Do Analysts' Cash Flow Forecasts Encourage Managers to Improve the Firm's Cash Flows? Evidence from Tax Planning

Recent research finds that analysts' cash flow forecasts have meaningful financial reporting ramifications, but, to date, the identified effects are unlikely to yield meaningful cash flow benefits. This study examines whether analysts' cash flow forecasts encourage managers to enhance the firm's cash flow position through tax avoidance activities. We evaluate the change in cash tax avoidance after analysts begin issuing cash flow forecasts relative to a propensity score matched control sample of firms without cash flow forecasts. Consistent with analysts' cash flow forecasts encouraging tax avoidance that enhances the firm's cash flow health, we find a negative association between cash tax payments and analysts' cash flow coverage. Additional analysis suggests this association is driven primarily by strategies to permanently avoid rather than to temporarily defer tax payments and that increased cash tax avoidance activity represents a nontrivial component of the overall increase in reported operating cash flows after the initiation of analysts' cash flow coverage.     

Dynamics of partisan representation the American south, 1898–2010

This study addresses institutional representation in legislative delegations through the decomposition of the southern U.S. House delegation over time. Linear first-order difference equations are calculated to show the shift from the Solid South and the disintegration of Democratic dominance. These calculations also show that the qualitative behavior of partisan control varies over time given a series of critical events, including the Dixiecrat experience, the Congressional reforms of the 1970s, and the Republican Revolution of 1994. However, I also argue that the Republican Revolution was actually predictable, given the twentieth-century experience of the southern delegation.     

Shut the fridge door! HRM alignment,job redesign and energy performance

Anchored within the strategic HRM and alignment literature, and drawing on efficiency and legitimacy perspectives of organisational behaviour, we investigated a HRM intervention targeted at energy reduction goals in a large multinational retailer. The HRM intervention was focused on embedding the environmental and economic performance goals of the firm within the workplace through redesigning the job so that energy tasks were aligned with training and performance management systems, as well as organisational performance goals. Using a randomised control trial design, we tracked changes in energy behaviours and energy consumption in 769 retail stores (685 in the intervention condition, 84 in the control condition). The findings provide evidence that changing the alignment of HRM practices can influence both worker behaviour and organisational outcomes, including environmental outcomes. This work contributes to debates concerning the impact of HRM alignment on both the work and organisational performance context.     

Learning from the world? Horizontal knowledge flows and geopolitics in international consulting firms

This paper examines the nature of the contemporary multinational corporation (MNC) through a study of the use of knowledge management systems (KMS) in four major international consulting firms. In particular, we explore whether and how such systems facilitate horizontal (inter-subsidiary) flows of knowledge, as described in the network view of the MNC. Our analysis reveals the presence of horizontal flows within the four firms, but flows that are contextually constrained and partly shaped by geopolitical power relations. Thus, our study gives some support to the image of the MNC as a network whilst highlighting the contextual limits of horizontal knowledge transfer and, importantly, the geopolitical conditions under which such knowledge transfer takes place. At the same time, it challenges the claim that consulting firms are model organizations in the area of knowledge management as well as the more negative view that questions the ability of KMS to facilitate knowledge transfer.     

Job Satisfaction in Britain

Little recent empirical work in economics or industrial relations has examined job satisfaction, despite its demonstrated correlation with labour market behaviour such as quits, absenteeism and productivity. This paper uses information from a study of 5000 British employees to investigate the relationship between three measures of job satisfaction and a wide range of individual and job characteristics. Notably, men, workers in their thirties, the well-educated, those working longer hours and workers in larger establishments have lower levels of job satisfaction. The estimated job satisfaction equations are used to calculate a measure of the shadow wage and to provide some evidence that is consistent with the existence of non-compensating differentials in the industry and occupational wage structure.     

Economic Growth Evens Out Happiness: Evidence from Six Surveys

In spite of the great U‐turn that saw income inequality rise in Western countries in the 1980s, happiness inequality has fallen in countries that have experienced income growth (but not in those that did not). Modern growth has reduced the share of both the “very unhappy” and the “perfectly happy.” Lower happiness inequality is found both between and within countries, and between and within individuals. Our cross‐country regression results suggest that the extension of various public goods helps to explain this greater happiness homogeneity. This new stylized fact arguably comes as a bonus to the Easterlin paradox, offering a somewhat brighter perspective for developing countries.     

Owning and testing smoke alarms: findings from a qualitative study

Reducing injury and death in house fires is an important public health intervention activity with the presence of an operating smoke alarm widely considered an important way of reducing harm from fire. Yet despite a number of initiatives and fire-safety campaigns, a number of households at greater risk of domestic fire fail to have a functioning alarm. This paper provides empirical insight into everyday experiences of owning, maintaining and testing smoke alarms among a purposive sample of individuals identified as being less likely to own a functioning smoke alarm. Analysis from focus group data identifies a number of reasons why individuals may not own or test an alarm, and provides new insight into how fire risk is understood in the context of a range of competing, and potentially more prominent, individual and household risks. We suggest that while initiatives that aim to reduce fire injury and death should be continued, their success, and indeed future research on fire risk, should pay attention to the mundane and everyday contexts within which individuals currently rarely reflect on their risk of experiencing a domestic fire.     

Housing Transactions and the Changing Decisions of Young Households in Britain: The Microeconomic Evidence

In this second of two related papers in this issue, the causes of declining levels of housing transactions in Britain during the 1990s are explored. The lower transaction levels resulted partly from the changing behavior of young individuals. Both household formation and owner–occupation rates of these groups also fell sharply. Using panel data, we investigate the causes of reduced new household formation and owner–occupation, finding that changes in the income distribution away from young cohorts have been an important factor.     

An analysis of repressed inflation in two transition economies

We construct a simple model that tests for repressed inflation by estimating a true rate of inflation that explains behavior of observed money demand. We estimate the model using quarterly data for Czechoslovakia and Poland. Although our results should be viewed as preliminary, given the imperfect nature of our data, we do have strong evidence that, prior to 1991, there was considerable repressed inflation in Poland, while there was essentially no repressed inflation in Czechoslovakia.This paper was funded by a World Bank project on formerly planned economies. We would like to thank Jong-goo Park for suggesting the topic, and Fabrizio Coricelli and Adnan Mazarei for helpful discussions. The views expressed here are our own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the World Bank.