INVARIANCE OF THE UNORDERED BEST ESTIMATOR IN THE T,–CLASS FOR MIDZUNO'S AND FOR IKEDA–SEN'S SAMPLING PROCEDURES

MIDZUNO'S sampling procedure is considered where the first (n – 1) draws are carried out with simple random sampling without replacement and the nth draw with varying probabilities. It is shown that for this scheme, the best estimator in the HORVITZ–THOMPSON (1952) T_t–class of linear estimators exists and rejects the last draw. When MURTHY'S technique of unordering of an ordered estimator is employed, the rejected draw is restored and the unordered estimator is obtained. Surprisingly, this unordered estimator is the same as the unordered best estimator in the T₁–class, derived for IKEDA–SEN'S sampling procedure.     

全球股市低迷 亚洲首当其冲

一年前，当信贷危机在美国和欧洲刚刚崭露头角时，许多投资者都将亚洲股票视为了天堂。时至今日，全球股市经历了6个多月的下跌，而亚洲市场的跌幅位居前列。     

Spin‐offs: Tackling the Conglomerate Discount

Spin‐offs and other restructuring actions have risen sharply in 2011, driven by the need to streamline business models and increase corporate values. These transactions can be an effective tool for addressing the conglomerate valuation discount that has been a pervasive phenomenon over the past decade, affecting conglomerates in most regions across the world. In particular, North American and Western European conglomerates trade at valuation multiples that are roughly 10% lower than those of their pure‐play peers. A conglomerate discount also prevails in some of the emerging markets, including CEEMEA and Asia. Nevertheless, in some regions, notably Japan and Latin America, conglomerates typically trade at a premium. Although the average conglomerate discount narrowed during the financial crisis due to the perceived benefits of diversification during downturns, almost half of the conglomerates globally trade at a discount, and almost a third of all conglomerates have persistently traded at a discount during the past five years. For such companies, fixing the discount requires a simplification of the business model. The authors show that recent announcements of spin‐offs have led to significant share price outperformance by the parent company in both the short and the longterm, highlighting their effectiveness as a tool to enhance valuation. Spin‐offs can be particularly attractive for those conglomerates that operate unrelated business segments since these firms trade at a sharper discount than diversified firms operating in related businesses. The authors discuss how management should think about the financial implications of spin‐offs, including capital structure considerations, dividend policy, and turnover in the shareholder base.     

Brain drain or brain bank? The impact of skilled emigration on poor-country innovation

The development prospects of a poor country or region depend in part on its capacity for innovation. In turn, the productivity of its innovators, whom are often concentrated around urban centers, depends on their access to technological knowledge. The emigration of highly skilled individuals weakens local knowledge networks (brain drain) but may also help remaining innovators access valuable knowledge accumulated abroad (brain bank). We develop a model in which the size of the optimal innovator Diaspora depends on the competing strengths of co-location and Diaspora effects for accessing knowledge. Then, using patent citation data associated with inventions from India, we estimate the key co-location and Diaspora parameters. The net effect of innovator emigration is to harm domestic knowledge access, on average. However, knowledge access conferred by the Diaspora is particularly valuable in the production of India’s most important inventions as measured by citations received. Thus, our findings imply that the optimal emigration level may depend, at least partly, on the relative value resulting from the most cited compared to average inventions.     

Do Taxes Matter for Foreign Direct Investment?

The tax sensitivity of foreign direct investment (FDI) has importantpolicy implications. If FDI is not responsive to taxation, thenit may be an appropriate target for taxation by the host country.This question is examined for Mexico by estimating the responseof FDI from retained earnings and transfers from abroad to thetax regimes in Mexico and the home country, the credit statusof multinationals, country risk factors, and regulatory andtrade regimes in Mexico. FDI in Mexico is found to be sensitiveto the tax regimes in Mexico and the United States, the creditstatus of multinationals, country credit ratings, and the regulatoryenvironment. Thus Mexico's current policies to dismantle regulationsand employ a tax system competitive with the United States areexpected to have salutory effects on FDI in Mexico.     

FIRM PERFORMANCE AND SECURITY TYPE IN SEASONED OFFERINGS: AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF ALTERNATIVE SIGNALING MODELS

In this paper we examine the long-term performance of publicly traded firms that issue straight debt, convertible debt, or common stock. Declines in firm performance following issuance are consistent with declines in firm value at announcement and issuance, and suggest that convertible debt and common stock are substantially equivalent. This study is consistent with the pecking-order and Miller-Rock models, but inconsistent with the leverage-signaling model. Despite a significant decline following issuance, firms issuing common stock or convertible debt perform better, on average, than the industry before, at, and after issuance. This is consistent with younger, riskier, higher-growth firms being the predominant issuers of common stock and convertible debt.     

Rational expectations macro models with possible steady-state inflation andunemployment

Consider an economy exhibiting the conventional IS-LM relationships, Phillips curve type price adjustment equations, and rational inflationary expectations. We demonstrate that starting from the disequilibrium situation of either the Keynesian unemployment or the demand inflation type in which money is nonneutral, the economy converges to an equilibrium situation in which all markets clear. On the other hand, starting from the disequilibrium situation of the classical unemployment type in which money is nonneutral, the economy converges to a state of rest in which the goods and the labor markets remain out of equilibrium. However, money is neutral at this state of rest.     

On the relationship between concentration of prospect theory/mental accounting investors,cointegration, and momentum

We examine the role of cointegration between stock prices and their estimated fundamental values in return momentum. We find that the positive relationship between capital gains overhang and future stock returns in Grinblatt and Han (2005) is significantly stronger among the “non-cointegrated” group of stocks as compared with the “cointegrated” group of stocks. Further, for the cointegrated stocks, the slower the speed of adjustment to the cointegrating equilibrium, the greater (smaller) is the future return of stocks with unrealized capital gains (losses). These findings are robust to various firm characteristics including firm size, book-to-market ratio, past returns, idiosyncratic volatility, dispersion in analysts’ earnings forecasts, turnover, individual investor ownership, and industry returns.