Asset pricing and energy consumption risk

This paper proposes energy consumption in the US as a new measure for the consumption capital asset pricing model. We find that (i) industrial energy growth produces reasonable values for the relative risk aversion coefficient and the implied risk-free rate; (ii) compared to alternative consumption measures, industrial energy performs well in explaining the cross-sectional variation in stock returns with the lowest implied risk aversion and pricing errors; (iii) the industrial energy consumption risk model performs equally well as the Fama–French three-factor model in the cross-sectional asset pricing tests; and (iv) total energy consumption risk is priced in the presence of the Fama–French factor risks.     

城市化与畜产品生产预测：健康与环境风险调整法

集约化农业生产所带来的环境影响和健康危害已经使人们逐渐认识到建立可持续农业发展途径的必要性。随着人们收入的增长,城市化的迅速发展成为消费模式转变的最为显见的驱动力。揭示在考虑到可持续发展的风险和不确定性的情况下对未来农业生产规划的预测,和在决策过程中恰当的风险指标,而这些内容的引入将极可能改变与畜产品设备配置和集约化程度相关的未来政策。以中国为例,研究主要目标为:(1)阐明如何将风险指标引入到决策过程中从而避免健康风险带来的负面结果;(2)阐明如何在农业生产规划中明确风险和不确定性,以达到可持续农业发展。     

Estimating net lottery revenues for states

Based on 1980–95 data, this paper estimates and forecasts net lottery revenues for states with and without lotteries. This study indicates that a multi-state estimation is improved when a time-series and cross-section technique is used. Forecasting results are also improved when unequal time series in the data and less-than-full first years of operating lottery are controlled. For states without lotteries, the time-series and cross-section estimation indicates that only two of 14 states without a lottery would have generated net lottery revenue of more than $100 million. The number increases to five of 14 in the cross-section estimation.     

Recurrent PSA after prostatectomy for prostate cancer: implications of PSA doubling time

After radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, men frequently develop detectable levels of prostate specific antigen (PSA). A slow rate of increase, as characterized by the PSA doubling time (PSADT) is the principal marker for a favorable prognosis. Data and results presented in 2 recent clinical articles studying cohorts of men with clinical stage T1/T2 prostate cancer are reviewed and used to develop mortality analyses. Life-table analysis shows a mortality ratio of 257% at 5 years for Gleason score < 8, PSA recurrence > 2 years after surgery for clinical stage T1/T2 disease, and PSA doubling time (PSADT) > 10 months. Markov modeling using transition probabilities derived from the clinical articles to develop a life table analysis yields a mortality ratio of 145% at 10 years for similar patients.     

Making tourism work for the poor: Strategies and challenges in southern Africa

This article analyses strategies for 'pro-poor tourism' (PPT), ie strategies that increase the benefits to poor people from tourism development. Based on an international review of six pro-poor tourism case studies, it outlines the wide range of pro-poor tourism strategies used and their impacts to date, with particular focus on southern African case studies. By analysing their progress, problems and the critical factors influencing them, the article identifies implications for the way forward. This review underpins four propositions. First, despite commercial constraints, much can be done to enhance the contribution of tourism to poverty reduction, and a 'PPT' perspective assists in this endeavour. Secondly, PPT strategies can, and should be, incorporated by all actors in tourism, whether in government or business, at local or policy level. Thirdly, a wide range of impacts on poor people, going well beyond jobs, need to be recognised and enhanced. Finally, PPT strategies are difficult, but particularly relevant in southern Africa given the challenges of economic and political transformation, as well as the opportunity to influence international discussions on 'sustainable tourism' at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in 2002.     

城市化与畜产品生产预测:健康与环境风险调整法

集约化农业生产所带来的环境影响和健康危害已经使人们逐渐认识到建立可持续农业发展途径的必要性.随着人们收入的增长,城市化的迅速发展成为消费模式转变的最为显见的驱动力.揭示在考虑到可持续发展的风险和不确定性的情况下对未来农业生产规划的预测,和在决策过程中恰当的风险指标,而这些内容的引入将极可能改变与畜产品设备配置和集约化程度相关的未来政策.以中国为例,研究主要目标为:(1)阐明如何将风险指标引入到决策过程中从而避免健康风险带来的负面结果;(2)阐明如何在农业生产规划中明确风险和不确定性,以达到可持续农业发展.