Changing threat perceptions and the efficient provisioning of international security

This paper proposes a mechanism for structuring international institutions to efficiently provision global security against the threat of a rogue nation, by an alliance of nations. This paper investigates how the evolution of public opinion, in the respective countries facing the rogue nation's threat, affects the mechanism. It also analyzes the impact of “fair‐weather friends” within the alliance, i.e., allies that increase support for security effort when the threat becomes less dangerous but withdraw support in more dangerous circumstances. Additionally, it explores how the possibility of sequential action by the allies, rather than simultaneous action, might affect joint security efforts.     

Major bleeding risk and healthcare economic outcomes of non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients newly-initiated with oral anticoagulant therapy in the real-world setting

Aims: This study compared the risk for major bleeding (MB) and healthcare economic outcomes of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) after initiating treatment with apixaban vs rivaroxaban, dabigatran, or warfarin.

Methods: NVAF patients who initiated apixaban, rivaroxaban, dabigatran, or warfarin were identified from the IMS Pharmetrics Plus database (January 1, 2013–September 30, 2015). Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to balance differences in patient characteristics between study cohorts: patients treated with apixaban vs rivaroxaban, apixaban vs dabigatran, and apixaban vs warfarin. Risk of hospitalization and healthcare costs (all-cause and MB-related) were compared between matched cohorts during the follow-up.

Results: During the follow-up, risks for all-cause (hazard ratio [HR]?=?1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI]?=?1.2–1.7) and MB-related (HR?=?1.57, 95% CI?=?1.0–2.4) hospitalizations were significantly greater for patients treated with rivaroxaban vs apixaban. Adjusted total all-cause healthcare costs were significantly lower for patients treated with apixaban vs rivaroxaban ($3,950 vs $4,333 per patient per month [PPPM], p?=?.002) and MB-related medical costs were not statistically significantly different ($100 vs $233 PPPM, p?=?.096). Risk for all-cause hospitalization (HR?=?1.98, 95% CI?=?1.6–2.4) was significantly greater for patients treated with dabigatran vs apixaban, although total all-cause healthcare costs were not statistically different. Risks for all-cause (HR?=?2.22, 95% CI?=?1.9–2.5) and MB-related (HR?=?2.05, 95% CI?=?1.4–3.0) hospitalizations were significantly greater for patients treated with warfarin vs apixaban. Total all-cause healthcare costs ($3,919 vs $4,177 PPPM, p?=?.025) and MB-related medical costs ($96 vs $212 PPPM, p?=?.026) were significantly lower for patients treated with apixaban vs warfarin.

Limitations: This retrospective database analysis does not establish causation.

Conclusions: In the real-world setting, compared with rivaroxaban and warfarin, apixaban is associated with reduced risk of hospitalization and lower healthcare costs. Compared with dabigatran, apixaban is associated with lower risk of hospitalizations.     

Conceptualizing the Evolution and Future of Advertising

Technology has irreversibly changed the way that firms identify who is more likely to buy, what they are more likely to buy, when they are more likely to buy, why they are likely to buy, and how they are likely to buy, repurchase, and recommend. It is now easier than ever for firms to have a body of evidence in the form of actual insights, as opposed to having mere guestimates, on consumers' apparent intentions to buy. Power dynamics have changed in the marketing climate, and firms have to factor in not only aggressive competitors but also empowered customers with limited attention spans. In such a climate, what lies in the future for advertising? And how can marketing managers make the most of the changing climate and maximize their returns on advertising? How can academics advance research related to maximizing the effectiveness and efficiency of advertising? These are the questions that this article addresses via an integrated framework that expounds all the factors related to customers, firms, technological environment, and data resources, as well as the contextual factors, including product life cycle, customer life cycle, and so on, and their collective impact on advertising strategy, which includes advertising content, media selection, message, and targeting.     

Investigating the Pleasures of Sin: The Contingent Role of Arousal‐Seeking Disposition in Consumers' Evaluations of Vice and Virtue Product Offerings

Mixed bundles of vice and virtue are an increasingly important product category. However, many mixed bundles fail in the marketplace, and so it is important to examine how consumers evaluate such mixed bundles. This paper examines consumers' affective responses and consequent purchase evaluations for a mixed vice‐virtue bundle versus a pure vice product. Results of Study 1 show that purchase intentions are higher for a pure vice product versus a mixed product; also, increased purchase intentions are mediated by differences in arousal. Given that consumers differ in their arousal‐seeking dispositions, results of Studies 2 and 3 show that individual differences in arousal‐seeking moderate the relationship between product type (pure vice product vs. mixed product) and purchase intentions, with arousal‐seeking consumers preferring pure vice bundles, and arousal‐avoidant consumers preferring mixed bundles. This paper contributes to theory on mixed vice‐virtue bundles, and also provides pointers on how to better market mixed bundles.     

