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51.
Cover and Pecorino (2005) claim that the March 1933 departure from the gold standard is the most probable break point ushering in an era of longer U.S. expansions, both absolutely and relative to subsequent recessions. Their analysis is based on cycle durations as defined by National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) reference dates. However, much of macroeconomic analysis is based on (i) growth cycles (i.e., periods when the economy's production is above or below trend) rather than absolute increases or decreases in economic activity; and (ii) aggregate time series' volatility as the prime indicator of macroeconomic stability. In light of this, we reevaluate the March 1933 break point. First, using HP‐filtered quarterly gross national product (GNP), our analysis of growth cycle durations still implies a break point near 1933. Second, we test for structural breaks in the volatility of GNP growth rates and deviations from trends. These tests suggest a structural break considerably later than 1933, perhaps as late as the 1950s. 相似文献
52.
53.
Andrew Hind 《公共资金与管理》2017,37(3):205-210
Fundraising techniques used by charities can enhance or diminish public trust. The dangers of questionable and over-aggressive fundraising practices are very real. In particular, in the UK, the ‘Olive Cooke affair’ in 2015 triggered a highlevel examination of fairly widespread dubious practices. In this article, the reflections of a key actor on the events surrounding the affair, and subsequent fallout, are examined. It is argued that this whole saga has the potential to encourage the development of a charity sector that is more trusted by the public; a sector that has stepped back from the abyss. 相似文献
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Andrew J. Seltzer 《Cliometrica》2007,1(3):239-261
This paper uses personnel records of employees from an Australian bank to analyse the labour market consequences of career
interruptions due to voluntary military service during the Second World War. The records contain the employees’ career position
and pay histories, and pre-war outcomes are used to control for selection bias caused by non-random enlistment. It is shown
that, despite losing human capital during the War, upon their return veterans did not face a wage penalty relative to non-volunteers.
Finally, evidence from non-wage outcomes suggests that the absence of a wage penalty was a form of positive discrimination
by the Bank.
相似文献
Andrew J. SeltzerEmail: |
57.
Richard Abel argues that in the period from 1910, when the motionpicture "revolution" succeeded and the American film marketwas emancipated from French domination, to 1914, when foreignfilms were nearly eliminated from the U.S. market, the Americanfilm industry was characterized by widespread experimentationand innovation, especially in the areas of promotion practices,distribution strategies, content refinement, and audience development.Six chapters of Abel's Americanizing the Movies bring to theforeground the battle of 相似文献
58.
Fergus BolgerAuthor Vitae Andrew StranieriAuthor VitaeGeorge WrightAuthor Vitae John YearwoodAuthor Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2011,78(9):1671-1680
We investigate the relative impact of internal Delphi process factors - including panelists' degree of confidence, expertise, majority/minority positioning - and an external factor, richness of feedback - on opinion change and subsequent accuracy of judgmental forecasts. We found that panelists who had low confidence in their judgmental forecast and/or who were in a minority were more likely to change their opinion than those who were more confident and/or in a majority. The addition of rationales, or reasons, to the numeric feedback had little impact upon panelists' final forecasts, despite the quality of panelists' rationales being significantly positively correlated with accurate forecasts and thus of potential use to aid forecast improvement over Delphi rounds. Rather, the effect of rationales was similar to that of confidence: to pull panelists towards the majority opinion regardless of its correctness. We conclude that majority opinion is the strongest influence on panelists' opinion change in both the ‘standard’ Delphi, and Delphi-with-reasons. We make some suggestions for improved variants of the Delphi-with-reasons technique that should help reduce majority influence and thereby permit reasoned arguments to exert their proper pull on opinion change, resulting in forecast accuracy improvements over Delphi rounds. 相似文献
59.
Andrew Abbott 《Economics Letters》2011,111(3):230-232
This paper tests for differences in the cyclicality of government spending across functional categories. Evidence from 20 OECD countries suggests that procyclicality is more likely in smaller functional budgets, but capital spending is more likely to be procyclical for the larger spending categories. 相似文献
60.
We examine the effect of a federally-funded local infrastructure spending program on local unemployment rates. To address the likely funding endogeneity problem, we exploit variation in spending due to pork-barreling, and find that higher government expenditure on roads substantially reduces local unemployment. 相似文献