The future of the uplands

Upland areas provide UK society with many important functions, goods and services, but have experienced a number of disturbing trends and face an uncertain future. This paper outlines historic, current and future drivers of environmental, economic, socio-cultural and policy change in UK uplands, and assesses how these have affected or are likely to affect ways in which land is used and the provision of ecosystem services. Information is synthesised into scenarios summarising a range of possible futures anticipated for UK uplands to 2060 and beyond. Finally, innovations in science, technology, governance and policy are evaluated that could enable uplands to continue providing key ecosystem services under a range of scenarios. The paper concludes that many upland areas will need to be prepared for significant reductions in grazing and prescribed burning. Conversely, other areas could experience agricultural intensification, for example significant increases in grazing or an expansion of arable or bioenergy crops into upland valleys, due to anticipated increases in global demand for food and energy. These scenarios will take place in the context of climate change. Many may take place together and may interact with each other, with complex and unpredictable implications for the upland environment, economy and society. In this context, a number of advances are needed in science, technology and policy to maintain viable upland communities and the future provision of ecosystem services. These may include funding for ecological and hydrological restoration via carbon offsetting or other means. It may also involve advances in ecosystem service modelling, mapping and valuation, which through stakeholder participation could facilitate more integrated rural planning. New forms of environmental governance need to be explored that can empower those interested in developing upland economies to maintain thriving upland communities, while managing the ecosystem services they provide as efficiently as possible.     

顺流而动并非上策

正在市场环境瞬息万变的今天,为改变而改变一定是最优选择么?怎样调整才能既保留公司核心竞争力,又开拓新的领域?商海行舟,不进则退。不变革便衰败,只有挣脱束缚自己的枷锁才能更好地前行。当今世界日新月异,组织必须与时俱进以保证利润和市场份额的观念已深入人心,并被奉为金句。从百事达(Blockbuster)到柯达,从纸质报业到投币电话制造商,更给了我们"不变则死"的惨痛教训。各行各业也都有公司为自己的因循守旧埋了单。     

Forecasting UK house prices: A time varying coefficient approach

Previous studies of UK house prices, developed from the demand and supply ofhousing or from the asset market approach have been poor in terms of robustness and ex-post forecasting ability. The UK housing market has suffered a number of structural changes, particularly since the early 1980s with substantial house price increases, financial market deregulation and the removal of mortgage market constraints through competition. Consequently, models which assume that the underlying data-generating process is stable and apply constant parameter techniques tend to suffer in terms of parameter instability. This article uses the Time Varying Coefficient (TVC) methodology where the underlying data-generating process in the UK housing market is treated as unstable. The estimation results of the TVC regression of UK house prices is compared with those obtained from three alternative constant parameter regressions. Comparisons of forecasting performance suggest the TVC regression out-performs forecasts from an Error Correction Mechanism (ECM), Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and an Autoregressive Time Series regression.     

Niche Entry as a Route to Mainstream Innovation: Learning from the Phosphoric Acid Fuel Cell in Stationary Power

The paper charts the efforts to establish a successful niche position for the phosphoric acid fuel cell (PAFC) in stationary power generation, as a precursor to wider technological system and regime change. Market entry depends on matching price/performance characteristics to a niche, and improving performance through increasing returns, the most important and immediate of which are ‘learning effects’. The paper identifies five types of learning effect: (i) migrating the technology to other niches and into the mainstream; (ii) opening the way for other technologies that may have greater scope for migration; (iii) transferring learning within the pioneering company to other technologies or products; (iv) transferring experience to others in the industry; and (v) enabling users to learn. Although PAFC may be perceived as a failure in some respects, a wider perspective suggests it has made a positive and useful contribution to learning.     

Politics, Processes and the Future of Australian Accounting Standards

The perspective of public interest and interest group theories of regulation is adopted to consider the future of Australian accounting standards following major reforms proposed by the Australian Commonwealth government as part of its 1997 Corporate Law Economic Reform Program (CLERP). Interest groups in the Australian environment are identified. Their lobbying had influenced the initial proposals; and their reactions when the CLERP proposals were published resulted in substantial modifications to the CLERP proposals, which had initially recommendedthat International Accounting Standards (IASs) be adopted as national standards from 1 January 1999.
The role of accounting standards and the structure of standard setting are explored. The political nature of standard setting is illustrated through a review of the CLERP proposals, submissions of various interest groups and the government's responses to them. The central arguments are that key assumptions underlying the CLERP proposals are flawed, and that the CLERP proposals could not achieve the outcomes desired of them.
It seems inevitable, however, that international standards eventually will supplant domestic standards. In the longer term, Australian standard setters seem destined to have a diminished role in the international standard setting arena.     

PRODUCT AND LABOUR MARKETS IN WAGE DETERMINATION: SOME AUSTRALIAN EVIDENCE

The study is concerned with the extent to which workplace wage drift is influenced by establishment-specific or occupation-specific factors. It demonstrates, by analysis of variance of pay data from a survey of 44 occupations in 198 workplaces, that the sources of variation are predominantly establishment-specific. There is evidence of a link between the amount of discretion an employer exercises in the labour market and the degree of concentration in his product market. It is argued that discussions of pay determination have been unduly preoccupied with labour market processes and have neglected the variation in employer behaviour arising from differences in product market.     

Resolving the exposure puzzle: The many facets of exchange rate exposure

Theory predicts sizeable exchange rate (FX) exposure for many firms. However, empirical research has not documented such exposures. To examine this discrepancy, we extend prior theoretical results to model a global firm's FX exposure and show empirically that firms pass through part of currency changes to customers and utilize both operational and financial hedges. For a typical sample firm, pass-through and operational hedging each reduce exposure by 10–15%. Financial hedging with foreign debt, and to a lesser extent FX derivatives, decreases exposure by about 40%. The combination of these factors reduces FX exposures to observed levels.