On the Role of Futures Trading in Spot Market Fluctuations: Perpetrator of Volatility or Victim of Regret?

We examine the role of index futures trading in spot market volatility. We use the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) approach to measure volatility, analyze causality and feedback relations between volatilities in the spot and futures markets, and test various hypotheses in the context of a multivariate model that incorporates other macrostate variables. Our empirical results suggest index futures trading may not be blamed for the observed volatility in the spot market. Rather, we find stronger and more consistent support for the alternative posture that volatility in the futures market is an outgrowth of a turbulent cash market. We use the regret (cognitive dissonance) theory to explain our results.     

Cointegration of U.S. budget and current account deficits: Twins or strangers?

In this paper the authors employ the cointegration approach to explore empirically the existence of a possible long-run equilibrium relationship between the U.S. budget deficits and the current account deficits. This study uses annual nominal data in levels for the postwar period 1946–1988. Both the DW and the ADF tests confirm that the two deficits are not cointegrated. It implies that the two deficits have no possibility of reverting to a long-run equilibrium relation.     

Epidemiological patterns of suicide terrorism in the civilian Pakistani population

In this study, we assessed the epidemiological patterns of suicide terrorism in the civilian population of Pakistan. Information about suicide terrorism-related events, deaths and injuries was extracted from the South-Asian Terrorism Portal (SATP) for the period from 2002 to October 2009. Of 198 events, civilians were involved in 194 events. Civilians accounted for 74.1% (N?=?2017) of those who died and 93.8% (N?=?6129) of those who were injured. In nine districts, mortality rates were more than one death per 100,000 inhabitants per year. The yearly trend showed a shift of attack targets from foreigners and sectarian targets in 2002-2005 to security forces or general public in 2006-2009. Attacks on public installations (mosques) or political gatherings resulted in a significantly greater (P?≤?0.02) number of deaths (22 vs. 8) and injuries (59 vs. 24) per event compared with security installations. These results show that prevention might focus on political negotiation with armed groups and that appropriate measures should be taken to protect mosques and political gatherings.     

Bioelectricity in Malaysia: economic feasibility,environmental and deforestation implications

We investigate the economic feasibility of bioelectricity production from biomass in Malaysia and its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storage, agricultural prices, agricultural employment and deforestation. For this purpose, we develop a partial equilibrium model that projects agricultural prices, production, imports, exports, domestic consumption and land use in 5‐year increments between 2015 and 2065. Our results show that by 2030 biomass‐generated electricity can supply 36.5 per cent of the electricity generated in Malaysia, 16 times more than the 2016 electricity supply from biomass. Increased bioelectricity production from biomass will significantly reduce GHG emissions and will help Malaysia meet its commitment in the Paris Agreement to mitigate GHG emission by 45 per cent before 2030. Our modelling shows that biomass‐generated electricity creates a derived demand for waste biomass that expands the area of oil palm plantations. The expansion lowers agricultural prices, boosts agricultural employment and leads to some deforestation as landowners clear rainforest to plant oil palm trees. Nonetheless, the deforestation does not increase GHG emissions since GHG gains from bioelectricity significantly exceed GHG losses from deforestation.     

Pioneering Versus Incremental Innovation: Review and Research Propositions

Marketing's role in supporting a company's efforts to develop pioneering and incremental products can be quite different. Abdul Ali examines published articles and offers a set of propositions to show how several factors influence the product development decision. He cites examples from the business world to illustrate these propositions. This article suggests that a firm should take into account several factors relating to its capabilities, along with various project and market characteristics, in order to decide what products it should develop.     

Shadow Banking Credit Intermediation： Determinants of Default Risks in Securitization and Collateralization

The growth in shadow banking system over the past few years is acknowledged as the key risk to Malaysia＇s financial stability. This is because that it is associated with growth in the household debts extended by the shadow banks. In line with initiatives by the Bank Negara Malaysia （the Central Bank of Malaysia） to enhance surveillance on the activities of the shadow banks in Malaysia, this study attempts to examine the determinants of default risks of shadow banks restricting to focus on their two main activities： securitization and collateralization. The results provide empirical evidence that future methodology to examine the systemic risks in the shadow banking system may need to account for additional explanatory variables that measure collateralized assets that are being intermediated.