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111.
Marius D. Pascariu Adam Lenart Vladimir Canudas-Romo 《Scandinavian actuarial journal》2013,2013(8):661-685
ABSTRACTThe age-at-death distribution is a representation of the mortality experience in a population. Although it proves to be highly informative, it is often neglected when it comes to the practice of past or future mortality assessment. We propose an innovative method to mortality modeling and forecasting by making use of the location and shape measures of a density function, i.e. statistical moments. Time series methods for extrapolating a limited number of moments are used and then the reconstruction of the future age-at-death distribution is performed. The predictive power of the method seems to be net superior when compared to the results obtained using classical approaches to extrapolating age-specific-death rates, and the accuracy of the point forecast (MASE) is improved on average by 33% respective to the state-of-the-art, the Lee–Carter model. The method is tested using data from the Human Mortality Database and implemented in a publicly available R package. 相似文献
112.
During the NCAA basketball tournaments from 2002 to 2005, men's games produced 27% more upsets than women's games. To test whether these unpredictable results were due to gender differences, we conduct logit analysis to explain upsets by gender and other potentially significant variables, including differences in competing teams’: (i) RPI scores, (ii) percentage of freshmen, (iii) percentage of seniors, (iv) top scorer's total points and, (v) top three scorers’ total points. These analyses suggest that gender plays a significant role in explaining predictability. 相似文献
113.
This study is the first multi-year examination of the relative influence of the four main variables said to influence sponsorship recall. Sponsor recall data were collected from season ticket holders (STHs) of 10 professional sports teams, over periods ranging from 3 to 5 years per team. Across those teams and over that time, 309 sponsor–team relationships were examined, and sponsor recall data from over 117,000 individual STHs were collected. Sponsorship length and level were shown to have the strongest impact on recall, followed by relatedness and prominence. These variables affected both the recall of current sponsors and the decay rates of residual recall following the end of a sponsorship. The average rates of sponsor recall growth and decline have been derived from these data, giving managers a tool by which to benchmark sport sponsorship recall performance. 相似文献
114.
Whether ENSO has affected U.S. macroeconomic performance has been a matter of dispute. To address the issue we explore whether there has been any co-cyclicality of ENSO fluctuations and the rates of inflation and economic growth over the 1894-1999 timespan and, failing this, whether aperiodic ENSO shocks have had any impact on these variables. Neither co-cyclicality nor aperiodic shocks are discernible. While ENSO may briefly influence the performance of particular sectors of the economy in particular regions, as documented by the previous literature, such locally-important effects vanish into the noise surrounding macroeconomic trends in an economy as large and complex as that of the U.S. 相似文献
115.
116.
Evidence supporting the positive effects of capital account liberalization on growth is mixed at best. Even after conditioning on the quality of domestic financial institutions, a significant number of studies still find no effect. One possible explanation is reverse causation. If low growth countries liberalize in order to spur growth, the observed correlation between growth and liberalization will underestimate the impact of capital account openness. To eliminate this bias, I instrument capital account liberalization with the average level of openness of other countries to capture the “fad” element in financial liberalization. IV estimates indicate a significant positive effect of liberalization on growth, confirming the predictions of economic theory. 相似文献
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118.
This paper analyzes the effects of pension funding for a small open economy in which wages are subject to bargaining. Using an overlapping-generations framework, we show that a reform away from a Pay-As-You-Go towards a funded pension system will be Pareto improving only if the reform results in a reduction in the steady-state unemployment rate. However, the reduction in the unemployment rate is by no means warranted: although for pension systems which involve a limited amount of intra-generational redistribution this is likely, for systems displaying a high degree of intra-generational redistribution the unemployment rate may well rise thus preventing the realization of welfare gains. 相似文献
119.
This article introduces an integrative framework of corporate social responsibility (CSR) design and implementation. A review of CSR literature – in particular with regard to design and implementation models – provides the background to develop a multiple case study. The resulting integrative framework, based on this multiple case study and Lewin’s change model, highlights four stages that span nine steps of the CSR design and implementation process. Finally, the study identifies critical success factors for the CSR process. 相似文献
120.
This article introduces an integrative framework of corporate social responsibility (CSR) design and implementation. A review
of CSR literature – in particular with regard to design and implementation models – provides the background to develop a multiple
case study. The resulting integrative framework, based on this multiple case study and Lewin’s change model, highlights four
stages that span nine steps of the CSR design and implementation process. Finally, the study identifies critical success factors
for the CSR process. 相似文献