China’s house price: Affected by economic fundamentals or real estate policy?

Many theory and empirical literature conclude that house price can reflect economic fundamentals in the long-term. However, by using China’s panel data of 35 main cities stretching from 1998 to 2007, we find that there is no stable relationship between house price and economic fundamentals. House price has deviated upward from the economic fundamentals since government started macro-control of the real estate market. We consider that the mechanism between the house price and economic fundamentals is distorted by China’s real estate policy, especially its land policy. Meanwhile the policy itself is an important factor in explaining the changes of China’s house price. Then we estimate the dynamic panel data model on house price and the variables which are controlled by real estate policy. The result shows: land supply has negative effects on house price; financial mortgages for real estate have positive effects on house price; and the area of housing sold and the area of vacant housing, which reflects the supply and demand of the housing market, has negative effects on house price. We also find some differences in house price influence factor between eastern and mid-western cities. Finally, we propose policy suggestions according to the empirical results.     

我国民间借贷危机及防范对策建议——以中小企业民间融资为视角

目前,我国金融体制不健全、宏观经济政策调控不力以及法律监管存在漏洞造成了整个经济的不稳定,引发了民间借贷危机。这不仅造成中小企业财务危机,而且还将风险波及银行系统和实体产业。为解决民间借贷危机、促进中小企业融资,必须建立健全正规金融体制,消除融资“双轨制”,完善民间借贷监控体系,从适度干预的角度促进中小企业民间金融市场的发展。     

黄晓明：带着欲望来赴宴

黄晓明在《夜宴》饰演的太尉主子殷隼,缠绕在亲情与欲望之间,从毫无心计到参与权谋争斗,是一个亦正亦邪的角色.虽然台词也只是寥寥数语,但却以绝对优势的票数领先葛优,成为网民们在这部戏里最期待的演员.     

上市公司财务状况评价研究

利用SPSS统计分析软件,根据反映上市公司财务状况的9个指标所组成的指标体系,采用主成分分析和聚类分析两种统计方法,选用中小企业板50家公司2004年年报中的数据,进行分析,从而得出反映上市公司财务状况的基本排名。这将对现实应用有一定的实际意义。     

The Subnational Penn Effect: Evidence from China

In this paper we estimate relative consumer price levels as of 2008 for 36 major Chinese cities, using an innovative method purposely designed to rectify three main defects of the existing literature, which are (1) the under-representation of marketized services in the sample data, (2) biased consumption weights, and (3) a mismatch between sample classification and consumption weights. Our estimation results show the “subnational Penn effect” as defined by Tang (2012), i.e., strong inter-city correlations among population size, the relative price level, per capita nominal and real income, and human capital stock, thereby showing that the theoretical model of inter-city price dispersion proposed by Tang (2012) is applicable in China. Our conclusion, methodology, and estimation results have important implications for various aspects of the Chinese economy including the regional, urban and real-estate economies.     

关于加强金融国有资产监督管理的思考

为适应金融全球化和市场经济发展的需要,对金融管理体制的改革势在必行,在这种环境下,有必要重新构建新型的金融监管体系,成立金融监督委员会;同时在国务院国有资产监督管理委员会下组建专门的金融国有资产管理机构,履行国家金融资本出资人职责,有效防范金融风险,促进国有金融资本的保值增值。     

更新观念正确界定教育组织的产品

正确界定教育组织的产品，关系到教育改革的方向与效果。近年来，本刊多次刊载相关文章进行讨论。王化义先生在2004年7月《中国民办教育》杂志上发表的论文《国家质量管理体系标准的教育产品观》较全面地分析了社会上(特别是教育界)不同的观点，其论述体现了目前国内外普遍的看法。现摘要发表以飨读者(文章标题是编者所加)。     

俄罗斯进口原油中水含量检验标准的比对研究

通过对有关原油中水含量检验的俄罗斯GОSТ标准、ISO标准、ASTM标准以及我国的GB标准进行比对研究,找出了存在于标准间的关键差异点;根据标准规定的方法进行对比试验,发现采用GОSТ和GB标准得到的结果明显存在偏差,此为解决国际原油贸易谈判和争端提供了实验依据。     

Spatial-Temporal Changes of Housing Bubbles in China’s Major Cities: 1999 to 2012

Existing literature is characterized by certain deficiencies in measuring housing bubbles in China. By extending the analytical framework of Black et al. (2006) to a spatial panel VAR structure, this paper measures housing bubbles in China’s 35 major cities from 1999Q2 to 2012Q3 and analyzes the spatial-temporal changes of the housing bubbles in these cities. Results indicate that 1) changes to housing bubbles in most cities highly correspond with changes in the main real estate policies of the country and 2) housing bubbles in eastern developed cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Ningbo, have been relatively large in recent years although the average housing bubble is not very serious over the 35 major cities. Through the Kernel Density Function and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation analysis, this paper finds that housing bubbles are concentrated in several eastern developed cities. Based on empirical analysis, this paper proposes policy recommendations on inhibiting the expansion and diffusion of housing bubbles.     

论国家审计对权力的制约和监督

党的“十六大”报告在加强对权力的制约和监督时指出:建立结构合理、配置科学、程序严密、制约有效的权力运行机制,从决策和执行等环节加强对权力的监督,保证把人民赋予的权力真正用来为人民谋利益……发挥司法机关和行政监察、审计等职能部门的作用。如何发挥审计职能来加强对权力的制约和监督,创造良好的权力运行环境,防止腐败现象的产生,这是新形势下党中央对审计机关提出的新要求,也是摆在审计人员面前的新课题,需要结合审计工作实际从审计理论上进行研究和探讨,提出对权力进行制约和监督的内容、方式和审计重点。