Cereal price shocks and volatility in sub‐Saharan Africa: what really matters for farmers’ welfare?

The lack of information as well as some misperceptions about the distinction between the welfare consequences of higher versus more volatile cereal prices has limited the effectiveness of policy interventions during the recent food crises in many developing countries. This article proposes an integrated empirical strategy to investigate and compare the different effects of these two phenomena and tests it using nationally representative household survey data from four sub‐Saharan countries. Results show that the negative impacts of a cereal price increase substantially outweigh the effects of price volatility on household welfare across the entire income distribution. The amplitude and the distribution of those effects depend heavily on specific factors, such as: the weight of food consumption over total expenditure; the budget share devoted to cereals; the substitution effect among food groups; and the relative number of net sellers versus net buyers accessing the market. We also show that volatility mainly harms the poorest quintile of the population.     

Spatial price premium transmission for Meat Standards Australia‐graded cattle: the vulnerability of price premiums to outside shocks

Studies of market integration show that price changes are transmitted spatially through arbitrage. Transmission across differentiated agricultural products is important to investigate, but it has not been explored given its complexities for assessment. Using data from Australian cattle markets, we examine the dynamics of Meat Standards Australia price premium transmission between states. An impulse response function analysis using Bayesian vector autoregression with sign restriction identification shows that shocks to prices and price premiums are partially transmitted contemporaneously between markets and it takes several weeks to complete transmission. In addition, we find an asymmetry of price and price premium shocks originating in Southern Queensland that have an inverse immediate impact in New South Wales, and take months to transmit the usual price response. This outcome may be explained by differences in cattle availability in each state, which can be related to forage availability due to weather conditions. Based on these results, producers can forecast fluctuations on price premiums and adjust their cattle supply accordingly.     

Environmental Injustice in Argentina: Struggles against Genetically Modified Soy

This paper explores the unequal distribution of the environmental and social costs and benefits of the genetically modified (GM) soy model in Argentina and its impact on grievance formation and the emergence of contestation. In the 1990s, Argentina transitioned into a neoliberal agro‐industrial model based on producing GM soy for export. Though celebrated as a success, the expansion of GM soy monocultures has brought widespread socio‐ecological disruption. Various social actors have started to mobilize against the resulting environmental injustice. I focus on the peasant–indigenous movement in the north of the country, which is struggling for land rights, and the movements against agrochemical spraying in the central Pampas region. These groups, which are relatively powerless to control resources where they live, and that experience little or no benefit from GM soy production, nevertheless bear most of its social and ecological costs. These struggles link environmental and social well‐being, becoming struggles for ecological sustainability as well as social justice and equity.     

Extension of the Wald statistic to models with dependent observations

A generalization of the Wald statistic for testing composite hypotheses is suggested for dependent data from exponential models which include Lévy processes and diffusion fields. The generalized statistic is proved to be asymptotically chi-squared distributed under regular composite hypotheses. It is simpler and more easily available than the generalized likelihood ratio statistic. Simulations in an example where the latter statistic is available show that the generalized Wald test achieves higher average power than the generalized likelihood ratio test. Received: February 29, 2000     

Structural breaks in volatility: Evidence for the OECD and non-OECD real exchange rates

This paper attempts to determine whether or not nominal exchange rate regimes affect the volatility of bilateral and effective real exchange rates. To that end, we examine the real exchange rate behaviour for a set of OECD and non-OECD countries during the 1960–2006 period, therefore covering both the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates and the adoption of generalised floating exchange rates from 1973. We make use of an econometric methodology based on the Hansen's (Hansen, B.E., 1997. Approximate asymptotic P values for structural-change tests. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 15 (1), 60–67) approximation to the p-values of the supreme, exponential and average statistics developed by Andrews (Andrews, D., 1993. Test for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. Econometrica 61 (4), 821–856) and Andrews and Ploberger (Andrews, D., Ploberger, W., 1994. Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative. Econometrica 62 (6), 1383–1414). This methodology allows us to obtain a profile of p-values and to delimit periods of stability and instability in the variance of real exchange rates. Results suggest that there is clear evidence in favour of the non-neutrality of nominal exchange rate regime regarding real exchange rate volatility for developed countries, but not in the case of developing or emerging countries.     

Platform capitalism and neo-normative control: “Autonomy” as a digital platform control strategy in neoliberal Chile

A key element of the platform business model is concentrating great organisational power over the work process while simultaneously allowing workers certain degrees of autonomy and encouraging them to see themselves as self-employed. This study applied the neo-normative control concept to analyse the mechanisms platforms use to promote freedom of choice and self-regulation values, which are formed extra-organisationally in deeply neoliberal societies such as Chile. The Uber ride-hailing and Pedidos Ya home delivery platforms in Chile were examined using a labour process theory framework based on an ethnographic design. The results show the specific ways in which these platforms deploy forms of neo-normative control, how this deployment is anchored in the labour context of neoliberal Chilean society, and how workers re-signify, stress, or seek to subvert this control strategy. The findings' theoretical and empirical implications are discussed.     

Robust prediction of domain compositions from uncertain data using isometric logratio transformations in a penalized multivariate Fay–Herriot model

Assessing regional population compositions is an important task in many research fields. Small area estimation with generalized linear mixed models marks a powerful tool for this purpose. However, the method has limitations in practice. When the data are subject to measurement errors, small area models produce inefficient or biased results since they cannot account for data uncertainty. This is particularly problematic for composition prediction, since generalized linear mixed models often rely on approximate likelihood inference. Obtained predictions are not reliable. We propose a robust multivariate Fay–Herriot model to solve these issues. It combines compositional data analysis with robust optimization theory. The nonlinear estimation of compositions is restated as a linear problem through isometric logratio transformations. Robust model parameter estimation is performed via penalized maximum likelihood. A robust best predictor is derived. Simulations are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach. An application to alcohol consumption in Germany is provided.     

M. Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge (eds.): Review of A decade after the global recession: lessons and challenges for emerging and developing economies

Business Economics -     

New perspective on customer orientation of service employees: a conceptual framework

Customer orientation of service employees (COSE) refers to the capacity and skills of employees to (1) identify, understand and satisfy their clients’ needs, and (2) act to that end. The COSE model has been used extensively to assess customer orientation of service employees within different settings. However, minimal modifications from the original have been presented so far, and the proposed settings were unrelated to highly relational services such as private banking (PB). PB is defined as the services specifically designed to satisfy the financial needs of high net worth individuals (HNWI); they are usually delivered by only one contact person – the private banker. Thus, PB is based on a personal and long-lasting relationship between the private banker and the client. Drawing on the literature regarding customer orientation and PB, trust, loyalty and word of mouth are identified as the potential consequences of COSE, improving on previous models. These new propositions are accompanied by a conceptual framework of COSE that is able to address the PB particularities by considering some moderating variables that are inherent to the PB service (customer segment and type of banking firm). Further avenues for research are then charted in light of the new conceptual framework developed.