Explainable AI: from black box to glass box

Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science -     

Can the small dairy farm remain competitive in US agriculture?

Smaller dairy farms in the US are observed to have higher costs than larger farms, and whether those higher costs are due to technology or inefficiency has implications for policy to address the small farm. If high cost of production on smaller farms is due to a higher cost frontier, then to make small farms competitive would require research to devise and design technology that is suitable for small farms. If instead high cost is due to inefficiency, then educational approaches are needed to ensure small dairy farms use technology efficiently. To determine the cause of higher costs on small farms, the cost of milk production by farm size was decomposed into frontier and efficiency components with a stochastic cost curve using data on USA dairy farms. Although the frontier cost of production decreases with farm size, that cost reduction is not as pronounced as a cost curve that includes inefficiency. The higher cost of production on many smaller farms is caused by inefficiency rather than technology.     

Impact of off-farm labor supply on food expenditures of the farm household

Farm households diversify their income sources by working off the farm. This is a risk management strategy that is used by farm households in both developed and developing countries. Income diversification via off-farm work is associated with higher incomes and food consumption. However, little is known about the association between off-farm work and farm household food expenditures. In an effort to bridge this gap, this study attempts to assess the impact of off-farm work decisions by the operator and/or the spouse on the food expenditures of the farm household. Using a nationwide farm household survey in the United States and new econometric method, we find that the decisions of the operator and/or the spouse to work off the farm are significantly interrelated (29%). However, these two decisions affect food expenditures in different ways. The operator’s off-farm work decision is positively related to food expenditures, while the spouse’s decision is negatively associated with expenditures on food by the farm household.     

An econometric study on the relationship between unemployment and vacancies in the United Kingdom

Zusammenfassung Eine ?konometrische Studie über die Beziehung zwischen Arbeitslosigkeit und offenen Stellen im Vereinigten K?nigreich. — Dieser Aufsatz soll zeigen, da\ die stabile Beziehung zwischen echter Arbeitslosigkeit und echten offenen Stellen seit 1966 unterbrochen ist. Au\erdem sollen die Faktoren untersucht werden, die die Beziehung zwischen echter Arbeitslosigkeit und echten offenen Stellen bestimmen, wobei einerseits ein ?konometrisches Modell, das auf nichtbeobachtbare Variable besonders eingeht, und andererseits eine neoklassische Theorie der überschu\nachfrage herangezogen wird. Die allgemeine Hypothese in diesem Artikel lautet, da\ sowohl die echte als auch die registrierte oder gemessene H?he der Arbeitslosigkeit infolge verschiedener Gesetze und/oder des Rückgangs der wirtschaftlichen Aktivit?t angestiegen ist. Anschlie\end werden zwei weitere Modelle konstruiert, um die Rolle der Nachfrage- und Angebotsfaktoren zu analysieren.

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Résumé Une étude économétrique sur la relation entre le ch?mage et les vacances en Royaume-Uni. — Le but de cet article est de démontrer que la relation stable entre le vrai ch?mage et les vrais vacances a croulé depuis 1966 et d’analyser les facteurs qui déterminent les relations entre le vrai ch?mage et les vrais vacances en appliquant séparément des modèles économétriques avec des variables inobservables et une théorie néoclassique de la demande d’excès. Notre hypothèse générale est que le montant du vrai ch?mage et le montant du ch?mage régistré ou mesuré augmentaient comme conséquence de la législation gouvernementale et/ou de la baisse de l’activité économique. Finalement, l’auteur construit deux modèles de plus pour analyser le r?le des facteurs de demande et d’offre.

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Resumen Un estudio econométrico sobre la relación entre empleo y vacantes en el Reino Unido. — Los objetivos de este artículo son mostrar que la relación estable entre desempleo verdadero y vacantes verdaderas se ha quebrado a partir de 1966 y también analizar los factores subyacentes a las relaciones de desempleo verdadero y vacantes verdaderas separadamente, usando modelos econométricos con variables no observables y una teoría neoclásica de exceso de demanda. Nuestra hipótesis general es que tanto la cantidad verdadera de desempleo y el desempleo registrado o medido creció como consecuencia de la legislación gubernamental y/o la declinación en la actividad económica. Finalmente, formulamos dos modelos adicionales para analizar el rol de factores de demanda y oferta.

     

Credit Fluctuations and Lodging Firms: An Investigation of the Differing Capital Structures in the U.S. Lodging Industry

In the area of corporate finance, decisions regarding the constituents of overall capital structure are the most critical. These financing decisions are even more critical to lodging firms because of the unique nature of the industry. This study empirically investigates the effect of credit availability on the leverage of the lodging industry in the U.S. using multivariate analysis of variance. Three time points of differing credit availability (low, high, and average) were identified using the Case-Shiller home price index. Leverage, net leverage, and short-to-long-term debt ratios of large and small U.S. lodging firms were analyzed at these differing credit availability time points to assess any significant differences. Significant effects of credit availability were found on the leverage and net leverage of lodging firms, but no significant effect was found on the short- to long-term debt ratio of U.S. lodging firms. Interestingly, the leverage levels were found to be highest at the average availability of credit than when compared to the high and low availability of credit.     

Investment effects of departures from governmental present-value budget balance

The paper investigates whether departures from government borrowing constraints affect the relationship between fiscal-policy innovations and changes in the investment level. ‘Break points’, or apparent departures from present-value budget balance, are then identified. Next, the investment-deficit relationship is examined prior to and following identified break points in an effort to detect potential changes in behaviour. The investment-deficit relationship is quantified by examining posterior coverage bounds of impulse response functions. Britain appears to undergo such a break around 1973. Data from this country suggest that significantly more crowding out occurred following the identified breaks: in contrast, data from other comparison countries that do not appear to have experienced breaks indicate stable investment-deficit relationships.