Comparative Assessment of Mortality Rate of the Population in Russian and Foreign Megacities

The article presents the results of a comparative analysis of mortality trends in two Russian capitals and two cities with population over one million, Krasnoyarsk and Rostov-on-Don, in comparison with foreign megacities (Berlin, Hong Kong, London, Los Angeles, New York, Paris, Singapore, Tokyo). From 1990 to 2015, in the Russian “model cities” the standardized mortality rates (SMR) for all causes on average decreased by almost a third: most in Moscow (44% for men and 42% for women) and less for Krasnoyarsk (22% for both men and women). An assessment of the statistical reliability of the decrease in SMR on the basis of long time series showed the absence of a positive dynamic of mortality from diseases of the digestive organs, mainly cirrhosis, which confirms the presence of the alcoholic component. Despite the sufficiently steady decline in mortality in the early 2000s, its level in Russian cities continues to significantly exceed the mortality rate in foreign megacities.     

Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates

Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Inter-War Exchange Rates. — This paper tests weekly inter-war floating exchange rate data for the pound-dollar, pound-franc and pound-reichsmark for non-linearity. Initial tests reveal strong evidence of generic non-linearity in these series and indicate neglected non-linear structure in the residuals of linear representations. Attempts to model this structure using GARCH residual processes have only been partially successful. Thus, two parametric models of such non-linearity were estimated. Comparing the forecasts from these models shows the mean square forecast errors of linear-GARCH and bilinear models to be lower than those from linear forecasts for all series, and that SETAR model forecasts outperform all other models for the pound-dollar.     

Illustrating the importance of Austrian business cycle theory: A reply to Murphy,Barnett, and Block; A call for quantitative study

Murphy et al. (2009) criticize Young’s (2005) test of Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT) using US industry-level quarterly job reallocation data and the federal funds rate as a monetary policy indicator. I argue that not only are Murphy et al.’s specific criticisms misguided; more importantly, they all but completely rule out the type of empirical study that Young (2005) advocates: specifically, one that (1) is quantitative and distinguishes between statistical and economic significance and (2) attempts to exploit a hypothesis that is both a prediction of ABCT and not a prediction of competing monetary theories of the cycle. I argue that empirical studies embodying (1) and (2) are critical to ABCT as a research program. Furthermore, I review the existing econometric studies of ABCT from the last 10 years and conclude that there is much room for improvement along these lines.     

TOP MANAGEMENT TEAM STRATEGIC CONSENSUS,DEMOGRAPHIC HOMOGENEITY AND FIRM PERFORMANCE: A REPORT OF RESOUNDING NONFINDINGS

In this study, we hypothesized that relationships among top managers' goals consensus, means consensus, demographic homogeneity and firm performance would be positive and stronger in a stable industry environment than in a dynamic one. Utilizing a more rigorous methodology, the significant findings of earlier studies could not be replicated. Although the questions remain interesting and important ones, we believe pursuing this line of inquiry further will yield results inconsistent at best and fruitless at worst. Therefore, we urge future researchers to cautiously tread the perilous methodologic minefield that led to our nonfindings.     

A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward foreign investment: the Spanish case

Historically, outward foreign direct investment has been contemplated as an alternative way of firms' internationalization. In this line, a relational substitution between exports and foreign direct investment would be expected. However, this seems to contrast with recent developments in the ‘new trade theory’ which show that the volume of trade and the emergence of multinational firms may be positively related one to the other. This paper investigates if some empirical evidence exists either supporting a substitution or a complementary relationship between both forms of internationalization. With this aim, an aggregate time series approach was adopted using quarterly aggregate data (seasonal adjusted) from the Spanish economy covering the period 1970.I–1992.III. A vector autoregressive model was employed for both multivariate cointegration analysis and Granger temporal causality testing. The strength and direction of causal relationships are shown through the dynamic variance decomposition and the impulse response technique. Once controlling for relative market size and prices, the results provide evidence of a positive long-term Granger causality going from foreign direct investment to exports, although not in the opposite direction.     

Spillover Effects of Grocery Bag Legislation: Evidence of Bag Bans and Bag Fees

Environmental and Resource Economics - We investigate the unintended consequences of carryout grocery bag (CGB) regulations by looking at the impact on sales of alternative plastic bag products. We...     

你的国家可能是下一个希腊

孕育了民主的古希腊或许让人欣然向往,但现在希腊的财政困境则让人敬而远之。目前,资本市场要希腊为其预算问题付出沉重代价。     

LABOR TURNOVER IN THE USA AND JAPAN: A TALE OF TWO COUNTRIES

Abstract. The labor turnover rate in Japan is less than half the US level. A small-scale survey of companies that operate in both Japan and the USA was conducted to examine reasons for the discrepancy. The main findings are that Japanese human resource policies, including steep seniority-earnings profiles, extensive fringe benefits, participatory management, and a reluctance to recruit experienced workers from other firms, contribute to the lower Japanese turnover rate. Additionally, workers of Japanese descent in the USA have a somewhat lower labor turnover rate than other Americans, suggesting some role for cultural differences.