of survey-based inflation expectations in Sweden. The survey in question is conducted by Prospera once every quarter and consists of respondents from businesses and labour-market organisations. The article shows that inflation expectations measured in this survey tend to be biased and inefficient forecasts of future inflation. Moreover, evaluations of forecast accuracy show that these inflation expectations are worse predictors of inflation than those of a professional forecasting institution and also typically outperformed by a simple autoregressive model. Given that the true inflation expectations are captured by the survey, our results indicate that economic agents’ expectations formation process is suboptimal.