I. Neuerscheinungen versicherungswissenschaftlicher Bücher

Schrifttum

I. Neuerscheinungen versicherungswissenschaftlicher Bücher Ausführliche Hinweise     

IN SEARCH OF A STYLISED FACT: DO REAL WAGES EXHIBIT A CONSISTENT PATTERN OF CYCLICAL VARIABILITY?

Abstract. The paper surveys the studies on the cyclical behaviour of real wages published from the twenties onwards. Both traditional simple neoclassical and keynesian models of the labour market suggest that real wages tend to move countercyclically. However, from a theoretical viewpoint, there are few reasons to expect this behaviour, once the simple model is extended to account for imperfect competition, uncertainty, lagged responses, or contracting between firms and workers. Empirical studies give different answers to the problem. The contributions reviewed in the paper are arranged roughly in chronological order: the interwar period, the postwar pre-econometric studies, the econometric work using aggregate data, the evidence produced on the basis of longitudinal data, the analyses of the shock-responsiveness of real wages, and, finally, the most recent papers attempting a reconciliation of the somewhat conflicting evidence derived from aggregate and panel data.     

Collapse of the purchasing power parity in the light of co-integrated variables?

Zusammenfassung Kollaps der Kaufkraftparit?tentheorie im Lichte ko-integrierter Variabler? - Dieser Aufsatz nimmt das Kaufkraftparit?tentheorem wieder auf und untersucht, (i) ob Wechselkurse (im Verh?ltnis zur Basisperiode) und die entsprechenden Preisdifferentiale ko-integriert sind und (ii) ob (au▾erdem) die Differenz zwischen den beiden Variablen station?r ist. Es wird argumentiert, da▾ die Gesamtkosten pro reale Produktionseinheit, die dem Deflator der Gesamtproduktion entsprechen, am besten geeignet sind, um die relative Wettbewerbsf?higkeit der Volkswirtschaft zu messen. Besonderer Wert wird auf den Wechselkurs der D-Mark gegenüber den anderen EWS-W?hrungen gelegt. Es wird statistisch nachgewiesen, da▾ der Logarithmus des Wechselkurses mit dem Logarithmus des entsprechenden Preisdifferentials ko-integriert ist und da▾ sich - mit einem h?heren Grad an Unsicherheit - die relative Kaufkraftparit?t bew?hrt.

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Résumé Collapsus de la parité de pouvoir d’achat en lumière des variables cointegrées? - Cet article s’occupe encore une fois de la parité de pouvoir d’achat (PPA) en analysant (i) si des taux de change (en relation à une période de base) et les différences de prix correspondantes sont co-intégrés et (ii) si (de plus) la différence des deux variables est stationnaire. L’auteur argue que les co?ts totaux par unité de la production totale qui sont identiques au déflateur de production totale sont très propres à mesurer la capacité concurrentielle relative d’une économie entière. L’attention particulière est prêtée au taux de change de la Deutschmark vis-à-vis les autres monnaies SME. Statistiquement, il est trouvé que le log du taux de change et le log de la différence de prix correspondante sont co-intégrés et que, avec un degré plus haut d’incertitude, la PPA relative est affirmée.

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Resumen ?Se derrumba la paridad del poder de compra a la luz de variables cointegradas? - Este trabajo reexamina el teorema de la paridad del poder de compra (PPP) investigando (a) si las tasas de cambio y las diferencias de precios correspondientes son cointegradas y (b) si la diferencia entre las dos variables es estacionaria. Se arguye que el costo total por unidad de producto real, igual al deflactor del producto total, se presta para medir la competitividad de la economía en su conjunto. Se enfatiza particularmente la tasa de cambio del Marco Alemán frente a otras monedas del sistema monetario europeo. Se encuentra evidencia estadística en favor de una cointegración del logaritmo de la tasa de cambio y del logaritmo de la diferencia de precios correspondiente; el teorema del PPP relativo resulta válido, mas a un nivel de incertidumbre más alto.

     

The Yugoslav inflation: Some competing hypotheses

Various hypotheses about wage and price inflation in Yugoslavia are presented and tested empirically with quarterly data from the 1962–1972 period. Both theoretical literature and empirical evidence on the behavior of the self-managed firm are used to derive different models of wage determination. The wage-equation results indicate that labor-market conditions, inflationary expectations; and labor-productivity variables are significant determinants of the rate of growth of wages. The price equations, based on a modified cost-markup model consistent with the practices of Yugoslav firms, identify labor costs and aggregate demand as significant determinants of the rate of growth of prices. University of California, Berkeley.     

