Sectoral Survey‐based Confidence Indicators for Europe*

We analyse a novel dataset of Business and Consumer Surveys, using dynamic factor techniques, to produce composite coincident indices (CCIs) at the sectoral level for the European countries and for Europe. Surveys are timely available, not subject to revision, and fully comparable across countries. Moreover, the substantial discrepancies in activity at the sectoral level justify the interest in sectoral disaggregation. Compared with the confidence indicators produced by the European Commission we show that factor‐based CCIs, using survey answers at a more disaggregate level, produce higher correlation with the reference series for the majority of sectors and countries.     

Regulating Rates of Return Do Gravitate in US Manufacturing!

In this paper we test for the gravitation of regulating return rates, namely those return rates yielded by capital goods incorporating the best methods of production. We define them within a vintage capital model taking into consideration capacity utilization, capital depreciation and wages of workers using past capital vintages. We consider two data sets regarding US manufacturing activities and we find that gravitation does take place. Our results are contrasted with those of the previous literature. Research and policy implications are discussed.     

Beyond choice: investigating the sensitivity and validity of measures of strength of preference

Many experiments investigating different decision theories have relied heavily on pairwise choices between lotteries. These are easy to incentivise, but often yield only limited dichotomous information. This paper considers whether respondents’ judgments about their strength of preference (SoP) for one alternative over another can usefully supplement standard choice data. We report extensive evidence that such judgments show sensitivity to variations in question format and parameter values in the directions we should expect, not only within-subject but also between-sample. We illustrate how such judgments can usefully supplement standard pairwise choice data and enrich our understanding of observed behaviour.     

A Holy Alliance: Collusion in the Renaissance Europe Alum Market

On June 11, 1470, representatives of Pope Paul II and Ferdinand, King of Naples concluded a cartel agreement to restrict competition in the sale of alum. The agreement was one element of a broader plan to monopolize the sale of alum throughout Christendom. We discuss the background of the cartel agreement and analyze its terms (which include arrangements to facilitate detection of and reduce the profitability of defection) and the constraints that limited, but did not eliminate, Rome’s ability to extract economic profit from the European alum market.     

Great Recession and Macroeconomic Theory: A Useless Crisis?

ABSTRACT

The global financial crisis of 2007–08 and the subsequent Great Recession have pushed many economists to acknowledge a fundamental limit in the theoretical models elaborated after the monetarist counter-revolution: these models disregard the financial system. The years following the Great Recession have thus been marked by the development of what can be called the ‘Financial Frictions Approach’, a theoretical approach based on the addition of the financial system to the New Keynesian DSGE model. The results of this line of research are beginning to appear also in macroeconomics textbooks. Significant examples are the publication of the seventh edition of Blanchard’s textbook, and the publication of the third edition of the textbook co-authored by Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi. The objective of this work is twofold: (i) to show that the new model presented by Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, which reflects the results of the ‘Financial Frictions Approach’, does not allow to elaborate a coherent explanation of the Great Recession and (ii) to present the pillars of an alternative theoretical model based on the lessons of Keynes, Schumpeter and Minsky.     

The leverage effect and the basket-index put spread

Benchmark models that exogenously specify equity dynamics cannot explain the large spread in prices between put options written on individual banks and options written on the bank index during the financial crisis. However, theory requires that asset dynamics be specified exogenously and that endogenously determined equity dynamics exhibit a “leverage effect” that increases put prices by fattening the left tail of the distribution. The leverage effect is larger for puts on individual stocks than for puts on the index, thus increasing the basket-index spread. Time-series and cross-sectional variation in the leverage effect explains option prices well.     

Testing for the omission of relevant variables and regime-switching misspecification

Empirical Economics - This article shows that the interpretation of statistical evidence of regime-switching is not unambiguous. The usual interpretation is that some parameters switch according to...     

Randomised Mixture Models for Pricing Kernels

Numerous kinds of uncertainties may affect an economy, e.g. economic, political, and environmental ones. We model the aggregate impact by the uncertainties on an economy and its associated financial market by randomised mixtures of Lévy processes. We assume that market participants observe the randomised mixtures only through best estimates based on noisy market information. The concept of incomplete information introduces an element of stochastic filtering theory in constructing what we term “filtered Esscher martingales”. We make use of this family of martingales to develop pricing kernel models. Examples of bond price models are examined, and we show that the choice of the random mixture has a significant effect on the model dynamics and the types of movements observed in the associated yield curves. Parameter sensitivity is analysed and option price processes are derived. We extend the class of pricing kernel models by considering a weighted heat kernel approach, and develop models driven by mixtures of Markov processes.