Did Leaving the Gold Standard Tame the Business Cycle? Evidence from NBER Reference Dates and Real GNP

Cover and Pecorino (2005) claim that the March 1933 departure from the gold standard is the most probable break point ushering in an era of longer U.S. expansions, both absolutely and relative to subsequent recessions. Their analysis is based on cycle durations as defined by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reference dates. However, much of macroeconomic analysis is based on (i) growth cycles (i.e., periods when the economy's production is above or below trend) rather than absolute increases or decreases in economic activity; and (ii) aggregate time series' volatility as the prime indicator of macroeconomic stability. In light of this, we reevaluate the March 1933 break point. First, using HP‐filtered quarterly gross national product (GNP), our analysis of growth cycle durations still implies a break point near 1933. Second, we test for structural breaks in the volatility of GNP growth rates and deviations from trends. These tests suggest a structural break considerably later than 1933, perhaps as late as the 1950s.     

New development: Fundraising in UK charities—stepping back from the abyss

Fundraising techniques used by charities can enhance or diminish public trust. The dangers of questionable and over-aggressive fundraising practices are very real. In particular, in the UK, the ‘Olive Cooke affair’ in 2015 triggered a highlevel examination of fairly widespread dubious practices. In this article, the reflections of a key actor on the events surrounding the affair, and subsequent fallout, are examined. It is argued that this whole saga has the potential to encourage the development of a charity sector that is more trusted by the public; a sector that has stepped back from the abyss.     

Changing Perceptions of Maturity Mismatch in the U.S. Banking System: Evidence from Equity Markets

We use the sensitivity of bank holding company equity returns to market interest rates as an indicator of perceived maturity mismatch. Based on data from 1990 to 2009, there is only weak evidence that market participants perceived banks to be effectively short‐funded. However, looking at 1990–1996 and 1997–2009 subsamples separately, our results suggest that U.S. commercial banks were perceived as short‐funded during the earlier time period but not the later. During this time of changing perceptions of maturity mismatch, banks were increasing their holdings of real estate loans as a share of total assets. We present evidence that, subsequent to 1996, market participants perceived real estate loans as having become effectively shorter‐term.     

External Imbalances and Fiscal Fragility in the Euro Area

This paper presents two views of the European sovereign debt crisis. The first is that countries in the South of the Eurozone were fiscally irresponsible and failed to implement pro-competitive supply side policies. The second view holds that the crisis reflects a deep divide between the external surpluses of the North and external deficits of the South. Basic stylized facts cast doubt on the explanation based on the first thesis alone. A relatively simple model shows how poor fundamentals can create a debt problem independently of fiscal responsibility. The empirical analysis of the determinants of government bond yield spreads relative to Germany suggests that both views in fact provide useful insights into the roots of the current sovereign crisis. However, differences in growth and competitiveness and capital flows between North and South have assumed a much more dominant role since the onset of the global crisis.     

Field Experiment Tests for Discrimination against Hispanics in the U.S. Rental Housing Market

This article tests for discrimination against Hispanics in the U.S. rental housing market using e‐mail correspondence with landlords advertising units online. We divide Hispanics into two groups: those that appear assimilated into American culture and recent immigrants. We find little difference in the treatment of assimilated Hispanics and whites; however, Hispanics we portray as recent immigrants receive less favorable treatment with margins of net discrimination as large as 6.89% of landlords. We also find discrimination varies significantly at the region level and by the ethnic composition of neighborhoods.