International comparisons of expenditure patterns

The linear expenditure system (LES) of Stone (1954) is fitted to an eight-commodity classification of personal consumption expenditures in the national accounts data of 19 countries widely dispersed in the development spectrum. Cross-country comparison of the results reveals some discernible patterns in the variations of price and expenditure elasticities as a function of GNP per head. In particular, Food's own-price and expenditure elasticities are estimated to decline in absolute value as real GNP per head increases. Overall, own-price elasticities and cross-price elasticities with respect to food appear to account for about 80% of total price responsiveness in the fitted system.     

Institutional disparities in the pricing of adjustable rate mortgage loans

In recent years, commercial banks and savings and loan associations in South Florida have consistently offered initial adjustment period teasers, or subsidies, on their adjustable rate mortgage loans (ARMs). This study adopts the size of the initial subsidy as a proxy for a lender's willingness to offer ARM loans and develops an econometric model which relates the size of the teaser to a series of internal variables (other lending parameters), and external variables (financial market conditions).The results suggest that subsidization policies are not identical across institutions. Specifically, savings and loan associations seem to be less willing than commercial banks to accept the interest rate exposure inherent in ARM lending when future loan rates are constrained by adjustment limits. Consequently, the study argues that the character of a lender's existing assets influences its reactions to the risk/return properties of new assets.This paper has benefitted greatly from the comments of the Journal's reviewers. Responsibility for remaining errors rests with the author.     

Attributions and behavioral intentions of inexperienced salespersons to failure: An empirical investigation

The goal of this research was to determine how inexperienced sales representatives (rookies) interpret and respond to their sales failure situations. The authors studied 296 rookie financial services sales representatives'performance attributions for a previous unsuccessful sales interaction and their intended behaviors for a future, similar selling situation. This provided the authors the opportunity to compare their results with Dixon, Spiro and Jamil's (2001) findings for experienced sales representatives (veterans). In the event of a sales failure, rookies'responses do not parallel those of veterans. The results suggest that rookies are likely to engage in several inappropriate behaviors in response to failed sales encounters. Implications for managers and directions for future research are discussed. Andrea L. Dixon (Andrea. Dixon@uc.edu) (Ph.D., Indiana University) is an assistant professor of marketing at the University of Cincinnati. Her research focuses on selling behaviors, team selling, integrating technology and personal selling, and the role of developmental relationships in enhancing creativity and productivity in the sales division. The primary focus of her research is improving the performance of sales representatives and the sales organization or unit. She has published in theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, theJournal of Marketing, and theJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management. She currently serves on the editorial review boards of theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science and theJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management. Dixon is the vice chair for conference programming of the Selling and Sales Management Special Interest Group of the American Marketing Association. Rosann L. Spiro (spiro@ indiana.edu), Ph. D., is a professor of marketing and chairperson of the Marketing Department at Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana, where she teaches Sales Management, Personal Selling, International Marketing, Business-to-Business Marketing Strategy, and Managerial Research in Marketing. Her research interests focus on sales strategy, sales management, and personal selling. Her work has appeared in numerous publications, including theJournal of Marketing Research, theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Consumer Research, theJournal of Business, and theJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management. She currently serves on the editorial review boards of theJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management andMarketing Management. She is also a coauthor of a leading sales management text,Management of a Sales Force (11 th ed.). She formerly served as the chairperson of the Board of the American Marketing Association. Curtently she serves on an Advisory Board for the Univted States Bureau of Census and is the chair of the Selling and Sales Management Special Interest Group of the American Marketing Association. Lukas P. Forbes (Lukas.Forbes@wku.edu) is an assistant professor of marketing in the Gordon Ford College of Business at Western Kentucky University. He received his B.S. from the United States Military Academy at West Point, his M.B.A. from worcester Polytechnic Institute, and is completing his Ph.D. at the University of Kentucky. His research interests include personal selling, services, and product development. He has previously published in the American Marketing Association Educators and Frontiers in Services conference proceedings.     

Investment allocation: A comparison of the reform experiences of Hungary and Yugoslavia

Both Yugoslavia and Hungary, despite reform efforts, have continued to exhibit investment cycles. An analysis is presented of why the Yugoslav and Hungarian experiences have been so similar despite major institutional differences. An examination of three different capital allocation systems in Yugoslavia identifies both institutional and behavioral factors that undermine reform efforts and reproduce investment cycles not only in Yugoslavia, but also in Hungary and other socialist economies.     

Warrant price responses to credit spread changes: Fact or fiction?

We use a new approach to analyze the relationship between warrant prices and issuers’ credit spreads. This approach allows us to gain insights into whether issuers use their credit risk systematically to increase their profits. In a post‐Lehman sample, we find strong support for a systematic use since issuers decrease prices less after cred it spread increases than they increase prices after credit spread decreases. Credit spread decreases are accompanied by price increases on several successive days. This sluggish adjustment in prices can be explained by the fact that retail investors’ purchase decisions depend on product prices.