发言摘登

这次会议讨论的是一个很重要的题目──国企转型与企业文化构建。我们现在对企业文化的认识,如果同10年前相比,可以说是跨越了一个世纪。当时感觉企业文化是个新鲜东西,并不知道它有多大用途,好像很时髦,多数人对它的认识还是狭窄的、浮面的。10年后的今天,经过理论界的探索研究,特别是经过企业界的创新实践,使得我们对企业文化的认识有了很大的发展。中外企业文化杂志社利用庆祝创刊10周年的机会,组织大家共同研讨国企转型与企业文化构建,这个题目选得非常好。当前,企业文化在中国的需求,很重要的一点就是与国企转型联系在了一起。企业文化…     

Switching to the policy mode: Incentives by the OECD jobs study to change our mindset

I would like to thank Simon Kuipers and Joan Muysken for their critical comments on an earlier draft of the article.     

How to predict transfer of training? Investigating the application of the unified model of task-specific motivation

Transfer motivation is an important factor influencing transfer of training. However, earlier research often did not investigate transfer motivation as a multidimensional construct. The unified model of task-specific motivation (UMTM) takes into account that (transfer) motivation is multidimensional by including both affective and cognitive motivational components and their antecedents. Prior research has provided evidence that the UMTM can predict self-reported transfer of training, but is unclear whether it also can predict transfer reported by expert external raters. Moreover, it is unclear whether controlling for prior knowledge matters for the relationship between transfer motivation and transfer of training. This study improves on existing research by accounting for both of these gaps in the literature. Data were collected among 299 participants who filled in a questionnaire about the UMTM components directly after attending a writing training. They also handed in written documents before, and 6 weeks after the training, which were rated on transfer by trainers. Outcomes showed that components of the UMTM positively predict externally reported transfer when prior knowledge was controlled for. The outcomes imply that the UMTM has predictive value for transfer of training and points out which factors influence whether transfer does or does not occur.     

Testing for non-linear dependence in inter-war exchange rates

Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Inter-War Exchange Rates. — This paper tests weekly inter-war floating exchange rate data for the pound-dollar, pound-franc and pound-reichsmark for non-linearity. Initial tests reveal strong evidence of generic non-linearity in these series and indicate neglected non-linear structure in the residuals of linear representations. Attempts to model this structure using GARCH residual processes have only been partially successful. Thus, two parametric models of such non-linearity were estimated. Comparing the forecasts from these models shows the mean square forecast errors of linear-GARCH and bilinear models to be lower than those from linear forecasts for all series, and that SETAR model forecasts outperform all other models for the pound-dollar.     

Wealth, Enterprise and Credit Policy

Empirical evidence suggests that capital-market constraints prevent low-wealth individuals from setting up in business. This paper shows this finding to be consistent with socially excessive lending and an interest-rate tax being welfare-improving. One feature of the model, banks' inability to identify entrepreneurial quality, leads to excessive bank lending and investment in low-return projects. The reduction in the probability of bankruptcy lowers the cost of borrowing and eliminates deadweight costs and hence promotes entry. If the incentive effects are sufficiently large, wealth and the volume of entrepreneurial activity move together. A key result of the paper is to show that a market equilibrium in which there is a positive relationship between entry and the level of wealth is consistent with either subsidies to inactivity or taxes on interest raising welfare.     

Long memory in volatilities of German stock returns

We show that there is strong evidence of long-range dependence in the volatilities of several German stock returns. This will be done by applying a method using the difference of the classical log-periodogram regression estimator for the memory parameter and of the tapered periodogram based estimator. Both estimators give similar values for the memory parameter for each series and this indicates long memory. To support our findings we apply also a methodology using the sample variance and a wavelet based estimator to the data. Also these two methods show clear evidence of long-range dependence in the volatilities of German stock returns.First version received: December 2001/Final version received: March 2003The computational assistance of Eleni Mitropoulou and Björn Stollenwerck as well as the helpful comments of two unknown referees are gratefully acknowledged. Research supported by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft under SFB 475. Stock returns were obtained from Deutsche Finanzdatenbank (DFDB), Karlsruhe.     

The type-agent core for exchange economies with asymmetric information

The type-agent core is a new solution concept for exchange economies with asymmetric information. It coincides with the set of subgame-perfect equilibrium outcomes of a simple competitive screening game. Uninformed intermediaries help the agents to cooperate in an attempt to make some profit. The paper extends the work of Perez-Castrillo [Cooperative outcomes through non-cooperative games, Games Econ. Behav. 7 (1994) 428-440] to exchange economies with non-transferable utility and asymmetric information. The type-agent core is a subset of Wilson's coarse core [Wilson, Information, efficiency, and the core of an economy, Econometrica 46 (1978) 807-816]. It is never empty, even though it may be a strict subset of Wilson's fine core. In addition, it converges towards the set of constrained market equilibria as the economy is replicated.