Riding the Ever-Rolling Stream: Time and the Ontology of Violent Conflict

In this paper, we examine the ways in which the passage of time is dealt with in econometric studies of violent conflict and civil war with empirical attention to the dynamics of ethnic conflict. We argue that the mainstream approach to econometric studies of civil war is based on a time-invariant ontology and that this is not an appropriate or adequate way of capturing the causal patterns of violent conflict. Based analysis of replication datasets using structural break analysis and rolling windows, we show how careful attention to the passage of time reveals important macro-historical changes in the coefficients on ethnic diversity in explaining conflict incidence. We conclude that econometric studies of civil war need to pay more careful attention to the limitations on the generalizations that they draw through attention to the passage of time and better iteration with qualitative and historical studies.     

Time-Varying Response of Monetary Policy to Macroeconomic Conditions

We reject the hypothesis that the Federal Reserve's response to the macroeconomy over the period of 1953-1994 can be accurately represented with a fixed-parameter discrete choice model. Thus, we model the Fed's time-varying response with a nonlinear Kalman filter. The estimated time paths of the reaction function coefficients suggest that the Fed has responded countercyclically to movements in the price level except for the middle 1970s when it accommodated inflation. The Fed has generally responded countercyclically to unemployment and output during recessions. However, it has not maintained a countercyclical policy during nonrecessionary times until the 1980s.     

Race,revenues, and college basketball

Customer discrimination may result in racial differences in the marginal revenue products generated by workers. College basketball data allow for direct comparisons of the racial differences in the marginal revenues generated by players. This article compares the revenue generating potential of the top black and white college basketball players. A highly skilled white college player generates over $100,000 in per game revenues as compared to around $30,000 for a black player of equal talent, providing a strong incentive for colleges to discriminate against recruiting black student-athletes.     

Custom-built

Mass customization has rapidly moved from an abstract theory to a practical source of competitive advantage. Fabrizio Salvador has been studying the companies that have bolstered their business by tapping into the idiosyncratic needs of customers. Tom Brown reports on his latest thinking.     

The uses of history in policy analysis and strategic planning

History is a useful, if not necessary, adjunct to the policy analysis process. Although the policy options are different at various periods in history, we can learn from the examples of the past. The Japanese experience or coordination between government and the universities is examined along with the American experience since World War II.