Price discovery in the presence of boundedly rational agents

In this paper we propose a sequential model of security trading which, compared to existing models, is extended along the notions of (Simon, H.A., A behavioral model of rational choice. Quart. J. Econ., 1955 Simon, HA. 1955. A behavioral model of rational choice. Quart. J. Econ., 64: 99–118.  [Google Scholar], 64, 99–118; Rubinstein, A., Modeling Bounded Rationality, Zeuthen Lecture Book Series, 1998 (MIT Press: Cambridge, MA), and Odean, T., Do investors trade too much? Am. Econ. Rev., 1999, 89(5), 1279–1298) by adding boundedly rational traders. Our results indicate that both momentum and mean-reversion in asset prices can be attributed to the presence of agents who are subject to systematic errors in the process of forecasting the liquidation value of a risky security. The length of the momentum period is inversely related to both the amount of information-based trading in the market and the rate at which asset specific information is learned by boundedly rational agents. Furthermore, the model allows explicitly to establish a link between the component of the bid–ask spread that can be explained by bounded rationality and both momentum and reversal.     

Marginal consistent dependence modelling using weak subordination for Brownian motions

We present an approach for modelling dependencies in exponential Lévy market models with arbitrary margins originated from time changed Brownian motions. Using weak subordination of Buchmann et al. [Bernoulli, 2017], we face a new layer of dependencies, superior to traditional approaches based on pathwise subordination, since weakly subordinated processes are not required to have independent components considering multivariate stochastic time changes. We apply a subordinator being able to incorporate any joint or idiosyncratic information arrivals. We emphasize multivariate variance gamma and normal inverse Gaussian processes and state explicit formulae for the Lévy characteristics. Using maximum likelihood, we estimate multivariate variance gamma models on various market data and show that these models are highly preferable to traditional approaches. Consistent values of basket-options under given marginal pricing models are achieved using the Esscher transform, generating a non-flat implied correlation surface.     

EU data protection reform: Opportunities and concerns

Last year, the European Commission proposed a comprehensive reform of the EU’s data protection rules. The proposed regulation has been surrounded by fi erce controversy and has been the subject of frenzied lobbying by global corporations, industry groups, research centres and privacy campaigners on both sides of the Atlantic. This Forum applies cool economic reasoning to this heated issue. What are the potential economic benefi ts of EU harmonisation? Will the proposed regulation negatively impact the competitiveness and innovation of European fi rms in the global marketplace? Or could it jeopardise attempts to protect privacy as a fundamental right in civil societies?     

Optimal Liquidity Provision Through a Demand Deposit Scheme: The Jacklin Critique Revisited

We derive conditions such that optimal liquidity provisions through a demand deposit scheme can be sustainably implemented in a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium under the assumption that renegade investors have free access to ex post asset markets. As our qualitative main finding we demonstrate that such sustainability is more likely for ‘poor’ than for ‘rich’ scheme participants in terms of future income. By establishing sustainability for low future income populations, our formal analysis therefore offers an important qualification of Jacklin's (1987) influential claim that an optimal demand deposit scheme is not sustainable whenever there exists the possibility of an ex post asset market.     

The wealth of nature: economics as if survival mattered

Livestock play a key role in the lives of poor, rural people in developing countries, providing a major proportion of their cash income, capital assets, draught power, fuel and fertilizer. Rapid growth in demand for meat and dairy products in Asia presents both opportunities and challenges for livestock development and poverty alleviation. This paper explores the potential of livestock intensification to benefit the livelihoods of upland households and meet market demand in the Lao Peoples' Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), a South East Asian country undergoing significant economic change.

A review of the livestock sector in Asia shows increasing demand for live animals and meat in neighbouring Vietnam, Thailand and China. Lao PDR is well positioned to capitalize on the growing Asian livestock sector, however the extent livestock production in Lao PDR can reduce poverty, meet growing domestic meat demand and lift livestock exports is problematic. Findings from research in two upland northern provinces demonstrate how the introduction of forages for livestock has revolutionized the lives of some farmers and villages, but concludes that strategies are still needed to engage poorer households. The impacts of changing domestic and export markets are less certain, and are discussed within the context of environmental and public health, cultural traditions, economic development and sustainable livelihoods.