Abstracts

Quality & Quantity -     

LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY COMPARISON BETWEEN CZECHOSLOVAKIA AND FRANCE

This paper reports on the results of the bilateral study of the comparison of levels of labor productivity in industry between Czechoslovakia and France in 28 branches of industry. Because of the importance of common studies of the questions of productivity of labor and its international comparison, the Economic Commission for Europe of the U.N. decided several years ago to introduce a concrete programme of work in this sphere. This study was made jointly by Czechoslovakia and France. The present paper reports on the first stage of the study, giving results based on physical unit methods. The second stage of the work includes comparisons for branches of industry not covered in this paper, on the basis of value indicator methods; detailed results will be published in respective U.N. series to the end of 1969 (Series Conf. Eur. Stats.).     

DEA APPLIED TO A GAUTENG SAMPLE OF PUBLIC HOSPITALS1

The research presented in this paper provides an analysis of the delivery of a few health care services by the public sector in Gauteng, South Africa. The data for the study was especially difficult to collect, suggesting the need for hospital level data information systems, as well as staff who are trained to analyze the information collected. The empirical results from the analysis suggest that services provided by small‐scale medical facilities waste fewer resources, while medical centres offering more technical services, such as surgeries, also appear to deliver medical services more efficiently.     

The optimal growth of the firm in a growing environment

The paper presents a growth model based on three essential assumptions: perfect knowledge of the future, descreasing returns on investment in a stagnant economy, appearance of new investment possibilities with the growth of the economy. Two cases are considered: the self-financing growth and the borrowing situation in the context of two management policies, the maximization of the discounted flow of dividends and the maximization of the growth rate.     

Bayesian regression analysis using poly-t densities

Poly-t densities are defined by the property that their kernel is a product, or ratio of products, of Student-t kernels. These multivariate densities arise as Bayesian posterior densities for regression coefficients, under a surprising variety of specifications for the prior density and the data generating process. Although no analytical expression exists for the integrating constant and moments of these densities, these parameters are obtained through numerical integration in a number of dimensions given by the number of Student-t kernels in the numerator, minus one. The paper reviews how poly-t densities arise in regression analysis, and summarizes the results obtained for a number of models.     

Two scenarios for Europe: “Europe confronted with high energy prices” or “Europe after oil peaking”

A significant change in trends regarding energy prices (in particular oil) has taken place in 2003 at the beginning of the Iraq War. It has revealed a very strong tension between oil prices on the one hand and the relationship between global oil supply and demand on the other. The strong growth rates of emerging economies up to 2008 have generated a very sharp increase in oil prices. The temporary economic recession of 2008-2009 has resulted in turn into a significant decrease of oil prices, down to a level which remained, however, twice as high as that of early 2003. With the economy recovering from the recession, it is highly probable that energy prices will continue to increase and that Europe will be confronted with high energy prices in the coming decades. Against this general background, two scenarios have been elaborated which differ mainly by the time of occurrence of oil peaking.¹ The differences between the scenario hypotheses are therefore differences of context in relation to exogenous factors. Policies are also considered in the scenarios, but they are not at the forefront and their impact is considered as limited in relation to that of exogenous factors.The first scenario “Europe in a context of high energy price” assumes that the process of oil peaking will not take place before 2030, but that oil price increase will nevertheless be sustained and substantial until then. Numerous adjustments will have to be made in the economy and their territorial impacts will be significant (less polycentricity, more compact cities, decline of the importance of road and air transport). The second scenario “Europe after oil production peaking” assumes that oil production will peak around the mid-2010s (followed by gas production peaking around 2025), despite significant investments to increase production. In a context of steadily growing oil and gas demand, Europe will be confronted with serious economic difficulties. The territorial impacts will be different from those suggested by the first scenario, with stronger pressure put on rural areas and a loss of attractiveness of large cities related to increasing unemployment and social tensions. In both scenarios, the countries of central and eastern Europe will be more severely hit by the new energy context.The scenarios were elaborated in 2005 and slightly reviewed in 2009 in order to take account of the impacts of the economic recession in Europe and of the growing concerns about climate change.     

Incumbency advantage and its value

Markets with network effects are typically concentrated. The aim of this paper is to discuss some recent work on “incumbency advantage.” That is, the fact that firms already installed generate higher profits than entrants even if the latter offer identical or even better terms (in terms of price and quality) to consumers. In particular, we review recently known sources of the advantage and potential mitigating factors and point to a number of open issues.     

Encouraging employees to co-operate: the effects of sponsored training and promotion practices on employees' willingness to work overtime

The ‘mutual-investment’ model argues that when employers invest more in the social exchange relationship between them and their employees, their employees will show more effort. In this paper we relate the ‘mutual-investment’ model to training and promotion (possibilities) and examine if these kinds of career-enhancing measures influence the willingness of employees within organizations to work overtime. To test this hypothesis, a vignette experiment was conducted in five organizations (N = 388; 1,531 vignettes). Multilevel analyses show that employees are more willing to work overtime when their employer has provided for training, when the employee recently was promoted, when the supervisor was supportive in the past and when co-workers approve of working overtime and behave similarly. But we did not find that future promotion chances affect willingness to work overtime.     

The Last Word on the Wage Curve?

Abstract.  Since 1990, there has been extensive international research on the responsiveness of wages of individuals to changing local labour market conditions. For many countries, an inverse relationship between wages and local unemployment rates has been found. In their book, The Wage Curve , Blanchflower and Oswald argued that the unemployment elasticity of pay is around −0.1 in most countries. In a 1995 literature survey, Card referred to this striking empirical regularity as being close to an 'empirical law of economics'. Nonetheless, reported elasticities do vary, even excluding outliers, between about −0.5 and +0.1. There is also considerable heterogeneity among wage curve studies in terms of data and model specification. This paper carries out meta‐analytic techniques on a sample of 208 elasticities derived from the literature to uncover the reasons for the differences in empirical results across studies. Several causes of variation are identified. There is also clear evidence of downward publication bias. In addition, many reported t ‐statistics are biased upwards due to the use of aggregate unemployment rates. A maximum likelihood method and a trimming procedure are used to correct for these biases. Both methods give similar results for our sample. An unbiased estimate of the wage curve elasticity at the means of study characteristics is about −0.07.