Risk-type density diagrams by crash type on two-lane rural roads

The research presented here aims to plot density diagrams per road crash risk type to identify all possible scenarios where driving is less than safe. The starting point was the prediction of injury crash rate on horizontal homogeneous segments of two-lane rural roads for three main injurious crash types (head-on/side collisions, rear-end crashes, and single-vehicle run-off-road crashes) as observed on the network. A careful analysis of the database shows that a wide variety of factors appear to be influenced or associated with the crash dynamic, as follows: the road scenario (combination of infrastructure and environmental conditions found at the site at the time of the crash), mean lane width, the horizontal curvature indicator (measurement of the curvature change rate), and mean speed. Crashes recorded from 2003 to 2010, of which 1597 were injurious, and 645 resulted only in damage to property, were analyzed on more than 3700?km of road network in Southern Italy. Generalized estimating equations with a negative binomial distribution were implemented. Risk-type density charts were plotted to thoroughly identify all possible combinations of existing explicative variables producing hazardous conditions on the road. The different shades in the diagrams represent different ranges of injurious crash rates: the white band shows low levels, while a black band shows high values. It is not possible to consider working on an explanatory variable to reduce hazardous conditions on the road network without also considering how this variation might affect the influence of the remaining explanatory variables on crash phenomena and, consequently, on the predictive model. The risk maps make it possible to keep under control in a simple and immediate approach the way each variable as a result of variations of a part or of all.     

Monotone dependence in graphical models for multivariate Markov chains

We show that a deeper insight into the relations among marginal processes of a multivariate Markov chain can be gained by testing hypotheses of Granger noncausality, contemporaneous independence and monotone dependence. Granger noncausality and contemporaneous independence conditions are read off a mixed graph, and the dependence of an univariate component of the chain on its parents—according to the graph terminology—is described in terms of stochastic dominance criteria. The examined hypotheses are proven to be equivalent to equality and inequality constraints on some parameters of a multivariate logistic model for the transition probabilities. The introduced hypotheses are tested on real categorical time series.     

Regularity and Pareto improving on financial equilibria with price-dependent borrowing restrictions

We consider a pure exchange, general equilibrium model, with two periods and a finite number of states, commodities, numeraire assets, and households. Participation in the asset markets is restricted in a household specific manner, imposing upper bounds on the amounts of borrowing which can be obtained using assets. Those bounds are assumed to depend on asset and commodity prices. After establishing existence of equilibria, we show that, generically in the set of the economies, equilibria are finite and regular. Then, we restrict our attention to the significant set of economies in which some associated equilibria exhibit a sufficiently high number of strictly binding participation constraints. We prove that, generically in that set, those equilibria are Pareto improvable through a local change of the participation constraints.     

THE INFLUENCE OF DIFFERENT FORMS OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH

This paper deals with the influence of different types of government expenditure on growth in a post‐Keynesian framework. The analysis considers a government sector with a balanced budget and an autonomous and non‐linear investment function, interpreted along a Kaleckian and a Classical‐Harrodian line. It shows under which conditions different types of government expenditure are beneficial or detrimental for economic growth, comparing some results with those reached by Barro in his 1990 Journal of Political Economy article, and points out the emergence of phenomena like multiple equilibria, hysteresis and low growth traps.     

The Breakdown of Idiosyncratic Volatility Into Expected and Unexpected Components and Its Effects on Stock Returns in Brazil

Based on studies of idiosyncratic volatility developed in the recent literature, this study analyzes its relation with expected returns through the breakdown of idiosyncratic volatility in the Brazilian stock market and presents evidence of the importance of expected idiosyncratic volatility for asset pricing. We study the impact of the expected and unexpected components of idiosyncratic volatility on the returns of shares listed on the BOVESPA between 2004 and 2011. The results show a strong positive and significant relation between expected idiosyncratic volatility and returns. This evidence is highlighted when we use unexpected idiosyncratic volatility to control for unexpected returns. Additional robustness tests, controlling for size and momentum effects, also have positive and significant coefficients, corroborating previous findings.     

Pricing Bonds and Bond Options with Default Risk

The pricing of bonds and bond options with default risk is analysed in the general equilibrium model of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985). This model is extended by means of an additional parameter in order to deal with financial and credit risk simultaneously. The estimation of such a parameter, which can be considered as the market equivalent of an agencies' bond rating, allows to extract from current quotes the market perceptions of firm's credit risk. The general pricing model for defaultable zero-coupon bond is first derived in a simple discrete-time setting and then in continuous-time. The availability of an integrated model allows for the pricing of default-free options written on defaultable bonds and of vulnerable options written either on default-free bonds or defaultable bonds. A comparison between our results and those given by Jarrow and Turnbull (1995) is also presented.     

Vocational skills in the accounting professional profile: the Chartered Institute of Management Accountants (CIMA) employers' opinion

The increasingly dynamic environment in which accountants work has necessitated a reorientation of accounting education. In some countries this issue has raised great interest amongst accounting educators and practitioners. The ongoing debate has already resulted in the publication of several statements and research papers that have raised the question of the relevance of the role of vocational skills in accounting education. Examples of these vocational skills are communication skills, interpersonal skills, and problem-solving skills. This paper reports on the importance that the employers of management accountants gave to a specified set of vocational skills and capabilities and the level of ability of these skills exhibited by students. In order to prioritize future developments an integrated analysis of the two attributes, importance and exhibited level, is enabled by the use of strategic mapping. The results of this study suggest that the employers perceive deficiencies in several capabilities that they have identified as being quite important. These deficiencies exist, in the employers' opinion, both prior to recruitment and on professional qualification. The research also indicates that, in the opinion of these employers, the development of these skills should be a central concern for universities and professional bodies. The employers also indicated that vocational skills should be attained in an integrated way.     

National telecommunications planning in Brazil

During the past 15 years Brazil has undergone a process of rapid modernization in its telecommunications. Starting from a chaotic situation, institutional foundations were established and an ambitious development programme carried out. A fundamental piece of this programme was a planning process that proved to be flexible and adequate to handle the social and economic disparities of the country. The policies that have emerged from the planning process were implemented and provided good economic results and satisfaction to customers.