post-war economics' dead end (part 1)

In the first of two articles Sir Alfred Sherman, advisor to Conservative leaders in the 1970s and 1980s and a founder of the Centre for Policy Studies, claims that post-war economics has reached a dead-end.     

Political Profit: Taxing and Spending in the Hierarchical State

A bstract . The actions of government fall into two types: taxes (the taking of property ) and expenditures (the awarding of gifts ). Politicians profit as long as the value of resources raised from taxation exceeds the cost of expenditures. From their point of view, fiscal efficiency consists in maximizing the support obtained by spending and minimizing the opposition generated by taxing. This is accomplished by spending on well-organized groups and taxing the uninformed public. This results in the "iron law of political redistribution" in which income and wealth are transferred from the latter to the former. In a hierarchical State , it is usually profitable for those at the top to centralize control over taxing and spending, if for no other reason than to make it difficult for politicians at lower levels to compete against them. This gives rise to the "law of hierarchical centralization "—in a hierarchical State, power becomes centralized over time. The greater the power of government, the faster this process takes place. In order to avoid this problem, one could design constitutions which are non-hierarchical in nature, in which each unit of government is completely autonomous from the others, as firms are in a free market.     

Analysis of arrest rates for trends in criminality

During the 1960s, the United States experienced a substantial increase in crime with the rates of reported crime more than doubling. It has been postulated that the increase in the proportion of young adults in the population which also occurred during the Sixties is a primary factor in the increase in crime. In this paper, we attempt to explore this question by partitioning the recent increases in rates between an increasing crime-committing propensity for various demographic groups on one hand, and a changing demographic mix to the other. We do this by analyzing arrest rates by demographic group over time. However, since arrest rates are a complex function of both criminality and police activity, a model is developed which attempts to distinguish between these phenomena. The model is estimated using data on age, race, and sex-specific arrest rates for Pittsburgh residents over the period 1967–1972. The results of the analysis suggest that there has been no significant increase in criminality for men in the Pittsburgh population, while there is some evidence of increased criminality for women. However, this increase may reflect an increased willingness of the police to arrest women. We hesitate to generalize our conclusions too widely from the experience of a single urban center. Additional analysis, using the model developed here, of arrest rates from other cities or regions would do much to illuminate this very significant issue.     

A note on black economic well-being in the North and West

Conclusion These very positive gains in economic well-being for certain categories of black families do not surprise us. Those in which the head is under 35 and live in the North and the West have had relatively more opportunity open to them as a result of some of the strong enforcement policies of the late sixties and affirmative action programs. This group of the black population, by and large, is better educated, more mobile, and more job-ready. It is, therefore, in a position to be more productive and thereby earn relatively higher incomes when society relaxes some of its discriminating tendencies. No such advantages, however, are available to the households headed by females or older households which comprise the overwhelming members of families in poverty.     

The new protectionism and the limits of structural adjustment

However sharp the clash between the industrial countries' notions of a world economic order and those of the developing countries, one point is gaining increasing importance for both camps: the fight against spreading protectionism. Rising import barriers in the North restrict the developing countries opportunities to increase their foreign currency earnings, to come to grips with their debt problems and to push ahead with industrial development. Those concerned with economic policy in the North fear an escalation of trade discrimination that would gradually neutralise the allocative function of the market, hamper recovery from the present recession, encourage inflation and lead to the inefficient organisation of production throughout the world. Why is protectionism so difficult to halt in spite of the unanimous condemnation of it?     

The implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand: What factors affect the 90-day bank bill rate?

This paper discusses the implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand and its flow-on effects on the 90-day bank bill rate over the 1999–2005 period. The effects of external factors are considered as well. Our findings indicate that the maturity spectrum ratio exerted a positive effect on the 90-day bank bill rate while the allotment ratio did not. This interest rate had a tendency to revert to the level set by its Australian counterpart, though at a relatively slow speed. No such link exists between the NZ 90-day rate and the U.S. 90-day rate. Neither the maturity spectrum nor the allotment ratio contributed to the volatility of the most important short-term interest rate in New Zealand.