央行沟通与通货膨胀预期

通过合理政策有效引导通货膨胀预期对当前中国经济具有重要现实意义.本文用自回归分布滞后模型和EGARCH模型捕捉央行沟通对通胀预期及其波动的影响.实证结果表明:央行沟通传递的货币政策信息被市场有效捕捉和解读,实现了通胀预期管理目的,增加沟通频率能有效降低通胀预期波动;但央行的"言行偏离"加剧了短期通胀预期波动,降低了央行沟通和货币政策操作的实际效果;通胀预期存在分布厚尾性和右偏斜,市场出现极端预期的概率较大,且更倾向于预期通胀上升,通胀预期波动的群聚特性表明其具有阶段性自我强化特征.研究结论为央行沟通的有效性提供了实证支撑,揭示出的通胀预期分布特征对提高央行预期管理措施的针对性具有参考价值.     

Information Entropy-Based Housing Spatiotemporal Dependence

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - In the existing housing literature, there has been no academic consensus on how to combine the spatial dependence and the temporal dependence...     

Further Mining the Predictability of Moving Averages: Evidence from the US Stock Market

Most studies on the predictability of moving average (MA) technical analysis use the discrete (buy/sell) trading recommendations. However, it is possibly incomplete or unreliable to explore the predictability of MA by only employing its generated trading signals. To further explore the forecastability of MA, we study its measurable impact on the stock market returns by using a conventional predictive regression framework. Our empirical study on the US stock market with respect to more detailed price information finds, (i) that the proposed predictor, MADP (MA based on daily prices) shows significant predictability in‐ and out‐of‐sample, and significantly outperforms the historical average (HA) benchmark as well as the MA based on monthly prices, (ii) that the predictability of MADP centers on the short‐term lags (within the most recent 10 days) and disappears when lags are beyond 20 days, and (iii) that the economic evaluation of the portfolios based on trading strategies confirms the superior performance of MADP with short‐term lags against the benchmark even though considering transaction costs.     

Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China

Theory suggests that a close match between revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels benefits allocative efficiency, and hence economic growth. That is, a convergence of revenue and expenditure assignments at sub-national levels of government should, according to the theory, be positively associated with a higher growth rate. In the case of China, this paper shows, divergence, rather than convergence, in revenue and expenditures at the sub-national level of government is associated with higher rates of growth. A panel dataset for 30 provinces in China is used to examine the relationship between fiscal decentralization and economic growth over two phases of fiscal decentralization in China: (1) 1979–1993 under the fiscal contract system, and (2) 1994–1999 under the tax assignment system. The seeming contradiction between the theory and evidence in the China case is reconciled by taking into account the institutional arrangements that prevailed during the two phases of fiscal decentralization, in particular the inconsistency between the assumptions of the theory of fiscal decentralization and the institutional reality of China.     

苏南、苏中和苏北对外开放度与经济增长关系的实证分析

一个国家或地区的经济开放程度涉及很多方面，如贸易国际化、资本国际化、劳动力跨国流动、技术引进和输出等。基于操作上简便易行、指标上具有可比性和连续性、资料易于搜集和量化等原则，本文拟选择出口额、实际利用外商直接投资额与GDP建立对外开放度这一指标。通常情况下，有些学者还会考虑国际投资开放度这个指标，但是．在计划计算苏南、苏中及苏北的国际投资开放度这一指标时发现：一方面由于统计资料的限制．另一方面由于苏南、苏中及苏北的对外投资数额很小，     

第四方物流的经营与发展

我国加入WTO后，国外物流企业进入中国物流市场，将给我国物流业带来发展机遇，也带来竞争压力，因此．我国物流企业必须运用现代物流理念，加快发展，建设高标准、高质量的物流体系。本文就是希望通过时第四方物流这一新兴物流理念的研究探讨，找出能推进我国物流业的发展思路。     

城市贫困人群的医疗救助问题研究

随着城市居民最低生活保障制度的实施和不断完善,城市贫困人群的生活得到了一定程度的改善。但是,在现有体制下,贫困人群的医疗问题日益凸显出来,他们在医疗方面实际上处于一种双重缺失状态,如果不解决好这个问题,有可能会影响到整个社会保障制度的完善和社会的稳定。     

城市房屋拆迁中的公共利益在程序法上的界定——兼评《城市房屋拆迁管理条例》第十六条

公共利益内涵在立法上的缺失,造成大量个人利益被侵犯的案例,在城市房屋拆迁中尤其突出。本文通过探讨如何从程序上赋予受公共利益影响者参与对公共利益内涵的确定以及在个人利益受到侵犯时给予司法救济的途径的问题,试图从法律程序上限制政府对公共利益的滥用,并最大程度地维护公民的个人利益,以此暂时回避对公共利益内涵问题的探讨。