Ex-post Analysis of Mobile Telecom Mergers: The Case of Austria and The Netherlands

Recently there has been an increased attention towards the ex-post evaluation of competition policy enforcement decisions and in particular merger decisions. In this paper we study the effects of two mobile telecommunication mergers on prices. We apply a standard difference-in-differences approach which is widely used in the literature on ex-post evaluation of mergers. For the Austrian T-Mobile/tele.ring merger, we conclude that after the acquisition (for which remedies were imposed) prices in Austria did not increase relative to the considered control countries. For the Dutch T-Mobile/Orange merger, we observe an increase in the mobile tariff prices in the Netherlands in the analysed period, relative to the control countries. We cannot firmly establish whether this price increase was exclusively caused by the T-Mobile/Orange merger or in part by possible price effects brought about by the KPN/Telfort merger consummated two years earlier in the Netherlands. However, we believe that such price increase could be linked to the structural changes brought by both KPN/Telfort and T-Mobile/Orange mergers together.     

Foreign currency debt, risk premia and macroeconomic volatility

This paper studies the relationships between foreign currency debt, macroeconomic volatility, and risk premia in a model of a small open emerging market economy. The external value of the local currency is counter-cyclical, so that foreign currency debt requires larger repayments than local currency debt in bad states of nature. The level of foreign currency-denominated debts, therefore, affects the volatility of aggregate demand and by extension of the exchange rate. Exchange rate volatility is in turn an important determinant of the risk premium on local currency debt. Finally, this risk premium is a major factor in the choice of local versus foreign currency for emerging market borrowers. The mutual endogeneity of foreign currency debt, risk premia, and macroeconomic volatility creates important feedback effects in the economy: small increases in international risk aversion may entail large amplification effects on macroeconomic volatility since domestic borrowers substitute towards cheaper but riskier foreign currency debt finance.     

Is the world economy about to disintegrate?

There have been increasing warnings lately that the world economy is in danger of disintegrating. How realistic are such fears? Could the world's trading partners have a serious interest in such a development and be prepared to accept the risks involved? The following three articles seek to answer these questions.     

IX. Geld und kapital

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

VALUING BLUE FLAG STATUS AND ESTUARINE WATER QUALITY IN MARGATE,SOUTH AFRICA1

This study estimates the costs associated with reduced water quality and withdrawal of Blue Flag status in Margate, Kwazulu‐Natal, based on travel costs and contingent behaviour (reported change in visits contingent on a hypothetical scenario). Costs associated with hypothetical loss of Blue Flag status (based on reduced visits) range between R17 and R25 million per annum. Interestingly, Blue Flag status was withdrawn shortly after completion of the survey, owing to reduced water quality. This study therefore provides an estimate of the associated welfare losses, and of the benefits of actions to improve water quality and restore Blue Flag status.