The interaction effect of gender and ethnicity in loan approval: A Bayesian estimation with data from a laboratory field experiment

Microfinance targets women and uses loan provision as a tool for empowerment, which translates into better household nutrition, improved education, and a scale down of domestic violence. However, ethnic discrimination in microfinance may exist in countries with a segregated indigenous population. We assessed this possibility with a field experiment in Bolivia. The controlled laboratory experiment evaluated whether credit officers rejected microloan applications based on the interaction effect of ethnicity and gender of potential borrowers. Point estimates of a Bayesian mixed‐effects logistic regression, estimated with the experimental data, indicate that nonindigenous women have double the chance of loan approval, but indigenous women have only 1.5 times the chance of loan approval when compared with men. While the findings about gender are limited, the evidence for the interaction of gender and ethnicity is more robust and suggests the existence of positive taste‐based discrimination favorable for nonethnic women in Bolivia. We conclude that the affirmative actions towards women promoted by development agencies and microfinance institutions must not overlook ethnicity as an important factor for financial policies of sustainable development. In practice, these policies should be aimed at identifying and reducing both social desirability bias and the structural barriers to financial inclusion that indigenous women may face when trying to obtain access to a loan.     

Trade shocks,product mix adjustment and productivity growth in Italian manufacturing

In this paper, we use firm-level data on the universe of Italian manufacturing multi-product exporters to test whether demand shocks in export markets lead multi-product exporters to increase their productivity. The main mechanism behind the documented productivity gains is the reallocation of resources across products within firms (American Economic Review, 104, 2014 and 495; National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 22433, 2016). Intuitively, the increased demand stemming from foreign markets will induce firms to adjust their product mix by moving inputs from low to high productive/profitable uses. We find that these productivity gains are significant and can explain between 1/10 and 1/2 of aggregate productivity growth in the manufacturing sector.     

Italy’s Political Upheaval and the Consequences of Inequality

Intereconomics - Political upheaval, with the dangerous rise of the far right – in Italy and Europe – is likely to be stabilised when politics and policies again turn their attention to...     

Revising the European Central Bank’s fiscal rules to support growth and employment

Abstract

The paper presents a reform proposal for the operations of the European Central Bank (ECB) whose purpose is to create a common set of risk-free assets for financial institutions operating in the euro area (EA), which is the necessary condition for having a single internal financial market. The proposal does not require the introduction of changes in the existing European Union treaties. The effects of this reform on the debt dynamic of EA member countries permit a revision of the existing fiscal rules. With the help of some simulations, it is shown that maintaining compliance with the European treaties, the reform of the ECB operations and revised fiscal rules would transform the current fiscal deflationary stance into a reflationary one. Some implications for aggregate demand and growth for the EA are briefly discussed.     

Climate Change and Asset Prices: Are Corporate Carbon Disclosure and Performance Priced Appropriately?

This paper empirically assesses the relevance of information on corporate climate change disclosure and performance to asset prices, and discusses whether this information is priced appropriately. Findings indicate that corporate disclosures of quantitative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and, to a lesser extent, carbon performance are value relevant. We use hand‐collected information on quantitative GHG emissions for 433 European companies and build portfolios based on GHG disclosure and performance. We regress portfolios on a standard four factor model extended for industry effects over the years 2005 to 2009. Results show that investors achieved abnormal risk‐adjusted returns of up to 13.05% annually by exploiting inefficiently priced positive effects of (complete) GHG emissions disclosure and good corporate climate change performance in terms of GHG efficiency. Results imply that, firstly, information costs involved in carbon disclosure and management do not present a burden on corporate financial resources. Secondly, investors should not neglect carbon disclosure and performance when making investment decisions. Thirdly, during the period analysed, financial markets were inefficient in pricing publicly available information on carbon disclosure and performance. Mandatory and standardised information on carbon performance would consequently not only increase market efficiency but result in better allocation of capital within the real economy.     

ARBITRAGE‐FREE BILATERAL COUNTERPARTY RISK VALUATION UNDER COLLATERALIZATION AND APPLICATION TO CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS

We develop an arbitrage‐free valuation framework for bilateral counterparty risk, where collateral is included with possible rehypothecation. We show that the adjustment is given by the sum of two option payoff terms, where each term depends on the netted exposure, i.e., the difference between the on‐default exposure and the predefault collateral account. We then specialize our analysis to credit default swaps (CDS) as underlying portfolios, and construct a numerical scheme to evaluate the adjustment under a doubly stochastic default framework. In particular, we show that for CDS contracts a perfect collateralization cannot be achieved, even under continuous collateralization, if the reference entity’s and counterparty’s default times are dependent. The impact of rehypothecation, collateral margining frequency, and default correlation‐induced contagion is illustrated with numerical examples.     

Do financial variables help predict the state of the business cycle in small open economies? Evidence from Switzerland

We analyze the forecasting ability of financial variables to predict the state of the Swiss business cycle up to eight quarters ahead. Overall, our results suggest that financial variables convey leading information for the prediction of business cycles, even when applied to a small open economy. However, we clearly find that model specifications need to be extended to include variables accounting for external shocks, such as exchange rates or international commodity prices. It also appears that the forecasting contribution of individual variables changes over time. Specifically, in the last two decades, stock market liquidity has replaced the term spread as the best single predictor.     

Handelsrestriktionen gegen Russland belasten sektoral und regional unterschiedlich stark

Wirtschaftsdienst - Die militärische Eskalation in der Ukraine sowie die aufgrund der Sanktionen einsetzenden Bremseffekte für die Kapital- und Handelsströme werden die deutsche...     

Heterogeneous Firms,Globalisation and the Distance Puzzle

Despite the strong pace of globalisation, the distance effect on trade is persistent or even growing over time (Disdier and Head, 2008). To solve this distance puzzle, we use the recently developed gravity equation estimator from Helpman et al. (2008) (HMR henceforth). Using three different data sets, we find that the distance coefficient increases over time when ordinary least squares (OLS) is used, while the non‐linear estimation of HMR leads to a decline in the distance coefficient over time. The distance puzzle, thus, arises from a growing bias of OLS estimates. The latter is explained by an increase in the importance of the bias from omitting the number of heterogeneous exporting firms relative to the bias from omitting zero trade flows. Furthermore, we show that including zero trade flows cannot solve the distance puzzle when using HMR. The HMR estimates are strongly correlated with the time pattern in freight costs reported by Hummels (2007).