中国油价上涨 将压力转向消费者

【美国《华尔街日报》6月20日】面对原油价格突破每桶130美元给政府控制下的能源定价体系造成的冲击,中国政府宣布将上调汽油、柴油和电力的零售价格。     

The cost of agricultural production risk

We examine the relative influence of preferences and technology on producers' ex ante willingness to pay for a reduction in production risk. A risk averse producer pays both an Arrow-Pratt risk premium to stabilize income and a ‘production premium’ to stabilize yield. Using soil-nitrate risks as our motivating example, we demonstrate that the production premium accounts for 40-85% of producers' willingness to pay for risk reduction. These results demonstrate the relative importance of technology over risk preferences when estimating the costs of agricultural production risk.     

通胀难题席卷全球

几年的相对稳定期过后,价格上涨风潮现已横扫全球。它来得很不是时候。一段时间以来美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）连续大幅下调利率,Fed之所以与治理通货膨胀的常规策略背道而驰,为的是防范房产市场崩溃和信贷危机演化成为经济的长时间严重衰退。这就使得这场针对通货膨胀的全球战役变得更加艰难和复杂。     

Running the Numbers on Lotteries and the Poor: An Empirical Analysis of Transfer Payment Distribution and Subsequent Lottery Sales

State lottery revenues are shown to increase during the week transfer payments are distributed. The timing of the increase in lottery purchases suggests a portion of the transfer payments is used to purchase lottery tickets. In addition to providing information on the timing of lottery purchases, this study finds sales of Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets increase during the period, while sales of Pick 5 and Pick 6 games do not, suggesting a general preference for the relatively higher probability, smaller jackpot games for the group.

Stable and enforceable: a new fiscal framework for the Euro area

Since the great financial crash, the need for new fiscal rules to prevent unsustainable fiscal policies is universally recognised. In practice such rules, including those in the Stability and Growth Pact, have proved to be impossible to enforce. Thus, to avoid unsustainable fiscal policies reappearing, and to prevent monetary policy from being undermined by undisciplined governments, there is a need for a framework capable of imposing fiscal discipline. This paper considers an intertemporal assignment, where fiscal policy focuses on long-term objectives and monetary policy on short-term stabilisation. We argue for public sector debt targets as a practical way to achieve such a set up, and an excess debt protocol is constructed to give enforceable form to those targets. The ideas of “fiscal space” and optimal debt levels are used to provide a mechanism for identifying a stable region within which the debt targeting regime should operate. Making these factors explicit would both improve the credibility of planned fiscal policies and reduce risk premia on borrowing costs. We finally show how Europe’s competitiveness pact, and debt restructuring operations, can be used to maximise the available fiscal space.     

周小川提议创造新的国际储备货币

【美国《华尔街日报》3月24日】中国呼吁创造一种新的国际储备货币,最终取代美元。这种提出大规模改革国际金融体系的做法反映出发展中国家对美国在世界经济中所扮演角色的不满。     

SAMPLING FRAMES FOR FARM SURVEYS IN THE U.K.: SOME ALTERNATIVES

The lack of a suitable sampling frame can be a major problem facing those who wish to gather information from farm surveys but who do not have access to comprehensive lists of agricultural holdings. This paper considers two alternatives. The feasibility and sampling efficiency of using the natural clusters of farms contained within parishes is first examined using information gained from a survey of farms in the Vale of the White Horse District of Oxfordshire. The same survey also provides an opportunity to evaluate the suitability of ‘Yellow Pages’ Telephone Directories as a sampling frame for farm surveys. It is concluded that surveys based on such a frame will provide estimates of the values of population parameters sufficiently accurate for most purposes.