Testing the permanent income hypothesis using a general rational lag formulation

This paper estimates a permanent income model of consumption with a constrained moving average error process. Our results do not support the permanent income theory.     

Short-run fluctuations in fertility and mortality in pre-industrial Sweden

This paper describes and interprets annual Swedish data from 1750 to 1869 on weather, harvests, real wages, birth rates, and death rates using vector autogression. Impulses due to unexplained increases in wealth, whether this occurred through increased real wages, improved agricultural yields, or warmer winters, led in the short run to increased fertility and decreased infant and non-infant mortality, and hence to increased rates of population growth. Unexplained or unanticipated fluctuations in infant mortality led to replacement cycles in fertility within one to three years, although only a negligible cumulative effect on fertility persisted after five to ten years. Fluctuations in deaths among persons older than one year evoked a fertility response several years later, but this replacement response persisted after more than a decade. Although vector autoregression is not designed to account for long-term trends and their consequences, the interrelationships found here among exogenous weather shocks and fluctuations in economic conditions and demographic rates provide support for the homeostatic mechanisms hypothesized by classical economists and discussed by Malthus. The methodology of vector autoregression appears useful for studying historical series on climatic, economic and demographic variables where we do not yet have a sufficient theoretical foundation for specifying and estimating structural models.     

Associations between social responsibility disclosure and characteristics of companies

Surveys have shown a trend of increased corporate disclosure of social responsibility information. This paper suggests some reasons why companies provide social responsibility information and examines the effects of four variables (size, systematic risk, social constraints and management decision horizon) on the social responsibility disclosure practices of Australian companies.     

GOAL PROGRAMMING AND MULTIPLE CRITERIA DECISION-MAKING IN FARM PLANNING: AN EXPOSITORY ANALYSIS

Several paradigms can be used to analyse multiple-criteria decision-making problems. Of these goal programming is probably the most widely used one, at least in management science. Goal programming seems to offer considerable potential for application to multiple-criteria problems in farm planning. However, its applications in agricultural economics have been few and far between. Even these attempts seem to suffer from some serious misconceptions. In this paper an effort is made to explain the structure of a goal programming model by deriving it from the familiar paradigm of linear programming. This is done to put the potential usefulness of goal programming and its relationship to linear programming in perspective, and to encourage further applications to multiple-criteria decision-making in farm planning.     

Institutions and Individuals at the Turn-of-the-Year

This article evaluates the tax-loss-selling hypothesis against the window-dressing hypothesis as explanations for turn-of-the-year anomalies. We examine differences between securities dominated by individual investors versus those dominated by institutional investors and find that the effect is more pervasive in the former. Controlling for capitalization, we find that in early January (late December), stocks with greater individual investor interest outperform (underperform) stocks with greater institutional investor interest. These results hold for both stocks that previously appreciated in value and stocks that previously depreciated in value. The results are most consistent with the tax-loss-selling hypothesis as an explanation for the turn-of-the-year effect.     

The Hungarian alternative to soviet-type planning

The basic features of the post-1968 Hungarian economic system are compared with the traditional Soviet model. In practice the New Economic Mechanism has differed both from the model outlined in reform proposals and from the Soviet model as well. These latter differences include changes in planning behavior, instruments used to control resource allocation, and the evaluation of enterprises. The social constraints to system changes as revealed by the Hungarian experience are analyzed, and recent developments in the reform of the Hungarian economic system are evaluated.     

Redefining the issues of risk and public acceptance: The social viability of technology

A conceptual framework is proposed within which the notion of risk as normally used in risk assessment (RA) could be enlarged in line with the real substance of social issues of technology policy, to help avoid RA's threatened irrelevance to social decisionmaking. It is argued that the frequent organizational incoherence and thus the unviability of modern technology arises from ‘social alienation’ between the innovation-commitment phase and the implementation of the technology in society. The roles of technical elites and of particular concepts of technology in this alienation are emphasized.     

Debt finance and the cost of management ownership: Some elementary results

Increased debt reduces a company's equity base, which reduces the dollar investment a manager must make to hold a given proportion of stock. Therefore, it is often argued, managers' effort incentives are improved by high leverage. This paper shows that while risky debt reduces the cost of providing managers with substantial equity ownership, the cheaper equity captures less of the fruits of the manager's effort. Managers' effort incentives are improved by high debt levels only under quite restrictive conditions. These conditions are more plausible when agency problems are due to a managerial propensity to expand size by investing in negative net present value projects. The results also imply that when debt is increased to reduce the agency costs of free cash flow, the accompanying covenants should allow for substantial cash distributions to shareholders even before bondholder claims are satisfied.