我国房地产市场的差异化调控

如今,房地产市场已是关系到我国民生的首要问题之一,本文分析了我国现行房地产调控政策所存在的问题,并从目前调控中存在的问题入手,对以单一房价控制作为稳定市场的主要手段的合理性提出质疑,并给出了有关差异化调控的观点建议。     

Capital Inflows and House Prices: Aggregate and Regional Evidence from China

Rising house prices in China have been of concern for investors and policymakers. Prices have risen substantially in the last decade, especially in large urban cities, and some economists have expressed concerns about the affordability of residential housing for young adults. This phenomenon becomes a major concern for policymakers, in terms of managing policies to balance the residential needs of individuals and the transition to a market economy. Theoretically, house prices ought to be linked to economic factors such as disposable income, availability of land to build and credit policy. However, it appears that traditional economic theories fail to appropriately explain house prices in China. We provide an explanation from the perspective of capital inflows into China. In terms of per capita remittances, China receives the highest inflow of foreign capital, and this may have a significant impact on risk adjusted returns in the Chinese market. To investigate this relationship, we use the vector error correction model to assess the impact of capital inflows on house prices. We find that capital inflows have a significant positive effect on house prices. The study makes important contributions to understanding the relationship between house prices and foreign remittances after controlling for other economic factors. China is a large economy. Because the impact of economic development in China has not been consistent across the country, we address the regional differences in the house price changes to capital inflows. Using regional data, we show that capital inflows have an asymmetric effect on the housing market across different provinces and cities of China. This has important implications for the development of economic policies in China that aim to provide fair access to residential housing for everyone. These findings are also relevant to investors in the housing market, whether investing for a personal residential home or as part of their diversified investment portfolio. It will also be informative to see how a reversal of capital inflows associated with tighter financing conditions in advanced countries will affect house prices in China.     

财政结构性调整如何影响产业结构？

文章基于产业间关系视角,考察了财政结构性调整对产业结构的影响。产业间财政结构性调整显著带动了产业结构调整,并促使产业结构趋向高度化。其主要机制在于财税资源在产业间的差异性配置,及其向更加依赖外部融资的产业部门倾斜。财政结构性调整的绩效受制于制度和市场化水平的约束而呈现出异质性,表现为：基于所受制度约束的差异,补贴结构性调整对于产业结构的影响显著弱于税收结构性调整;基于市场化水平的差异,财政结构性调整对产业结构调整幅度的影响存在西高东低的地区差异,而对产业结构高度化的影响则主要集中于东部地区。     

基于PPP项目的风险分担机制研究综述

公私合作模式(PPP)是应用于公共基础设施建设的一种融资模式,由于参与者多,风险分担是PPP项目取得成功的关键.目前对PPP项目风险分担机制的研究主要有两种:一是政府与私人投资者双方之间的风险分担机制.二是项目各参与方之间的风险分担机制.重点论述和评价了国内外关于PPP项目风险分担的涵义、风险分担的原则、风险分担条件、风险分担谈判过程、风险分担矩阵和风险分担的相关模型,并对风险分担的研究作了进一步展望.     

制定风景区门票价格数学模型的研究

风景区门票价格的科学制定,是社会关注的焦点之一.通过对风景区的功能和特点,以及旅游市场的分析研究,探讨了制定风景区门票价格应遵循"按质定价"、"保护与适度开发"、"市场供求关系"和"客主权益兼顾"4项基本原则,构成风景区门票价格的基本因素和弹性因素,考核风景区质量特征的有关指标体系;建立了制定风景区门票价格的数学模型;提出了实施方略.     

GSE Activity,FHA Feedback,and Implications for the Efficacy of the Affordable Housing Goals

There is a seeming paradox regarding the “affordable housing goals”: GSE activities in targeted communities have increased under the goals but there has been little measurable improvement in housing market conditions in these communities. This paper seeks to reconcile this paradox by focusing on linkage between GSE purchases and FHA activities. We present a simple theoretical framework suggesting that GSE activities can have a feedback effect on FHA. More aggressive GSE pursuit of targeted borrowers under the affordable housing goals induces potential FHA borrowers with best credit quality to use the conventional market. Changes to the housing market will depend on the FHA response to the loss of its best credits, with many different possible outcomes for credit supply and homeownership, including scenarios in which they remain effectively unchanged. While market-level benefits might not be forthcoming, the shift from FHA to less costly conventional loans is clearly beneficial for affected borrowers. Two-stage least squares estimates of the relationship between GSE and FHA lending after the affordable housing goals were made more binding are found to be consistent with the theoretical predictions.

美国“两房”危机分析及启示

文章分析了“两房”危机的形成过程,以及美国政府应对“两房”危机的救助措施。虽然美国金融海啸对国内上市银行的投资影响不大,但国内银行业对海外投资与交易的风险管理有待加强。面对全球市场动荡,文章从加强监管、完善政策调控、稳定房地产市场发展,以及提高金融机构风险管理能力等方面提出应对之策。     

花都特大桥岩溶发育地区桩基础施工技术研究

岩溶地区桩基础施工一直都是一个施工难题,本文详细介绍了应用于花都特大桥岩溶发育地区长桩基施工关键技术,为岩溶地区桩基础施工提供经验借鉴。     

建设工程保证担保的经济学理论新发展

建设工程保证担保是担保人应工程合同方要求,向其担保履约或做出其它形式的补偿。各地在推行工程保证担保制度过程中存在着一定的片面性,本文认为所有问题的解决都需要以工程保证担保的经济学理论研究为基础,通过构建制约和谐论,用以阐释实行工程保证担保制度的根本原因。     

我国房地产价格影响因素的实证分析——兼论当前房地产调控政策

本文采用2002年1季度至2011年3季度的经济数据构建向量自回归(VAR)模型,实证分析了影响我国房地产价格的主要因素,并重点研究房地产宏观调控政策对房地产价格的影响。研究结果表明:我国经济基本面已经很难解释当前房地产价格的走势,房地产调控政策成为影响我国房地产价格的重要因素。其中,土地政策和保障房政策对房地产价格的影响虽然存在一定时滞,但对房地产价格的影响是长期的且效果明显;货币政策和信贷政策对房地产价格的影响相对较小,存款准备金率的调整是最有效的货币政策工具。