Does conditionality in IMF-supported programs promote revenue reform?

This paper studies whether revenue conditionality in Fund programs had any impact on the revenue performance of 126 low- and middle-income countries during 1993–2013. The results indicate that such conditionality had a positive impact on tax revenue, with strongest improvement felt on taxes on goods and services, including the VAT. Revenue conditionality matters more for low-income countries, particularly those where revenue ratios are below the group average. Moreover, revenue conditionality appears to be more effective when targeted to a specific tax. These results hold after controlling for potential endogeneity, sample selection bias, and when revenues are adjusted for economic cycle.     

Private saving in India and Malaysia compared: the roles of financial liberalization and expected pension benefits

In this article, we provide a comparative account of the evolution of private saving in India and Malaysia, and analyze how policy changes in the financial sector and pension system help explain differences in their saving performance. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds estimation procedure, we find a fairly robust long-run relationship between private saving and its determinants in both countries. Consistent with the predictions made in the life cycle model, our results indicate that higher income growth stimulates private saving and an increase in age dependency retards private saving. The results provide some support for the hypothesis that financial liberalization results in lower private saving in both countries. The evidence also indicates that expected pension benefits tend to stimulate private saving in India, but that the reverse is found in Malaysia.     

New evidence on the convergence of international income from a group of 29 countries

This paper updates and extends the time-series evidence on the convergence of international incomes using a set of 29 countries over the period 1900–2001. Time-series tests for stochastic convergence are supplemented with tests which provide evidence on the notion of “β-convergence” predicted by the Solow model. The evidence indicates that the relative income series of 21 countries are consistent with stochastic convergence, and that β-convergence has occurred in at least 16 countries at some point during the twentieth century. Further examination of the properties of the β-convergence test provides anecdotal evidence of conditional convergence in three additional countries for which the convergence hypothesis was initially rejected. Consideration of convergence clubs strengthens the evidence in favor of convergence. Analysis of the cross-country dispersion of incomes over time also suggests that convergence has occurred over the 1900–2001 period, particularly within certain clubs, with structural breaks associated with World War II in many countries causing a break in the convergence process.      

An in-sample and out-of-sample empirical investigation of the nonlinearity in house prices of South Africa

This paper tests whether housing prices in the five segments of the South African housing market, namely large-middle, medium-middle, small-middle, luxury and affordable, exhibit non-linearity based on smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models estimated using quarterly data from 1970:Q2 to 2009:Q3. Findings point to an overwhelming evidence of non-linearity in these five segments based on in-sample evaluation of the linear and non-linear models. We next provide further support for non-linearity by comparing one- to four-quarters-ahead out-of-sample forecasts of the non-linear time series model with those of the classical and Bayesian versions of the linear autoregressive (AR) models for each of these segments, for the out-of-sample horizon 2001:Q1 to 2009:Q3, using the in-sample period 1970:Q2 to 2000:Q4. Our results indicate that barring the one-, two and four-step(s)-ahead forecasts of the small segment, the non-linear model always outperforms the linear models. In addition, given the existence of strong causal relationship amongst the house prices of the five segments, the multivariate versions of the linear (classical and Bayesian) and STAR (MSTAR) models were also estimated. The MSTAR always outperformed the best performing univariate and multivariate linear models. Thus, our results highlight the importance of accounting for non-linearity, as well as the possible interrelationship amongst the variables under consideration, especially for forecasting.     

Accountability and legitimacy in earth system governance: A research framework

Along with concerns over the effectiveness of earth system governance, ways of enhancing its accountability and legitimacy are increasingly coming to the fore in both scholarly debate and political practice. Concerns over accountability and legitimacy pertain to all levels of governance, from the local to the global, and cover the spectrum of public and private governance arrangements. This conceptual article elaborates on the sources, mechanisms and reform options relating to more accountable, legitimate and democratic earth system governance. We proceed in four steps. First, we conceptualize accountability and legitimacy in earth system governance. Second, we place questions of accountability and legitimacy within the larger context of earth system transformation, which, we argue, poses special challenges to the pursuit of accountability and legitimacy. Third, drawing on the contributions to this special section, we analyze different sources and mechanisms of accountability and legitimacy and their effects on the democratic potential and effectiveness of governance. Fourth, in concluding, we outline reform options that may help alleviate persisting deficits in the democratic potential of earth system governance.